Statistics of Cosmological Black Hole Jet Sources: Blazar Predictions for GLAST

A study of the statistics of cosmological black-hole jet sources is applied to EGRET blazar data, and predictions are made for GLAST. Black-hole jet sources are modeled as collimated relativistic plasma outflows with radiation beamed along the jet axis due to strong Doppler boosting. The comoving rate density of blazar flares is assumed to follow a blazar formation rate (BFR), modeled by analytic functions based on astronomical observations and fits to EGRET data. The redshift and size distributions of gamma-ray blazars observed with EGRET, separated into BL Lac object (BL) and flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) distributions, are fit with monoparametric functions for the distributions of the jet Lorentz factor \Gamma, comoving directional power l'_e, and spectral slope. A BFR factor ~10 x greater at z ~ 1 than at present is found to fit the FSRQ data. A smaller comoving rate density and greater luminosity of BL flares at early times compared to the present epoch fits the BL data. Based on the EGRET observations, ~1000 blazars consisting of ~800 FSRQs and FR2 radio galaxies and ~200 BL Lacs and FR1 radio galaxies will be detected with GLAST during the first year of the mission. Additional AGN classes, such as hard-spectrum BL Lacs that were mostly missed with EGRET, could add more GLAST sources. The FSRQ and BL contributions to the EGRET gamma-ray background at 1 GeV are estimated at the level of ~10 - 15% and ~2 - 4%, respectively. EGRET and GLAST sensitivities to blazar flares are considered in the optimal case, and a GLAST analysis method for blazar detection is outlined.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, ApJ, in press, v.660, May 1, 2007 (minor changes from previous version

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE INDRAWATI RIVER BASIN, NEPAL

Abstract. This study details climate change assessment of the hydrological regime of Indrawati basin of Nepal. The study uses Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to delineate, discretize and parameterize the Indrawati basin to compute model's input parameters. The model was then run for 1990–2014 to simulate the discharge at the outlet (Dholalghat). The coefficient of determination R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) were used to evaluate model calibration and validation. The results found were satisfactory for the gauging station R2 = 0.951 and ENS = 0.901 for calibration and R2 = 0.937 and. ENS = 0.906 for validation. The calibrated hydrological model was run for the future climate change scenario using the RegCM4-LMDZ4 data and the relative changes with the baseline scenarios were analyzed. The comparison suggests that the historical trend of flow is decreasing at the rate of 0.55 m3/s per year. According to RegCM4-LMDZ4 simulations, the trend is going to continue but at a flatter rate. The decreasing trend is observed to be very less. The characteristic peak flow month in the historical scenario is August but the RegCM4-LMDZ4 led simulated flows suggest a shift in monthly peak to October suggesting decrease in monsoon flows and a subsequent significant increase in flows from October to January

BZBJ1058+5628: a new quasi-periodic BL Lac

We present the historic photographic light curves of three little known Blazars (two BL Lacs and one FSRQ), BZB J1058+5628, BZQ J1148+5254 and BZB J1209+4119 spanning a time interval of about 50 years, mostly built using the Asiago plate archive. All objects show evident long-term variability, over which short-term variations are superposed. One source, BZB J1058+5628, showed a marked quasi-periodic variability of 1 mag on time scale of about 6.3 years, making it one of the few BL Lac objects with a quasi-periodic behavior.Comment: Accepted by The Astronomical Journal; 7 figures; 7 table

RX J0911+05: A Massive Cluster Lens at z=0.769

We report the detection of a massive high-redshift cluster of galaxies near the quadruple quasar RX J0911+05, using the LRIS instrument on the Keck-II telescope. The cluster is found to have a mean redshift of =0.7689+/-0.002 and a velocity dispersion of sigma=836{+180-200} km/s, based on redshift measurements for 24 member galaxies. This massive high-redshift cluster is the origin of the unusually large external shear required by lensing models of the quadruple quasar system. We predict the expected time delay depending on the exact contribution of the cluster. A measurement of the time delay and further deep lensing and X-ray observations will unravel useful properties of this serendipitously discovered high-redshift cluster, and may put interesting cosmological constraints on H0.Comment: Submitted to ApJL, 7 pages, 5 figure

The Giant X-Ray Flare of NGC 5905: Tidal Disruption of a Star, a Brown Dwarf, or a Planet?

We model the 1990 giant X-ray flare of the quiescent galaxy NGC 5905 as the tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole. From the observed rapid decline of the luminosity, over a timescale of a few years, we argue that the flare was powered by the fallback of debris rather than subsequent accretion via a thin disk. The fallback model allows constraints to be set on the black hole mass and the mass of debris. The latter must be very much less than a solar mass to explain the very low luminosity of the flare. The observations can be explained either as the partial stripping of the outer layers of a low-mass main sequence star or as the disruption of a brown dwarf or a giant planet. We find that the X-ray emission in the flare must have originated within a small patch rather than over the entire torus of circularized material surrounding the black hole. We suggest that the patch corresponds to the ``bright spot'' where the stream of returning debris impacts the torus. Interestingly, although the peak luminosity of the flare was highly sub-Eddington, the peak flux from the bright spot was close to the Eddington limit. We speculate on the implications of this result for observations of other flare events.Comment: 25 pages, including 5 figure

X-ray Observations of Gravitationally Lensed Quasars; Evidence for a Hidden Quasar Population

The large magnification factors of gravitationally lensed (GL) systems allow us to investigate the properties of quasars with X-ray luminosities that are substantially lower than those of unlensed ones and also provide an independent means of estimating the contribution of faint quasars to the hard X-ray component of the cosmic X-ray background. Our spectral analysis indicate a flattening of the spectral index in the hard band (4-20keV restframe) for 2 radio-loud quasars in the GL quasar sample for which the data have moderate signal-to-noise ratio. We have identified a large fraction of Broad Absorption Line (BAL) quasars amongst the GL quasar population. We find that approximately 35% of radio-quiet GL quasars contain BAL features which is significantly larger than the 10% fraction of BAL quasars presently found in optically selected flux limited quasar samples. We present a simple model that estimates the effects of attenuation and lens magnification on the luminosity function of quasars and that explains the observed fraction of GL BAL quasars. These observations suggest that a large fraction of BAL quasars are missed from flux limited optical surveys. Modeling of several X-ray observations of the GL BAL quasar PG1115+080 suggests that the observed large X-ray variability may be caused in part by a variable intrinsic absorber consistent with previously observed variability of the BAL troughs in the UV band. The observed large X-ray flux variations in PG1115+080 offer the prospect of considerably reducing errors in determining the time delay with future X-ray monitoring of this system and hence constraining the Hubble constant H$_{0}$.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 9 Tables, accepted for publication in Ap