Comparing hard and soft prior bounds in geophysical inverse problems

In linear inversion of a finite-dimensional data vector y to estimate a finite-dimensional prediction vector z, prior information about X sub E is essential if y is to supply useful limits for z. The one exception occurs when all the prediction functionals are linear combinations of the data functionals. Two forms of prior information are compared: a soft bound on X sub E is a probability distribution p sub x on X which describeds the observer's opinion about where X sub E is likely to be in X; a hard bound on X sub E is an inequality Q sub x(X sub E, X sub E) is equal to or less than 1, where Q sub x is a positive definite quadratic form on X. A hard bound Q sub x can be softened to many different probability distributions p sub x, but all these p sub x's carry much new information about X sub E which is absent from Q sub x, and some information which contradicts Q sub x. Both stochastic inversion (SI) and Bayesian inference (BI) estimate z from y and a soft prior bound p sub x. If that probability distribution was obtained by softening a hard prior bound Q sub x, rather than by objective statistical inference independent of y, then p sub x contains so much unsupported new information absent from Q sub x that conclusions about z obtained with SI or BI would seen to be suspect

Contributions from geomagnetic inverse theory to the study of hydromagnetic conditions near the core-mantle boundary

The Final Report on contributions from geomagnetic inverse theory to the study of hydromagnetic conditions near the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is presented. The original proposal was to study five questions concerning what the surface and satellite magnetic data imply about hydromagnetic and electromagnetic conditions near the CMB. The five questions are: (1) what do the surface and satellite data imply about the geomagnetic field B near the surface of the earth; (2) how does one extrapolate B down through the conducting mantle to the CMB; (3) if B on the CMB is visible, how accurately does it satisfy the frozen-flux approximation; (4) if frozen flux is a good approximation on the CMB, what can be inferred about the fluid velocity v in the upper core; and (5) if v at the CMB is visible, does it suggest any dynamical properties of the core, such as vertical advection, Alfven-inertial waves, link instabilities, or mantle effects. A summary of the research is provided

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively

Hydromagnetic conditions near the core-mantle boundary

The main results of the grant were (1) finishing the manuscript of a proof of completeness of the Poincare modes in an incompressible nonviscous fluid corotating with a rigid ellipsoidal boundary, (2) partial completion of a manuscript describing a definition of helicity that resolved questions in the literature about calculating the helicities of vector fields with complicated topologies, and (3) the beginning of a reexamination of the inverse problem of inferring properties of the geomagnetic field B just outside the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from measurements of elements of B at and above the earth's surface. This last work has led to a simple general formalism for linear and nonlinear inverse problems that appears to include all the inversion schemes so far considered for the uniqueness problem in geomagnetic inversion. The technique suggests some new methods for error estimation that form part of this report

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface

Is the Non-Dipole Magnetic Field Random?

Statistical modelling of the Earth's magnetic field B has a long history. In particular, the spherical harmonic coefficients of scalar fields derived from B can be treated as Gaussian random variables. In this paper, we give examples of highly organized fields whose spherical harmonic coefficients pass tests for independent Gaussian random variables. The fact that coefficients at some depth may be usefully summarized as independent samples from a normal distribution need not imply that there really is some physical, random process at that depth. In fact, the field can be extremely structured and still be regarded for some purposes as random. In this paper, we examined the radial magnetic field B(sub r) produced by the core, but the results apply to any scalar field on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) which determines B outside the CMB

The scientific case for magnetic field satellites

To make full use of modern magnetic data and the paleomagnetic record, we must greatly improve our understanding of how the geodynamo system works. It is clearly nonlinear, probably chaotic, and its dimensionless parameters cannot yet be reproduced on a laboratory scale. It is accessible only to theory and to measurements made at and above the earth's surface. These measurements include essentially all geophysical types. Gravity and seismology give evidence for undulations in the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and for temperature variations in the lower mantle which can affect core convection and hence the dynamo. VLBI measurements of the variations in the Chandler wobble and length of day are affected by, among other things, the electromagnetic and mechanical transfer of angular momentum across the CMB. Finally, measurements of the vector magnetic field, its intensity, or its direction, give the most direct access to the core dynamo and the electrical conductivity of the lower mantle. The 120 gauss coefficients of degrees up to 10 probably come from the core, with only modest interference by mantle conductivity and crustal magnetization. By contrast, only three angular accelerations enter the problem of angular momentum transfer across the CMB. Satellite measurements of the vector magnetic field are uniquely able to provide the spatial coverage required for extrapolation to the CMB, and to isolate and measure certain magnetic signals which to the student of the geodynamo represent noise, but which are of great interest elsewhere in geophysics. Here, these claims are justified and the mission parameters likely to be scientifically most useful for observing the geodynamo system are described

Report of the panel on geopotential fields: Magnetic field, section 9

The objective of the NASA Geodynamics program for magnetic field measurements is to study the physical state, processes and evolution of the Earth and its environment via interpretation of measurements of the near Earth magnetic field in conjunction with other geophysical data. The fields measured derive from sources in the core, the lithosphere, the ionosphere, and the magnetosphere. Panel recommendations include initiation of multi-decade long continuous scalar and vector measurements of the Earth's magnetic field by launching a five year satellite mission to measure the field to about 1 nT accuracy, improvement of our resolution of the lithographic component of the field by developing a low altitude satellite mission, and support of theoretical studies and continuing analysis of data to better understand the source physics and improve the modeling capabilities for different source regions

Mortality of fish subjected to explosive shock as applied to oil well severance on Georges Bank

A very extensive bibliography of papers on underwater explosions and their effects on marine life has been collected and summarized. When exposed to blast effects, vertebrates with swim bladders or lungs that contain gas are at least an order of magnitude more sensitive than other life. Regression analysis of several different experiments on explosive damage to fish has been combined with reports of fish concentrations and explosives used in oil well severance in order to estimate the probable extent of damage to fish populations from a limited number of severance explosions. Damage per explosion should not be significant and is probably considerably less than that caused by a one hour tow of a bottom trawl net.Prepared for the Technology Assessment and Research Program of the Minerals Management Service, Department of the Interior, under Contract 14-08-0001-18920