Dutch disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries

We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e. booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial over-optimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena

Inclusão, democracia e novo-desenvolvimentismo : um balanço histórico

Este trabalho analisa o processo do desenvolvimentismo brasileiro compreendido entre a fase clássica dos anos 1950 até a perspectiva atual do novo-desenvolvimentismo, privilegiando o papel e a função desempenhadas pelo tema da democracia e da inclusão distributiva em cada arranjo. Na primeira seção, analisa-se a constelação semântica que envolve os termos progresso e desenvolvimento, procurando separá-los do processo/projeto denominado desenvolvimentismo. Na segunda seção, discutem-se as fases e características centrais do velho e do novo-desenvolvimentismo brasileiro e a perspectiva de sua subdivisão em três ondas históricas, separadas pelo aspecto político democrático e pelo tema da redistribuição. Por último, apresentam-se algumas considerações sobre o novo-desenvolvimentismo em seu arranjo democrático-inclusivo.This paper analyzes the process of the Brazilian developmentalism between the classical phase of the 1950s to the current perspective of new developmentalism, emphasizing the role and function played by the theme of democracy and distributive inclusion in every arrangement. In the first section, it is analyzed the semantic constellation involving the terms progress and development, seeking to separate them from the process / project called developmentalism. In the second section, it is discussed the phases and the central features of the old and the new Brazilian developmentalism and the prospect of their subdivision into three historical waves, separated by the political democratic aspect and by the theme of redistribution. Finally it presents some considerations about the new developmentalism in its democratic-inclusive arrangement