Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase

“Take more laxatives was their answer to everything.”:A qualitative exploration of the patient, carer and healthcare professional experience of constipation in specialist palliative care

Constipation is a major problem for many older adults, more so for those who are receiving specialist palliative care. However, limited research reports the subjective experiences of constipation, despite evidenced differences between the healthcare professional and patient/carer perspective. The main aim of this study is to explore the experience of how constipation is assessed and managed within specialist palliative care from the patient, carer and healthcare professional perspective. Exploratory, qualitative design, utilising focus groups and interviews, and analysed using thematic analysis. Six focus groups with 27 healthcare professionals and semi-structured interviews with 13 patients and 5 family caregivers in specialist palliative care units across three regions of the United Kingdom. Constipation impacted physically, psychologically and socially on patients and families; however, they felt staff relegated it on the list of importance. Lifestyle modifications implemented at home were not incorporated into their specialist palliative care plan within the hospice. Comparatively, healthcare professionals saw constipation solely as a physical symptom. Assessment focused on the physical elements of constipation, and management was pharmacologically driven. Healthcare professionals reported patient embarrassment as a barrier to communicating about bowel care, whereas patients wanted staff to initiate communication and discuss constipation openly. Assessment and management of constipation may not yet reflect the holistic palliative care model. A focus on the pharmacological management may result in lifestyle modifications being underutilised. Healthcare professionals also need to be open to initiate communication on bowel care and consider non-pharmacological approaches. It is important that patients and families are supported in self-care management, alongside standardised guidelines for practice and for healthcare professionals to facilitate this

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. Design: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. Subjects: 19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. Measurements: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Results: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (greater than or equal to30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men greater than or equal to102 cm, women greater than or equal to88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (greater than or equal to1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (greater than or equal to0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38). Conclusions: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences

Impact of FTO genotypes on BMI and weight in polycystic ovary syndrome : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims/hypothesis FTO gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been shown to be associated with obesity-related traits and type 2 diabetes. Several small studies have suggested a greater than expected effect of the FTO rs9939609 SNP on weight in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). We therefore aimed to examine the impact of FTO genotype on BMI and weight in PCOS. Methods A systematic search of medical databases (PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane CENTRAL) was conducted up to the end of April 2011. Seven studies describing eight distinct PCOS cohorts were retrieved; seven were genotyped for SNP rs9939609 and one for SNP rs1421085. The per allele effect on BMI and body weight increase was calculated and subjected to meta-analysis. Results A total of 2,548 women with PCOS were included in the study; 762 were TT homozygotes, 1,253 had an AT/CT genotype, and 533 were AA/CC homozygotes. Each additional copy of the effect allele (A/C) increased the BMI by a mean of 0.19 z score units (95% CI 0.13, 0.24; p = 2.26 × 10−11) and body weight by a mean of 0.20 z score units (95% CI 0.14, 0.26; p = 1.02 × 10−10). This translated into an approximately 3.3 kg/m2 increase in BMI and an approximately 9.6 kg gain in body weight between TT and AA/CC homozygotes. The association between FTO genotypes and BMI was stronger in the cohorts with PCOS than in the general female populations from large genome-wide association studies. Deviation from an additive genetic model was observed in heavier populations. Conclusions/interpretation The effect of FTO SNPs on obesity-related traits in PCOS seems to be more than two times greater than the effect found in large population-based studies. This suggests an interaction between FTO and the metabolic context or polygenic background of PCOS

Bcl-2 protein family: Implications in vascular apoptosis and atherosclerosis

Apoptosis has been recognized as a central component in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, in addition to the other human pathologies such as cancer and diabetes. The pathophysiology of atherosclerosis is complex, involving both apoptosis and proliferation at different phases of its progression. Oxidative modification of lipids and inflammation differentially regulate the apoptotic and proliferative responses of vascular cells during progression of the atherosclerotic lesion. Bcl-2 proteins act as the major regulators of extrinsic and intrinsic apoptosis signalling pathways and more recently it has become evident that they mediate the apoptotic response of vascular cells in response to oxidation and inflammation either in a provocative or an inhibitory mode of action. Here we address Bcl-2 proteins as major therapeutic targets for the treatment of atherosclerosis and underscore the need for the novel preventive and therapeutic interventions against atherosclerosis, which should be designed in the light of molecular mechanisms regulating apoptosis of vascular cells in atherosclerotic lesions

Genetic determinants of co-accessible chromatin regions in activated T cells across humans.

Over 90% of genetic variants associated with complex human traits map to non-coding regions, but little is understood about how they modulate gene regulation in health and disease. One possible mechanism is that genetic variants affect the activity of one or more cis-regulatory elements leading to gene expression variation in specific cell types. To identify such cases, we analyzed ATAC-seq and RNA-seq profiles from stimulated primary CD4+ T cells in up to 105 healthy donors. We found that regions of accessible chromatin (ATAC-peaks) are co-accessible at kilobase and megabase resolution, consistent with the three-dimensional chromatin organization measured by in situ Hi-C in T cells. Fifteen percent of genetic variants located within ATAC-peaks affected the accessibility of the corresponding peak (local-ATAC-QTLs). Local-ATAC-QTLs have the largest effects on co-accessible peaks, are associated with gene expression and are enriched for autoimmune disease variants. Our results provide insights into how natural genetic variants modulate cis-regulatory elements, in isolation or in concert, to influence gene expression