Confession Session: Learning from Others Mistakes

Accepted versio

Cemented total hip replacement in patients under 55 years:Good results in 104 hips followed up for ≥22 years

Background and purpose — About 86,000 total hip replacements (THR) have been registered in patients under 55 years in the National Joint Registry of England and Wales (NJR). The use of uncemented implants has increased, despite their outcomes not having been proven to be significantly better than cemented implants in this registry. We determined the implant survivorship and functional outcomes of cemented THR in patients under 55 years at a minimum follow-up of 22 years. Patients and methods — 104 hips in 100 patients were included in this prospective study. Functional outcome was assessed using the Harris Hip Score and radiographs were assessed for implant failure and “at risk” of failure. Kaplan–Meier survivorship analysis was performed. Results — 89% of hips showed good to excellent results at final follow-up with a mean Harris Hip Score of 88 at a mean follow-up of 25 years. Revision was performed in 3/104 hips. 14 acetabular components and 4 femoral components were “at risk” of failure. The survivorship at minimum 22 years with revision for any reason as the end-point was 97% (95% CI 95–98). Interpretation — Cemented hip replacements perform well in young patients with good long-term functional and radiographic outcomes

Enhancement of alkaline protease production by Bacillus clausii using Taguchi experimental design

The effect of culture conditions on protease production and bacterial growth of Bacillus clausii was investigated using Taguchi design of experiment. Five factors viz., carbon source, organic andinorganic nitrogen sources, agitation and metal ion, each at four levels were selected and an orthogonal array layout of L16 (45) were performed. The proposed medium for alkaline protease productionconsisted of (g/l): sucrose, 10; yeast extract, 10; KNO3, 5; trace element without Mn2+. Under these optimal conditions, 4 fold enhancement in protease production (from 250 to 1000 U/ml) was obtained. At the optimum culture for bacterial growth, which contained (g/l): starch, 10; yeast extract, 10; ammonium ions, 5; trace element without Zn2+, 1.88 fold increase in growth production (from OD600 nm of about 8.5 in basal medium to OD600 nm of 16 in optimized medium) were observed. The inorganic nitrogen source was the most significant factor on protease production with 57.75% contribution. The organic nitrogen and carbon sources by 35.28 and 34.93% contributions were prominent factors in bacterial growth

Play dough as an educational tool for visualization of complicated cerebral aneurysm anatomy

BACKGROUND: Imagination of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of cerebral vascular lesions using two-dimensional (2D) angiograms is one of the skills that neurosurgical residents should achieve during their training. Although ongoing progress in computer software and digital imaging systems has facilitated viewing and interpretation of cerebral angiograms enormously, these facilities are not always available. METHODS: We have presented the use of play dough as an adjunct to the teaching armamentarium for training in visualization of cerebral aneurysms in some cases. RESULTS: The advantages of play dough are low cost, availability and simplicity of use, being more efficient and realistic in training the less experienced resident in comparison with the simple drawings and even angiographic views from different angles without the need for computers and similar equipment. The disadvantages include the psychological resistance of residents to the use of something in surgical training that usually is considered to be a toy, and not being as clean as drawings or computerized images. CONCLUSION: Although technology and computerized software using the patients' own imaging data seems likely to become more advanced in the future, use of play dough in some complicated cerebral aneurysm cases may be helpful in 3D reconstruction of the real situation

Prophylactic antibiotic for prevention of posttraumatic meningitis after traumatic pneumocephalus: design and rationale of a placebo-controlled randomized multicenter trial [ISRCTN71132784]

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to compare the efficacy of prophylactic antibiotic for prevention of meningitis in acute traumatic pneumocephalus patients. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized controlled clinical trial, 200 selected head injury patients with traumatic pneumocephalus are randomly assigned to receive intravenous antibiotics (2 grams Ceftriaxone twice a day), oral antibiotics (Azithromycin) or placebo for at least 7 days after trauma. The patients will be followed for one month posttrauma. CONCLUSION: The authors hope that this study helps clarifying the effectiveness and indications of antibiotics in prevention of meningitis in traumatic pneumocephalus after head injury and in specific subgroup of these patients

Comparison of artificial neural network and logistic regression models for prediction of mortality in head trauma based on initial clinical data

BACKGROUND: In recent years, outcome prediction models using artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression analysis have been developed in many areas of health care research. Both these methods have advantages and disadvantages. In this study we have compared the performance of artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression models, in prediction of outcomes in head trauma and studied the reproducibility of the findings. METHODS: 1000 Logistic regression and ANN models based on initial clinical data related to the GCS, tracheal intubation status, age, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, pulse rate, injury severity score and the outcome of 1271 mainly head injured patients were compared in this study. For each of one thousand pairs of ANN and logistic models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. RESULTS: ANN significantly outperformed logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but under performed in accuracy. In 77.8% of cases the area under the ROC curves and in 56.4% of cases the HL statistics for the neural network model were superior to that for the logistic model. In 68% of cases the accuracy of the logistic model was superior to the neural network model. CONCLUSIONS: ANN significantly outperformed the logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but lagged behind in accuracy. This study clearly showed that any single comparison between these two models might not reliably represent the true end results. External validation of the designed models, using larger databases with different rates of outcomes is necessary to get an accurate measure of performance outside the development population

Predicting ICU survival: A meta-level approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The performance of separate Intensive Care Unit (ICU) status scoring systems vis-à-vis prediction of outcome is not satisfactory. Computer-based predictive modeling techniques may yield good results but their performance has seldom been extensively compared to that of other mature or emerging predictive models. The objective of the present study was twofold: to propose a prototype meta-level predicting approach concerning Intensive Care Unit (ICU) survival and to evaluate the effectiveness of typical mining models in this context.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on 158 men and 46 women, were used retrospectively (75% of the patients survived). We used Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Injury Severity Score (ISS) values to structure a decision tree (DTM), a neural network (NNM) and a logistic regression (LRM) model and we evaluated the assessment indicators implementing Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) plot analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our findings indicate that regarding the assessment of indicators' capacity there are specific discrete limits that should be taken into account. The Az score ± SE was 0.8773± 0.0376 for the DTM, 0.8061± 0.0427 for the NNM and 0.8204± 0.0376 for the LRM, suggesting that the proposed DTM achieved a near optimal Az score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The predicting processes of ICU survival may go "one step forward", by using classic composite assessment indicators as variables.</p