Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon. Characterization of its orbit, spin state, and thermophysical parameters

The near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon is an intriguing object: its perihelion is at only 0.14 au and is associated with the Geminid meteor stream. We aim to use all available disk-integrated optical data to derive a reliable convex shape model of Phaethon. By interpreting the available space- and ground-based thermal infrared data and Spitzer spectra using a thermophysical model, we also aim to further constrain its size, thermal inertia, and visible geometric albedo. We applied the convex inversion method to the new optical data obtained by six instruments and to previous observations. The convex shape model was then used as input for the thermophysical modeling. We also studied the long-term stability of Phaethon's orbit and spin axis with a numerical orbital and rotation-state integrator. We present a new convex shape model and rotational state of Phaethon: a sidereal rotation period of 3.603958(2) h and ecliptic coordinates of the preferred pole orientation of (319$^{\circ}$, $-$39$^{\circ}$) with a 5$^{\circ}$ uncertainty. Moreover, we derive its size ($D$=5.1$\pm$0.2 km), thermal inertia ($\Gamma$=600$\pm$200 J m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1/2}$ K$^{-1}$), geometric visible albedo ($p_{\mathrm{V}}$=0.122$\pm$0.008), and estimate the macroscopic surface roughness. We also find that the Sun illumination at the perihelion passage during the past several thousand years is not connected to a specific area on the surface, which implies non-preferential heating.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics. In pres

`Oumuamua as a messenger from the Local Association

7 pages, one table, two figures, accepted for publication by ApJL. © 2018. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.With a hyperbolic trajectory around the Sun, 'Oumuamua is the first confirmed interstellar object. However, its origin is poorly known. By simulating the orbits of 0.23 million local stars, we find 109 encounters with periastron less than 5 pc. 'Oumuamua's low peculiar velocity is suggestive of its origin from a young stellar association with similar velocity. In particular, we find that 'Oumuamua would have had slow encounters with at least five young stars belonging to the Local Association, thus suggesting these as plausible sites for formation and ejection. In addition to an extremely elongated shape, the available observational data for 'Oumuamua indicates a red color, suggestive of a potentially organic-rich and activity-free surface. These characteristics seem consistent with formation through energetic collisions between planets and debris objects in the middle part of a young stellar system. We estimate an abundance of at least 6.0 × 10 -3 au -3 for such interstellar objects with mean diameter larger than 100 m and find that it is likely that most of them will be ejected into the Galactic halo. Our Bayesian analysis of the available light curves indicates a rotation period of 6.96 +1.45 -0.39, which is consistent with the estimation by Meech et al. and shorter than those in other literature. The codes and results are available on GitHub (https://github.com/phillippro/Oumuamua).Peer reviewe

Spin states of asteroids in the Eos collisional family

Eos family was created during a catastrophic impact about 1.3 Gyr ago. Rotation states of individual family members contain information about the history of the whole population. We aim to increase the number of asteroid shape models and rotation states within the Eos collision family, as well as to revise previously published shape models from the literature. Such results can be used to constrain theoretical collisional and evolution models of the family, or to estimate other physical parameters by a thermophysical modeling of the thermal infrared data. We use all available disk-integrated optical data (i.e., classical dense-in-time photometry obtained from public databases and through a large collaboration network as well as sparse-in-time individual measurements from a few sky surveys) as input for the convex inversion method, and derive 3D shape models of asteroids together with their rotation periods and orientations of rotation axes. We present updated shape models for 15 asteroids and new shape model determinations for 16 asteroids. Together with the already published models from the publicly available DAMIT database, we compiled a sample of 56 Eos family members with known shape models that we used in our analysis of physical properties within the family. Rotation states of asteroids smaller than ~20 km are heavily influenced by the YORP effect, whilst the large objects more or less retained their rotation state properties since the family creation. Moreover, we also present a shape model and bulk density of asteroid (423) Diotima, an interloper in the Eos family, based on the disk-resolved data obtained by the Near InfraRed Camera (Nirc2) mounted on the W.M. Keck II telescope.Comment: Accepted for publication in ICARUS Special Issue - Asteroids: Origin, Evolution & Characterizatio

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Temporal light field reconstruction for rendering distribution effects

Traditionally, effects that require evaluating multidimensional integrals for each pixel, such as motion blur, depth of field, and soft shadows, suffer from noise due to the variance of the high-dimensional integrand. In this paper, we describe a general reconstruction technique that exploits the anisotropy in the temporal light field and permits efficient reuse of samples between pixels, multiplying the effective sampling rate by a large factor. We show that our technique can be applied in situations that are challenging or impossible for previous anisotropic reconstruction methods, and that it can yield good results with very sparse inputs. We demonstrate our method for simultaneous motion blur, depth of field, and soft shadows

Environmental impact of wind energy:Synthesis and Review

One purpose of wind turbines is to provide pollution-free electric power at a reasonable price in an environmentally sound way. In this focus issue the latest research on the environmental impact of wind farms is presented. Offshore wind farms affect the marine fauna in both positive and negative ways. For example, some farms are safe havens for porpoises while other farms show fewer harbor porpoises even after ten years. Atmospheric computer experiments are carried out to investigate the possible impact and resource of future massive installations of wind turbines. The following questions are treated. What is the global capacity for energy production by the wind? Will the added turbulence and reduced wind speeds generated by massive wind farms cool or heat the surface? Can wind farms affect precipitation? It is also shown through life-cycle analysis how wind energy can reduce the atmospheric emission of eight air pollutants. Finally, noise generation and its impact on humans are studied

Gaussian Whittle-Mat\'ern fields on metric graphs

We define a new class of Gaussian processes on compact metric graphs such as street or river networks. The proposed models, the Whittle--Mat\'ern fields, are defined via a fractional stochastic differential equation on the compact metric graph and are a natural extension of Gaussian fields with Mat\'ern covariance functions on Euclidean domains to the non-Euclidean metric graph setting. Existence of the processes, as well as some of their main properties, such as sample path regularity are derived. The model class in particular contains differentiable processes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first construction of a differentiable Gaussian process on general compact metric graphs. Further, we prove an intrinsic property of these processes: that they do not change upon addition or removal of vertices with degree two. Finally, we obtain Karhunen--Lo\`eve expansions of the processes, provide numerical experiments, and compare them to Gaussian processes with isotropic covariance functions.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figure

Wasserstein complexity penalization priors: a new class of penalizing complexity priors

Penalizing complexity (PC) priors is a principled framework for designing priors that reduce model complexity. PC priors penalize the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between the distributions induced by a ``simple'' model and that of a more complex model. However, in many common cases, it is impossible to construct a prior in this way because the KLD is infinite. Various approximations are used to mitigate this problem, but the resulting priors then fail to follow the designed principles. We propose a new class of priors, the Wasserstein complexity penalization (WCP) priors, by replacing KLD with the Wasserstein distance in the PC prior framework. These priors avoid the infinite model distance issues and can be derived by following the principles exactly, making them more interpretable. Furthermore, principles and recipes to construct joint WCP priors for multiple parameters analytically and numerically are proposed and we show that they can be easily obtained, either numerically or analytically, for a general class of models. The methods are illustrated through several examples for which PC priors have previously been applied