CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M>6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept', being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all>400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate', ‘strong' or ‘very strong' shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5-7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong' to ‘severe' shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30

FinDer v.2: Improved real-time ground-motion predictions for M2–M9 with seismic finite-source characterization

Recent studies suggest that small and large earthquakes nucleate similarly, and that they often have indistinguishable seismic waveform onsets. The characterization of earthquakes in real time, such as for earthquake early warning, therefore requires a flexible modeling approach that allows a small earthquake to become large as fault rupture evolves over time. Here, we present a modeling approach that generates a set of output parameters and uncertainty estimates that are consistent with both small/moderate (≤M6.5) and large earthquakes (>M6.5) as is required for a robust parameter interpretation and shaking forecast. Our approach treats earthquakes over the entire range of magnitudes (>M2) as finite line-source ruptures, with the dimensions of small earthquakes being very small (<100 m) and those of large earthquakes exceeding several tens to hundreds of kilometres in length. The extent of the assumed line source is estimated from the level and distribution of high-frequency peak acceleration amplitudes observed in a local seismic network. High-frequency motions are well suited for this approach, because they are mainly controlled by the distance to the rupturing fault. Observed ground-motion patterns are compared with theoretical templates modeled from empirical ground-motion prediction equations to determine the best line source and uncertainties. Our algorithm extends earlier work by Böse et al. for large finite-fault ruptures. This paper gives a detailed summary of the new algorithm and its offline performance for the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan and 2014 M6.0 South Napa, California earthquakes, as well as its performance for about 100 real-time detected local earthquakes (2.2 ≤ M ≤ 5.1) in California. For most events, both the rupture length and the strike are well constrained within a few seconds (<10 s) of the event origin. In large earthquakes, this could allow for providing warnings of up to several tens of seconds. The algorithm could also be useful for resolving fault plane ambiguities of focal mechanisms and identification of rupturing faults for earthquakes as small as M2.5

Analysis of Jmjd6 Cellular Localization and Testing for Its Involvement in Histone Demethylation

BACKGROUND: Methylation of residues in histone tails is part of a network that regulates gene expression. JmjC domain containing proteins catalyze the oxidative removal of methyl groups on histone lysine residues. Here, we report studies to test the involvement of Jumonji domain-containing protein 6 (Jmjd6) in histone lysine demethylation. Jmjd6 has recently been shown to hydroxylate RNA splicing factors and is known to be essential for the differentiation of multiple tissues and cells during embryogenesis. However, there have been conflicting reports as to whether Jmjd6 is a histone-modifying enzyme. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Immunolocalization studies reveal that Jmjd6 is distributed throughout the nucleoplasm outside of regions containing heterochromatic DNA, with occasional localization in nucleoli. During mitosis, Jmjd6 is excluded from the nucleus and reappears in the telophase of the cell cycle. Western blot analyses confirmed that Jmjd6 forms homo-multimers of different molecular weights in the nucleus and cytoplasm. A comparison of mono-, di-, and tri-methylation states of H3K4, H3K9, H3K27, H3K36, and H4K20 histone residues in wildtype and Jmjd6-knockout cells indicate that Jmjd6 is not involved in the demethylation of these histone lysine residues. This is further supported by overexpression of enzymatically active and inactive forms of Jmjd6 and subsequent analysis of histone methylation patterns by immunocytochemistry and western blot analysis. Finally, treatment of cells with RNase A and DNase I indicate that Jmjd6 may preferentially associate with RNA/RNA complexes and less likely with chromatin. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together, our results provide further evidence that Jmjd6 is unlikely to be involved in histone lysine demethylation. We confirmed that Jmjd6 forms multimers and showed that nuclear localization of the protein involves association with a nucleic acid matrix

Changes in wave climate over the northwest European shelf seas during the last 12,000 years

Because of the depth attenuation of wave orbital velocity, wave-induced bed shear stress is much more sensitive to changes in total water depth than tidal-induced bed shear stress. The ratio between wave- and tidal-induced bed shear stress in many shelf sea regions has varied considerably over the recent geological past because of combined eustatic changes in sea level and isostatic adjustment. In order to capture the high-frequency nature of wind events, a two-dimensional spectral wave model is here applied at high temporal resolution to time slices from 12 ka BP to present using paleobathymetries of the NW European shelf seas. By contrasting paleowave climates and bed shear stress distributions with present-day conditions, the model results demonstrate that, in regions of the shelf seas that remained wet continuously over the last 12,000 years, annual root-mean-square (rms) and peak wave heights increased from 12 ka BP to present. This increase in wave height was accompanied by a large reduction in the annual rms wave- induced bed shear stress, primarily caused by a reduction in the magnitude of wave orbital velocity penetrating to the bed for increasing relative sea level. In regions of the shelf seas which remained wet over the last 12,000 years, the annual mean ratio of wave- to (M-2) tidal-induced bed shear stress decreased from 1 (at 12 ka BP) to its present-day value of 0.5. Therefore compared to present- day conditions, waves had a more important contribution to large-scale sediment transport processes in the Celtic Sea and the northwestern North Sea at 12 ka BP

FinDer v.2: Improved real-time ground-motion predictions for M2–M9 with seismic finite-source characterization

Recent studies suggest that small and large earthquakes nucleate similarly, and that they often have indistinguishable seismic waveform onsets. The characterization of earthquakes in real time, such as for earthquake early warning, therefore requires a flexible modeling approach that allows a small earthquake to become large as fault rupture evolves over time. Here, we present a modeling approach that generates a set of output parameters and uncertainty estimates that are consistent with both small/moderate (≤M6.5) and large earthquakes (>M6.5) as is required for a robust parameter interpretation and shaking forecast. Our approach treats earthquakes over the entire range of magnitudes (>M2) as finite line-source ruptures, with the dimensions of small earthquakes being very small (<100 m) and those of large earthquakes exceeding several tens to hundreds of kilometres in length. The extent of the assumed line source is estimated from the level and distribution of high-frequency peak acceleration amplitudes observed in a local seismic network. High-frequency motions are well suited for this approach, because they are mainly controlled by the distance to the rupturing fault. Observed ground-motion patterns are compared with theoretical templates modeled from empirical ground-motion prediction equations to determine the best line source and uncertainties. Our algorithm extends earlier work by Böse et al. for large finite-fault ruptures. This paper gives a detailed summary of the new algorithm and its offline performance for the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan and 2014 M6.0 South Napa, California earthquakes, as well as its performance for about 100 real-time detected local earthquakes (2.2 ≤ M ≤ 5.1) in California. For most events, both the rupture length and the strike are well constrained within a few seconds (<10 s) of the event origin. In large earthquakes, this could allow for providing warnings of up to several tens of seconds. The algorithm could also be useful for resolving fault plane ambiguities of focal mechanisms and identification of rupturing faults for earthquakes as small as M2.5

The {\eta}'-carbon potential at low meson momenta

The production of $\eta^\prime$ mesons in coincidence with forward-going protons has been studied in photon-induced reactions on $^{12}$C and on a liquid hydrogen (LH$_2$) target for incoming photon energies of 1.3-2.6 GeV at the electron accelerator ELSA. The $\eta^\prime$ mesons have been identified via the $\eta^\prime\rightarrow \pi^0 \pi^0\eta \rightarrow 6 \gamma$ decay registered with the CBELSA/TAPS detector system. Coincident protons have been identified in the MiniTAPS BaF$_2$ array at polar angles of $2^{\circ} \le \theta _{p} \le 11^{\circ}$. Under these kinematic constraints the $\eta^\prime$ mesons are produced with relatively low kinetic energy ($\approx$ 150 MeV) since the coincident protons take over most of the momentum of the incident-photon beam. For the C-target this allows the determination of the real part of the $\eta^\prime$-carbon potential at low meson momenta by comparing with collision model calculations of the $\eta^\prime$ kinetic energy distribution and excitation function. Fitting the latter data for $\eta^\prime$ mesons going backwards in the center-of-mass system yields a potential depth of V = $-$(44 $\pm$ 16(stat)$\pm$15(syst)) MeV, consistent with earlier determinations of the potential depth in inclusive measurements for average $\eta^\prime$ momenta of $\approx$ 1.1 GeV/$c$. Within the experimental uncertainties, there is no indication of a momentum dependence of the $\eta^\prime$-carbon potential. The LH$_2$ data, taken as a reference to check the data analysis and the model calculations, provide differential and integral cross sections in good agreement with previous results for $\eta^\prime$ photoproduction off the free proton.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1608.0607

Experimental constraints on the ω\omega-nucleus real potential

In a search for $\omega$ mesic states, the production of $\omega$-mesons in coincidence with forward going protons has been studied in photon induced reactions on $^{12}$C for incident photon energies of 1250 - 3100 MeV. The $\pi^0 \gamma$ pairs from decays of bound or quasi-free $\omega$-mesons have been measured with the CBELSA/TAPS detector system in coincidence with protons registered in the MiniTAPS forward array. Structures in the total energy distribution of the $\pi^0 \gamma$ pairs, which would indicate the population and decay of bound $\omega~^{11}$B states, are not observed. The $\pi^0 \gamma$ cross section of 0.3 nb/MeV/sr observed in the bound state energy regime between -100 and 0 MeV may be accounted for by yield leaking into the bound state regime because of the large in-medium width of the $\omega$-meson. A comparison of the measured total energy distribution with calculations suggests the real part $V_0$ of the $\omega~^{11}$B potential to be small and only weakly attractive with $V_0(\rho=\rho_0) = -15\pm$ 35(stat) $\pm$20(syst) MeV in contrast to some theoretical predictions of attractive potentials with a depth of 100 - 150 MeV.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

Photoproduction of eta mesons from the neutron: cross sections and double polarization observable E

Photoproduction of $\eta$ mesons from neutrons} \abstract{Results from measurements of the photoproduction of $\eta$ mesons from quasifree protons and neutrons are summarized. The experiments were performed with the CBELSA/TAPS detector at the electron accelerator ELSA in Bonn using the $\eta\to3\pi^{0}\to6\gamma$ decay. A liquid deuterium target was used for the measurement of total cross sections and angular distributions. The results confirm earlier measurements from Bonn and the MAMI facility in Mainz about the existence of a narrow structure in the excitation function of $\gamma n\rightarrow n\eta$. The current angular distributions show a forward-backward asymmetry, which was previously not seen, but was predicted by model calculations including an additional narrow $P_{11}$ state. Furthermore, data obtained with a longitudinally polarized, deuterated butanol target and a circularly polarized photon beam were analyzed to determine the double polarization observable $E$. Both data sets together were also used to extract the helicity dependent cross sections $\sigma_{1/2}$ and $\sigma_{3/2}$. The narrow structure in the excitation function of $\gamma n\rightarrow n\eta$ appears associated with the helicity-1/2 component of the reaction

The polarization observables T, P, and H and their impact on γp→pπ0\gamma p \to p\pi^0 multipoles

Data on the polarization observables T, P, and H for the reaction $\gamma p\to p\pi^0$ are reported. Compared to earlier data from other experiments, our data are more precise and extend the covered range in energy and angle substantially. The results were extracted from azimuthal asymmetries measured using a transversely polarized target and linearly polarized photons. The data were taken at the Bonn electron stretcher accelerator ELSA with the CBELSA/TAPS detector. Within the Bonn-Gatchina partial wave analysis, the new polarization data lead to a significant narrowing of the error band for the multipoles for neutral-pion photoproduction