Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions

We compared Turkish and English students’ soccer forecasting for English soccer matches. Although the Turkish students knew very little about English soccer, they selected teams on the basis of familiarity with the team (or its identified city); their prediction success was surprisingly similar to knowledgeable English students—consistent with Goldstein and Gigerenzer’s (1999; 2002) characterization of the recognition heuristic. The Turkish students made forecasts for some of the matches with additional information—the half-time scores. In this and a further study, where British students predicting matches for foreign teams could choose whether or not to use half-time information, we found that predictions that could be made by recognition alone were influenced by the half-time information. We consider the implications of these findings in the context of Goldstein and Gigerenzer’s (2002, p. 82) suggestion that “. . . no other information can reverse the choice determined by recognition” and a recent more qualified statement (Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 2011

Memory strategies mediate the relationships between memory and judgment

In the literature, the nature of the relationships between memory processes and summary evaluations is still a debate. According to some theoretical approaches (e.g., “two-memory hypothesis”; Anderson, 1989) retrospective evaluations are based on the impression formed while attending to the to-be assessed stimuli (on-line judgment) – no functional dependence between information retrieval and judgment is implied. Conversely, several theories entail that judgment must depend, at least in part, on memory processes (e.g., Dougherty, Gettys, & Ogden, 1999; Schwarz, 1998; Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). The present study contributes to this debate by addressing two important issues. First, it shows how more comprehensive memory measures than those used previously (e.g., Hastie & Park, 1986) are necessary in order to detect a relationship between memory and retrospective evaluations. Secondly, it demonstrates how memory strategies influence the relationship between memory and judgment. Participants recalled lists of words, after having assessed each of them for their pleasantness. Results showed a clear association between memory and judgment, which was mediated by the individual strategies participants used to recall the items

Boundary Dissipation in a Driven Hard Disk System

A simulation is performed aiming at checking the existence of a well defined stationary state for a two dimensional system of driven hard disks when energy dissipation takes place at the system boundaries and no bulk impurities are presentComment: 5 pages, 7 figure

Now I like it, now I don’t

The present paper tests the widely accepted hypothesis that on-line judgment implies functional independence between memory for, and judgment of, verbal stimuli (e.g., Anderson,1989; Hastie & Park, 1986). In the present study, participants recalled lists of words, after having assessed each for its pleasantness. Presentation position of a negative item within the lists was manipulated. Also, items memorability was manipulated after their presentation – by inserting a filled delay between presentation and the judgment task; in this way, on-line judgment formation was spared. The memory manipulation reduced recall rates for negative items presented in the last position – and their negative influence on pleasantness ratings accordingly. These results contradict the predictions of pure on-line approaches to judgment formation(e.g., Betsch, Plessner, Schwieren, & Gütig, 2001) and suggest that even in on-line judgment tasks, memory plays a role

Configurational Temperature, Verification of Monte Carlo Simulations

[Unable to convert symbols, please look at PDF version for symbols] A new diagnostic that is useful for checking the algorithmic correctness of Monte Carlo computer programs is presented. The check is made by comparing the Boltzmann temperature, which is input to the program and used to accept or reject moves, with a configurational temperature k T B config [unable to convert symbol, please see PDF]. Here, F is the potential energy of the system and [symbal]represents the dimensionless gradient operator with respect to the particle positions [symbol]. We show, using a simulation of Lennard-Jones particles, that the configurational temperature rapidly and accurately tracks changes made to the input temperature even when the system is not in global thermodynamic equilibrium. Coding and/or algorithmic errors can be detected by checking that the input temperature and Tconfig agree. The effects of system size and continuity of F and its first derivative on Tconfig are also discussed

Microscopic expressions for the thermodynamic temperature

We show that arbitrary phase space vector fields can be used to generate phase functions whose ensemble averages give the thermodynamic temperature. We describe conditions for the validity of these functions in periodic boundary systems and the Molecular Dynamics (MD) ensemble, and test them with a short-ranged potential MD simulation.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, Revtex. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Measuring Nonequilibrium Temperature of Forced Oscillators

The meaning of temperature in nonequilibrium thermodynamics is considered by using a forced harmonic oscillator in a heat bath, where we have two effective temperatures for the position and the momentum, respectively. We invent a concrete model of a thermometer to testify the validity of these different temperatures from the operational point of view. It is found that the measured temperature depends on a specific form of interaction between the system and a thermometer, which means the zeroth law of thermodynamics cannot be immediately extended to nonequilibrium cases.Comment: 8 page

Intraocular solitary extramedullary plasmacytoma presenting as unilateral anterior and intermediate uveitis preceded by refractory glaucoma

Background: Solitary extramedullary plasmacytoma (SEP) is a localised proliferation of monoclonal plasma cells involving soft tissue with no or minimal bone marrow involvement and no other systemic evidence of multiple myeloma. Intraocular involvement is exceedingly rare. Case presentation: We report a 78-year-old man who was referred with glaucoma in the right eye. He subsequently developed anterior chamber (AC) inflammation and refractory glaucoma then dense vitritis. A vitrectomy was performed with the biopsy revealing numerous plasma cells with atypical findings. In conjunction with the flow cytometry results, and a systemic work up excluding multiple myeloma, a diagnosis of SEP was made. The patient was treated with ocular external beam radiotherapy with resolution of the intraocular inflammation and control of the intraocular pressure. He remains well with no local recurrence and no development of multiple myeloma over a follow up period of 2.5 years. Conclusions: This is the first case report of SEP presenting as intraocular inflammation without a uveal tract mass

RESPOND – A patient-centred programme to prevent secondary falls in older people presenting to the emergency department with a fall: Protocol for a mixed methods programme evaluation.

Background Programme evaluations conducted alongside randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have potential to enhance understanding of trial outcomes. This paper describes a multi-level programme evaluation to be conducted alongside an RCT of a falls prevention programme (RESPOND). Objectives 1) To conduct a process evaluation in order to identify the degree of implementation fidelity and associated barriers and facilitators. 2) To evaluate the primary intended impact of the programme: participation in fall prevention strategies, and the factors influencing participation. 3) To identify the factors influencing RESPOND RCT outcomes: falls, fall injuries and ED re-presentations. Methods/ Design Five hundred and twenty eight community-dwelling adults aged 60–90 years presenting to two EDs with a fall will be recruited and randomly assigned to the intervention or standard care group. All RESPOND participants and RESPOND clinicians will be included in the evaluation. A mixed methods design will be used and a programme logic model will frame the evaluation. Data will be sourced from interviews, focus groups, questionnaires, clinician case notes, recruitment records, participant-completed calendars, hospital administrative datasets, and audio-recordings of intervention contacts. Quantitative data will be analysed via descriptive and inferential statistics and qualitative data will be interpreted using thematic analysis. Discussion The RESPOND programme evaluation will provide information about contextual and influencing factors related to the RCT outcomes. The results will assist researchers, clinicians, and policy makers to make decisions about future falls prevention interventions. Insights gained are likely to be transferable to preventive health programmes for a range of chronic conditions

Stationary and Transient Work-Fluctuation Theorems for a Dragged Brownian Particle

Recently Wang et al. carried out a laboratory experiment, where a Brownian particle was dragged through a fluid by a harmonic force with constant velocity of its center. This experiment confirmed a theoretically predicted work related integrated (I) Transient Fluctuation Theorem (ITFT), which gives an expression for the ratio for the probability to find positive or negative values for the fluctuations of the total work done on the system in a given time in a transient state. The corresponding integrated stationary state fluctuation theorem (ISSFT) was not observed. Using an overdamped Langevin equation and an arbitrary motion for the center of the harmonic force, all quantities of interest for these theorems and the corresponding non-integrated ones (TFT and SSFT, resp.) are theoretically explicitly obtained in this paper. While the (I)TFT is satisfied for all times, the (I)SSFT only holds asymptotically in time. Suggestions for further experiments with arbitrary velocity of the harmonic force and in which also the ISSFT could be observed, are given. In addition, a non-trivial long-time relation between the ITFT and the ISSFT was discovered, which could be observed experimentally, especially in the case of a resonant circular motion of the center of the harmonic force.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figure