Laws of rare events for deterministic and random dynamical systems

The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general theory of Extreme Value Laws for randomly perturbed dynamical systems. We also address, in both situations, the convergence of Rare Events Point Processes. Decay of correlations against $L^1$ observables will play a central role in our investigations

Determinants of Formal Giving in Turkey

This article shares the results of a recent study on individual giving to civil society organizations in Turkey. Using interview data collected from a random sample of 2,495 Turkish citizens in 2015, we estimate that about 12% to 13% of the Turkish population engage in giving, a relatively low figure compared to international giving. We find that being male, being educated, being satisfied with one’s income, being satisfied with one’s economic circumstances, being a rural resident, as well as one’s level of religiosity, civic activism, and institutional trust are all positively associated with giving in Turkey. Our findings provide a foundation for understanding philanthropic giving in Turkey and contribute to ongoing research about determinants of individual giving across countries

A Thick Industrial Design Studio Curriculum

This presentation was part of the session : Pedagogy: Procedures, Scaffolds, Strategies, Tactics24th National Conference on the Beginning Design StudentThis paper describes an industrial design studio course based in a private university in Izmir, Turkey where second year industrial design students, for the first time, engage in a studio project. The design studio course emphasises three distinct areas of competence in designing that are the focus of the curriculum. They are; design process: the intellectual act of solving a design problem; design concept: the imagination and sensibility to conceive of appropriate design ideas; and presentation: the ability to clearly and evocatively communicate design concepts. The studio is 'thick' with materials, tasks and activities that are intentionally sequenced to optimise learning in a process that is known as educational 'scaffolding.' The idea of a process--a patient journey toward it's destination, is implicit in the studio that is full of opportunities for reflection-in-action. A significant feature is the importance placed on drawing and model making. An exemplary design process should show evidence of 'breadth'--meaning a wide search for solutions where a range of alternatives explored throughout; followed by an incremental refinement of the chosen solution where elements of the final design concept are developed thoroughly and in detail--called 'depth.' Learning to design is predicated on an engagement in and manipulation of the elements of the design problem. Evidence of that learning will be found by examining the physical materials and results of the design process. The assessment criteria are published with the brief at the outset of design project and outcomes are spelt out at the end. Students are remind throughout project of the criteria, which is to say they are reminded of pedagogical aims of the studio. Assessment criteria are detailed and the advantages of summative assessment are described

Halide Edib Adıvar ve kabak çekirdekçi

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 41-Halide Edip-A. Adnan Adıva

Benim Adım Kırmızı

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 12-Orhan Pamu

Group-In: Group Inference from Wireless Traces of Mobile Devices

This paper proposes Group-In, a wireless scanning system to detect static or mobile people groups in indoor or outdoor environments. Group-In collects only wireless traces from the Bluetooth-enabled mobile devices for group inference. The key problem addressed in this work is to detect not only static groups but also moving groups with a multi-phased approach based only noisy wireless Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSIs) observed by multiple wireless scanners without localization support. We propose new centralized and decentralized schemes to process the sparse and noisy wireless data, and leverage graph-based clustering techniques for group detection from short-term and long-term aspects. Group-In provides two outcomes: 1) group detection in short time intervals such as two minutes and 2) long-term linkages such as a month. To verify the performance, we conduct two experimental studies. One consists of 27 controlled scenarios in the lab environments. The other is a real-world scenario where we place Bluetooth scanners in an office environment, and employees carry beacons for more than one month. Both the controlled and real-world experiments result in high accuracy group detection in short time intervals and sampling liberties in terms of the Jaccard index and pairwise similarity coefficient.Comment: This work has been funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme under Grant Agreements No. 731993 AUTOPILOT and No.871249 LOCUS projects. The content of this paper does not reflect the official opinion of the EU. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the authors. Proc. of ACM/IEEE IPSN'20, 202

Reşat Nuri Güntekin ve mektuplar

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 95-Reşat Nuri Günteki

Analyzing the forecast performance of S&P 500 Index Options implied volatility

Ankara : The Department of Management, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2012.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2012.Includes bibliographical references.This study examines the comparative performance of the call and put implied volatility (IV) of at-the-money European-style SPX Index Options on the S&P 500 Price Index as a precursor to the ex-post realized volatility. The results confirm that implied volatility contains valuable information regarding the ex-post realized volatility during the last decade for the S&P 500 market. The empirical findings also indicate that the put implied volatility has a higher forecast performance. Furthermore, from the wavelet estimations it has been concluded that the long-run variation of the implied volatility is consistent and unbiased in explaining the long-run variations of the ex-post realized volatility. Wavelet estimations further reveal that in the long-run put and call implied volatility contain comparable information regarding the realized volatility of the market. However, in the short-run put implied volatility dynamics have better predictive ability.Erdemir, AytaçM.S