Multidimensional Household Food Security Measurement in Rural Zambia

Food security is recognised as a multifaceted condition of complex causality, and given its broad definition, it is no surprise that food security eludes precise measurement. This study considers there to be three components of household food security (quantity, quality and stability), and attempts to address the “concept-to-measurement” gap in food security by building an index that spans these three dimensions. A panel data set from rural Zambia is used for descriptive analysis of food security indicators in 2001, 2004 and 2008. A multidimensional index of food security for rural Zambia is then developed using principal component analysis. We use this index to explore the spatial patterns of food security over time and to assess correlates of food security and impacts of climate shocks. Results indicate that both rainfall and temperature have a significant impact on a household’s food security score, though not for each individual component of the index. The paper concludes with a discussion of the merits and shortcomings of developing a composite food security index

Multidimensional Household Food Security Measurement in Rural Zambia

Food security is recognized as a multifaceted condition of complex causality that is related to, yet distinct from, poverty and hunger. Given its broad definition, it is no surprise that food security eludes precise measurement. This study considers there to be three components of household food security (quantity, quality, and stability), and attempts to address the "concept-to-measurement" gap in food security by building an index that spans these three dimensions. A panel data set is used for descriptive analysis of food security indicators in rural Zambia in 2000/01, 2003/04, and 2007/08 for different types of households, including female-headed households. A multidimensional index of food security for rural Zambia is then developed using principal component analysis. This composite index is used to explore the spatial patterns of food security in Zambia over time, to assess correlates of food insecurity, and to measure the impacts of climate shocks on food security. Results indicate that both seasonal rainfall and temperature have a significant impact on a household's food security score, although not for all individual components of the food security index. The paper concludes with a consideration of the merits and shortcomings of developing a composite food security index

WOMEN′S WELFARE AND LIVELIHOODS OUTSIDE OF MARRIAGE: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL TANZANIA

This paper explores the welfare and livelihood strategies of women in rural Tanzania after they exit marriage. We draw from a three-wave individual-level longitudinal survey, using a correlated random effects approach within regression analysis to control for time-invariant individual effects. Attention is given to whether women exit marriage through widowhood or divorce, and whether they subsequently become household heads or join another household. Nearly 40% of widowed or divorced women are not the heads of their households, but instead reside with relatives. We find that women, and particularly widows, are more likely to be poor after marriage exit. Upon widowhood or divorce, women also work longer hours in off-farm employment, and those who become household heads are especially likely to experience a reduction in land access and a heightened reliance on non-farm income, including the receipt of transfers. This underscores the importance of both the non-farm economy and family networks for women′s livelihoods after marriage. Results illustrate that women′s experiences outside of marriage are diverse and cannot be broadly proxied with a household status of being female-headed

FACTOR MARKET ACTIVITY AND THE INVERSE FARM SIZEPRODUCTIVITY RELATIONSHIP IN TANZANIA

Although the inverse farm size-productivity relationship (IR) is sometimes used to motivate arguments in favor of smallholder-led agricultural development, it remains unclear what drives this relationship. It may be attributed to market imperfections that compel small farms to use land more intensively than large farms. Using a three-wave longitudinal household survey from Tanzania, we examine whether the intensity of the IR is related to local factor market activity for land, labor, credit, and animal and machine traction. The IR is evident in Tanzania, although it disappears when family labor is valued at the prevailing local agricultural wage rate. This suggests that labor market imperfections (possibly linked to other market failures) drive the IR. Furthermore, the IR is significantly weakened in the presence of relatively active markets for most factors of production. This suggests that the IR is at least partly driven by imperfections in rural factor markets, underscoring the importance of strategies to improve the functioning of these markets

Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

In Zambia like in many other developing countries, the agricultural sector is highly dependent on rain-fed production and therefore vulnerable to weather shocks. Maize is the primary staple crop in Zambia, and is widely grown by smallholder farmers throughout the country, with a dual cassava-maize regime found only in the northern region. Among the smallholder farmers almost all production is rain-fed with very few farmers using mechanized irrigation. Climate change therefore has the potential to significantly reduce agricultural production and exacerbate poverty and food insecurity

INTRA-RURAL MIGRATION AND PATHWAYS TO GREATER WELL-BEING: EVIDENCE FROM TANZANIA

Migration between rural locations is prevalent in developing countries and has been found to improve economic well-being in Sub-Saharan Africa. This article explores the pathways through which intra-rural migration affects well-being in rural Tanzania. Specifically, we investigate whether such migration enables migrants to access more land, higher quality land, or greater off-farm income generating opportunities that may, in turn, translate into improved well-being. Drawing on a longitudinal data set that tracks migrants to their destinations, we employ a difference-in-differences approach, validated with a multinomial treatment effects model, and find that migration confers a benefit in consumption to migrants. Results do not indicate that this advantage is derived from larger farms or, generally, from more productive farmland. However, across all destinations, migrants are more likely to draw from off-farm or nonfarm income sources, suggesting that even intra-rural migration represents a shift away from a reliance on farm production, and this is likely the dominant channel through which migrants benefit. We conclude that intra-rural migration merits greater attention in the discourse on rural development and structural transformation

Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

Despite some overlap between farmers’ observations and climate patterns found in the meteorological records, the meteorological data do not support the perception that is an increase in intra-season variability in rainfall. Therefore, a complete picture of climate change requires contributions from multiple knowledge systems

Intra-Rural Migration in Tanzania and Pathways of Welfare Change

Migration between rural locations is prevalent in many developing countries and has been found to improve economic well-being in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper explores the pathways through which intra-rural migration affects welfare in rural Tanzania. Specifically, we investigate whether such migration enables migrants to access more land, higher quality land, or greater off-farm income generating opportunities that may, in turn, translate into improved welfare. Drawing on a longitudinal data set that tracks migrants to their destinations, we employ a difference-in-differences approach, validated with a multinomial treatment effects model, and find that migration confers a benefit in consumption to migrants. Results do not indicate that this advantage is derived from larger farms, though intra-rural migrants to more densely populated areas do seem to achieve more productive farmland at their destinations. Across all destinations, migrants are more likely to draw from off-farm and non-farm income sources, suggesting that even intra-rural migration represents a shift away from agriculture, and this is likely the dominant channel through which migrants benefit. We conclude that intra-rural migration merits greater attention in the discourse on rural development and structural transformation

Climate Change and Crop Choice in Zambia: A Mathematical Programming Approach

While climate change is widely regarded as a threat to food security in southern Africa, few studies attempt to link the science of climate change impacts on agriculture with the specificities of smallholder livelihoods. In this paper, we build a series of linear programming (LP) farm-household models in Zambia in order to assess the impact of climate change on rural households and likely changes in land use and crop management. The LP models represent three household types (smallholders, emergent farmers, and female-headed households) in three agro-ecological zones with divergent cropping patterns and climate trends. Model parameters are drawn from several nationally representative rural household surveys, local meteorological records, and downscaled climate predictions of the Hadley (HadCM3) and CCSM models for the year 2050. The calorie-maximizing LP models are calibrated to best reflect baseline crop distributions at each site. Statistical analyses of crop yields over nine years reveal that crops in Zambia exhibit varying levels of sensitivity to climate shocks, and under climate change scenarios, the LP models indicate that farmers will shift their choices of technologies and crops. Among smallholder farms, calorie production from field crops changes by -13.56 to +5.13% under the Hadley predictions and -10.61 to +9.79% under the CCSM predictions. Although farm-households are expected to meet their consumption requirements even under climate change scenarios, the probability of falling below a minimum threshold of calorie production increases in two of our three study sites, and this is particularly true for smallholder farmers who face binding land constraints. Given the current choice set, autonomous on-farm adaptation generally will not be enough to offset the negative yield effects of climate change. Zambia therefore needs larger-scale institutional developments and agricultural research to provide farmers with additional adaptation options

Land Markets and Equity of Land Distribution in Northwestern Tanzania

Land markets can have potentially divergent effects on the distribution of land. While they may lead to a concentration of land in the hands of a wealthy minority, they can also enhance equity by serving as an alternative avenue of land access for those with a limited inheritance. This paper explores the equity implications of land sales and rental markets in northwestern Tanzania. Using household-level data collected in 2014 and a control function approach to address potential endogeneity, we find that the land market enables households to adjust their farm size to compensate for a small inheritance. The rental market is particularly used by those with no inheritance to secure a landholding, while households with a larger initial endowment are more likely to dispose of land. Our results indicate that the local land market, characterized by widespread participation, ultimately increases the equity of land distribution