Exoplanetary atmosphere target selection in the era of comparative planetology

The large number of new planets expected from wide-area transit surveys means that follow-up transmission spectroscopy studies of their atmospheres will be limited by the availability of telescope assets. We argue that telescopes covering a broad range of apertures will be required, with even 1m-class instruments providing a potentially important contribution. Survey strategies that employ automated target selection will enable robust population studies. As part of such a strategy, we propose a decision metric to pair the best target to the most suitable telescope, and demonstrate its effectiveness even when only primary transit observables are available. Transmission spectroscopy target selection need not therefore be impeded by the bottle-neck of requiring prior follow-up observations to determine the planet mass. The decision metric can be easily deployed within a distributed heterogeneous network of telescopes equipped to undertake either broadband photometry or spectroscopy. We show how the metric can be used either to optimise the observing strategy for a given telescope (e.g. choice of filter) or to enable the selection of the best telescope to optimise the overall sample size. Our decision metric can also provide the basis for a selection function to help evaluate the statistical completeness of follow-up transmission spectroscopy datasets. Finally, we validate our metric by comparing its ranked set of targets against lists of planets that have had their atmospheres successfully probed, and against some existing prioritised exoplanet lists.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables. Revision 3, accepted by MNRAS. Improvements include always using planetary masses where available and reliable, treatment for sky backgrounds and out-of-transit noise and a use case for defocused photometr

Optimizing exoplanet atmosphere retrieval using unsupervised machine-learning classification

One of the principal bottlenecks to atmosphere characterisation in the era of all-sky surveys is the availability of fast, autonomous and robust atmospheric retrieval methods. We present a new approach using unsupervised machine learning to generate informed priors for retrieval of exoplanetary atmosphere parameters from transmission spectra. We use principal component analysis (PCA) to efficiently compress the information content of a library of transmission spectra forward models generated using the PLATON package. We then apply a $k$-means clustering algorithm in PCA space to segregate the library into discrete classes. We show that our classifier is almost always able to instantaneously place a previously unseen spectrum into the correct class, for low-to-moderate spectral resolutions, $R$, in the range $R~=~30-300$ and noise levels up to $10$~per~cent of the peak-to-trough spectrum amplitude. The distribution of physical parameters for all members of the class therefore provides an informed prior for standard retrieval methods such as nested sampling. We benchmark our informed-prior approach against a standard uniform-prior nested sampler, finding that our approach is up to a factor two faster, with negligible reduction in accuracy. We demonstrate the application of this method to existing and near-future observatories, and show that it is suitable for real-world application. Our general approach is not specific to transmission spectroscopy and should be more widely applicable to cases that involve repetitive fitting of trusted high-dimensional models to large data catalogues, including beyond exoplanetary science.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Transit timing variation and transmission spectroscopy analyses of the hot Neptune GJ3470b

GJ3470b is a hot Neptune exoplanet orbiting an M dwarf and the first sub-Jovian planet to exhibit Rayleigh scattering. We present transit timing variation (TTV) and transmission spectroscopy analyses of multiwavelength optical photometry from 2.4-m and 0.5-m telescopes at the Thai National Observatory, and the 0.6-m PROMPT-8 telescope in Chile. Our TTV analysis allows us to place an upper mass limit for a second planet in the system. The presence of a hot Jupiter with a period of less than 10 d or a planet with an orbital period between 2.5 and 4.0 d are excluded. Combined optical and near-infrared transmission spectroscopy favour an H/He-dominated haze (mean molecular weight 1.08 ± 0.20) with high particle abundance at high altitude. We also argue that previous near-infrared data favour the presence of methane in the atmosphere of GJ3470b

Circumbinary planet study around NSVS 14256825

The period variability of (O-C) diagram of an eclipsing binary, NSVS 14256825, which is composed of a hot subdwarf type OB star (sdOB) and a main-sequence low-mass type M star (dM) in close orbit with period P=0.110374 days, previously showed sinusoidal signal cause by the light travel time effects. This signal can be caused by the presence of third bodies. We re-examined (O-C) diagram of the system. We combined eclipse timings from published data and the data taken from ULTRASPEC at 2.4 m at Thai National Telescope on November 2018. From the fitting model, the parameters of the third body in NSVS 14256825 system are obtained

TransitFit: an exoplanet transit fitting package for multi-telescope datasets and its application to WASP-127~b, WASP-91~b, and WASP-126~b

We present TransitFit, an open-source Python~3 package designed to fit exoplanetary transit light-curves for transmission spectroscopy studies (Available at https://github.com/joshjchayes/TransitFit and https://github.com/spearnet/TransitFit, with documentation at https://transitfit.readthedocs.io/). TransitFit employs nested sampling to offer efficient and robust multi-epoch, multi-wavelength fitting of transit data obtained from one or more telescopes. TransitFit allows per-telescope detrending to be performed simultaneously with parameter fitting, including the use of user-supplied detrending alogorithms. Host limb darkening can be fitted either independently ("uncoupled") for each filter or combined ("coupled") using prior conditioning from the PHOENIX stellar atmosphere models. For this TransitFit uses the Limb Darkening Toolkit (LDTk) together with filter profiles, including user-supplied filter profiles. We demonstrate the application of TransitFit in three different contexts. First, we model SPEARNET broadband optical data of the low-density hot-Neptune WASP-127~b. The data were obtained from a globally-distributed network of 0.5m--2.4m telescopes. We find clear improvement in our broadband results using the coupled mode over uncoupled mode, when compared against the higher spectral resolution GTC/OSIRIS transmission spectrum obtained by Chen et al. (2018). Using TransitFit, we fit 26 transit observations by TESS to recover improved ephemerides of the hot-Jupiter WASP-91~b and a transit depth determined to a precision of 170~ppm. Finally, we use TransitFit to conduct an investigation into the contested presence of TTV signatures in WASP-126~b using 126 transits observed by TESS, concluding that there is no statistically significant evidence for such signatures from observations spanning 31 TESS sectors.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables, submitted to MNRAS. Temporary data address at https://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/ftp/vizier.submit/wasp-127b/ (Final address to be included in accepted paper

Revisiting the Transit Timing and Atmosphere Characterization of the Neptune-mass Planet HAT-P-26 b

We present the transit timing variation (TTV) and planetary atmosphere analysis of the Neptune-mass planet HAT-P-26~b. We present a new set of 13 transit light curves from optical ground-based observations and combine them with light curves from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and previously published ground-based data. We refine the planetary parameters of HAT-P-26 b and undertake a TTV analysis using 33 transits obtained over seven years. The TTV analysis shows an amplitude signal of 1.98 $\pm$ 0.05 minutes, which could result from the presence of an additional $0.02 M_{Jup}$ planet at the 1:2 mean-motion resonance orbit. Using a combination of transit depths spanning optical to near-infrared wavelengths, we find that the atmosphere of HAT-P-26 b contains $2.4^{+2.9}_{-1.6}$% of H$_2$O with a derived temperature of $590^{+60}_{-50}$ K.Comment: 34 pages, accepted by A

Full orbital solution for the binary system in the northern Galactic disc microlensing event Gaia16aye

Gaia16aye was a binary microlensing event discovered in the direction towards the northern Galactic disc and was one of the first microlensing events detected and alerted to by the Gaia space mission. Its light curve exhibited five distinct brightening episodes, reaching up to I? =? 12 mag, and it was covered in great detail with almost 25 000 data points gathered by a network of telescopes. We present the photometric and spectroscopic follow-up covering 500 days of the event evolution. We employed a full Keplerian binary orbit microlensing model combined with the motion of Earth and Gaia around the Sun to reproduce the complex light curve. The photometric data allowed us to solve the microlensing event entirely and to derive the complete and unique set of orbital parameters of the binary lensing system. We also report on the detection of the first-ever microlensing space-parallax between the Earth and Gaia located at L2. The properties of the binary system were derived from microlensing parameters, and we found that the system is composed of two main-sequence stars with masses 0.57 ± 0.05 M? and 0.36 ± 0.03 M? at 780 pc, with an orbital period of 2.88 years and an eccentricity of 0.30. We also predict the astrometric microlensing signal for this binary lens as it will be seen by Gaia as well as the radial velocity curve for the binary system. Events such as Gaia16aye indicate the potential for the microlensing method of probing the mass function of dark objects, including black holes, in directions other than that of the Galactic bulge. This case also emphasises the importance of long-term time-domain coordinated observations that can be made with a network of heterogeneous telescopes