Strategies to achieve adequate vitamin A intake for young children: options for Cameroon.

Meeting children's vitamin A (VA) needs remains a policy priority. Doing so efficiently is a fiscal imperative and protecting at-risk children during policy transitions is a moral imperative. Using the Micronutrient Intervention Modeling tool and data for Cameroon, we predict the impacts and costs of alternative VA intervention programs, identify the least-cost strategy for meeting targets nationally, and compare it to a business-as-usual (BAU) strategy over 10 years. BAU programs effectively cover ∼12.8 million (m) child-years (CY) and cost ∼$30.1 m; ∼US$2.34 per CY effectively covered. Improving the VA-fortified oil program, implementing a VA-fortified bouillon cube program, and periodic VA supplements (VAS) in the North macroregion for 3 years effectively cover ∼13.1 m CY at a cost of ∼US$9.5 m, or ∼US$0.71 per CY effectively covered. The tool then identifies a sequence of subnational policy choices leading from the BAU toward the more efficient strategy, while addressing VA-attributable mortality concerns. By year 4, fortification programs are predicted to eliminate inadequate VA intake in the South and Cities macroregions, but not the North, where VAS should continue until additional delivery platforms are implemented. This modeling approach offers a concrete example of the strategic use of data to follow the Global Alliance for VA framework and do so efficiently

Comparing estimated cost‐effectiveness of micronutrient intervention programs using primary and secondary data: evidence from Cameroon

Designing a cost-effective portfolio of micronutrient intervention programs is complex and generally undertaken with limited data. We developed the MINIMOD-Secondary Data (MINIMOD-SD) tool, which uses household consumption and expenditure survey data and other secondary data to estimate apparent nutrient intakes and model the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of micronutrient intervention programs. We present the SD tool methodology and results in the context of Cameroon, with a particular focus on vitamin A (VA) for children and folate for women of reproductive age (WRA). We compared the MINIMOD-SD tool estimates with those of the full MINIMOD tool, which uses 24-h dietary recall data. The SD tool consistently underestimated folate intake among women (median (IQR): 230 (143,352) versus 303 (244,367) μg dietary folate equivalents (DFEs)/day) and especially VA among children (141 (64,279) versus 227 (102,369)). Qualitatively, however, the two tools were generally consistent in predicted subnational patterns of micronutrient adequacy and identification of effective and cost-effective (cost per child/WRA moving from inadequate to adequate intake) interventions. Secondary data and the MINIMOD-SD tool can provide policymakers with information to qualitatively assess deficiency risks and identify cost-effective interventions. However, accurately quantifying individual-level deficiency or dietary inadequacy and intervention effectiveness and cost-effectiveness will likely require individual-level dietary data and biomarker measurements

Strategies to achieve adequate vitamin A intake for young children: options for Cameroon.

Meeting children's vitamin A (VA) needs remains a policy priority. Doing so efficiently is a fiscal imperative and protecting at-risk children during policy transitions is a moral imperative. Using the Micronutrient Intervention Modeling tool and data for Cameroon, we predict the impacts and costs of alternative VA intervention programs, identify the least-cost strategy for meeting targets nationally, and compare it to a business-as-usual (BAU) strategy over 10 years. BAU programs effectively cover ∼12.8 million (m) child-years (CY) and cost ∼$30.1 m; ∼US$2.34 per CY effectively covered. Improving the VA-fortified oil program, implementing a VA-fortified bouillon cube program, and periodic VA supplements (VAS) in the North macroregion for 3 years effectively cover ∼13.1 m CY at a cost of ∼US$9.5 m, or ∼US$0.71 per CY effectively covered. The tool then identifies a sequence of subnational policy choices leading from the BAU toward the more efficient strategy, while addressing VA-attributable mortality concerns. By year 4, fortification programs are predicted to eliminate inadequate VA intake in the South and Cities macroregions, but not the North, where VAS should continue until additional delivery platforms are implemented. This modeling approach offers a concrete example of the strategic use of data to follow the Global Alliance for VA framework and do so efficiently

Review of Existing Models to Predict Reductions in Neural Tube Defects Due to Folic Acid Fortification and Model Results Using Data from Cameroon

Several models have been developed to predict the effects of folic acid fortification programs on prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs), but each relies on different assumptions and data inputs. We identified and reviewed 7 models that predict the effects of folic acid intake or status on NTD risk. We applied 4 of these models [the original and a modified version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and models developed by Arth et al. and Wald et al.] to predict the effect of folic acid fortification of wheat flour on reduction of NTDs using national survey data from Cameroon. The estimated percentage of NTDs averted due to fortified wheat flour (5.0 μg folic acid/g flour) varied by predictive model, with a 21-31% reduction in LiST to 83% in Arth's model, and 15% in Wald's model. As the simulated fortification level was increased from 1.0 to 7.0 μg folic acid/g flour, the pattern of change in estimated numbers of NTDs averted differed due to different model assumptions: the number of NTDs averted increased and then reached a plateau in the modified LiST model (as would be expected in real-world conditions), increased sharply in Arth's model, and increased continuously in Wald's model. This wide variation in predicted effects, and implausible results in some cases, undermines the models' utility for users of model outputs. Concurrent collection of dietary and biomarker data, including plasma and RBC folate concentrations, and NTD outcomes, is necessary to validate these models and monitor change in folic acid intake, folate-related biomarkers, and reduced NTD risk due to fortification. In the meantime, models based on erythrocyte folate concentration are recommended, based on biological plausibility and consistency with empirical evidence. Where erythrocyte folate data are unavailable, sensitivity analyses (using several models) could be conducted to examine the range of possible outcomes

Applying Zinc Nutrient Reference Values as Proposed by Different Authorities Results in Large Differences in the Estimated Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake by Young Children and Women and in Cameroon

Nutrient reference values (NRVs) for zinc set by several expert groups differ widely and may affect the predicted prevalence of inadequate zinc intake. We examined this possibility using NRVs published by four different authorities and nationally representative dietary intake data collected among children aged 12-59 months and women in Cameroon. Usual zinc intake was estimated from 24 h recall data using the National Cancer Institute method. Prevalences of total zinc intake below the dietary requirement and of "absorbable zinc intake" below the physiological requirement were estimated using NRVs published by the World Health Organization (WHO), US Institute of Medicine (IOM), International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group (IZiNCG), and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake ranged from 10% (IZiNCG-physiological requirement, 95% CI 7-13%) to 81% (EFSA-physiological requirement, 95% CI 78-84%) among children and 9% (WHO-physiological requirement, 95% CI 8-11.0%) to 94% (IOM-physiological requirement, 95% CI 92-95%) among women These differences in the prevalence of inadequate intake translated into sizeable differences in the predicted benefit and cost-effectiveness of zinc fortification programs. Depending on the NRVs applied, assessments differ regarding the need for and design of zinc fortification programs. Efforts are needed to harmonize NRVs for zinc