Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the “Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study”

Background: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the “Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study” (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. Methods: Young adults (25–45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. Results: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. Conclusions: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time

Potential Deaths Averted and Serious Adverse Events Incurred From Adoption of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Intensive Blood Pressure Regimen in the United States: Projections From NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey)

BACKGROUND: SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) demonstrated a 27% reduction in all-cause mortality with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) goal ofmellitus, stroke, or heart failure. To quantify the potential benefits and risks of SPRINT intensive goal implementation, we estimated the deaths prevented and excess serious adverse events incurred if the SPRINT intensive SBP treatment goal were implemented in all eligible US adults. METHODS: SPRINT eligibility criteria were applied to the 1999 to 2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and linked with the National Death Index through December 2011. SPRINT eligibility included age ≥50 years, SBP of 130 to 180 mm Hg (depending on the number of antihypertensive medications being taken), and high cardiovascular disease risk. Exclusion criteria were diabetes mellitus, history of stroke, \u3e1 g proteinuria, heart failure, estimated glomerular filtration ratemL·min RESULTS: The mean age was 68.6 years, and 83.2% and 7.4% were non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black, respectively. The annual mortality rate was 2.20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.48), and intensive SBP treatment was projected to prevent ≈107 500 deaths per year (95% CI, 93 300-121 200) and give rise to 56 100 (95% CI, 50 800-61 400) episodes of hypotension, 34 400 (95% CI, 31 200-37 600) episodes of syncope, 43 400 (95% CI, 39 400-47 500) serious electrolyte disorders, and 88 700 (95% CI, 80 400-97 000) cases of acute kidney injury per year. The analysis-of-extremes approach indicated that the range of estimated lower- and upper-bound number of deaths prevented per year with intensive SBP control was 34 600 to 179 600. Intensive SBP control was projected to prevent 46 100 (95% CI, 41 800-50 400) cases of heart failure annually. CONCLUSIONS: If fully implemented in eligible US adults, intensive SBP treatment could prevent ≈107 500 deaths per year. A consequence of this treatment strategy, however, could be an increase in serious adverse events

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS/DESIGN: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-hour recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Examining the BMI-mortality relationship using fractional polynomials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many previous studies estimating the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality impose assumptions regarding the functional form for BMI and result in conflicting findings. This study investigated a flexible data driven modelling approach to determine the nonlinear and asymmetric functional form for BMI used to examine the relationship between mortality and obesity. This approach was then compared against other commonly used regression models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study used data from the National Health Interview Survey, between 1997 and 2000. Respondents were linked to the National Death Index with mortality follow-up through 2005. We estimated 5-year all-cause mortality for adults over age 18 using the logistic regression model adjusting for BMI, age and smoking status. All analyses were stratified by sex. The multivariable fractional polynomials (MFP) procedure was employed to determine the best fitting functional form for BMI and evaluated against the model that includes linear and quadratic terms for BMI and the model that groups BMI into standard weight status categories using a deviance difference test. Estimated BMI-mortality curves across models were then compared graphically.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best fitting adjustment model contained the powers -1 and -2 for BMI. The relationship between 5-year mortality and BMI when estimated using the MFP approach exhibited a J-shaped pattern for women and a U-shaped pattern for men. A deviance difference test showed a statistically significant improvement in model fit compared to other BMI functions. We found important differences between the MFP model and other commonly used models with regard to the shape and nadir of the BMI-mortality curve and mortality estimates.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The MFP approach provides a robust alternative to categorization or conventional linear-quadratic models for BMI, which limit the number of curve shapes. The approach is potentially useful in estimating the relationship between the full spectrum of BMI values and other health outcomes, or costs.</p

Analytical and biological variability in biomarker measurement in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Biomarker variability, which includes within-individual variability (CVI), between-individual variability (CVG) and methodological variability (CVP+A) is an important determinant of our ability to detect biomarker-disease associations. Estimates of CVI and CVG may be population specific and little data exists on biomarker variability in diverse Hispanic populations. Hence, we evaluated all 3 components of biomarker variability in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) using repeat blood collections (n=58) and duplicate blood measurements (n = 761 – 929 depending on the biomarker)

Lower levels of Th1 and Th2 cytokines in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) at the time of initial CSF shunt placement in children are associated with subsequent shunt revision surgeries

OBJECTIVE: We compare cytokine profiles at the time of initial CSF shunt placement between children who required no subsequent shunt revision surgeries and children requiring repeated CSF shunt revision surgeries for CSF shunt failure. We also describe the cytokine profiles across surgical episodes for children who undergo multiple subsequent revision surgeries. METHODS: This pilot study was nested within an ongoing prospective multicenter study collecting CSF samples and clinical data at the time of CSF shunt surgeries since August 2014. We selected cases where CSF was available for children who underwent an initial CSF shunt placement and had no subsequent shunt revision surgeries during \u3e=24 months of follow-up (n = 7); as well as children who underwent an initial CSF shunt placement and then required repeated CSF shunt revision surgeries (n = 3). Levels of 92 human cytokines were measured using the Olink immunoassay and 41 human cytokines were measured using Luminex based bead array on CSF obtained at the time of each child\u27s initial CSF shunt placement and were displayed in heat maps. RESULTS: Qualitatively similar profiles for the majority of cytokines were observed among the patients in each group in both Olink and Luminex assays. Lower levels of MCP-3, CASP-8, CD5, CXCL9, CXCL11, eotaxin, IFN-γ, IL-13, IP-10, and OSM at the time of initial surgery were noted in the children who went on to require multiple surgeries. Pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were selected a priori and shown across subsequent revision surgeries for the 3 patients. Cytokine patterns differed between patients, but within a given patient pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines acted in a parallel fashion, with the exception of IL-4. CONCLUSIONS: Heat maps of cytokine levels at the time of initial CSF shunt placement for each child undergoing only a single initial CSF shunt placement and for each child undergoing repeat CSF shunt revision surgeries demonstrated qualitatively similar profiles for the majority of cytokines. Lower levels of MCP-3, CASP-8, CD5, CXCL9, CXCL11, eotaxin, IFN-γ, IL-13, IP-10, and OSM at the time of initial surgery were noted in the children who went on to require multiple surgeries. Better stratification by patient age, etiology, and mechanism of failure is needed to develop a deeper understanding of the mechanism of inflammation in the development of hydrocephalus and response to shunting in children

Contribution of body mass index to postoperative outcome in minority patients

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association of body mass index (BMI) category with short‐term outcomes in minority surgical patients—a relationship that previously has not been well characterized. METHODS: Data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were used to calculate the BMI of minority patients undergoing surgery from 2005 to 2008. Patients were stratified into 5 BMI classes. Stepwise logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for mortality after controlling for known clinically relevant covariates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Morbidity and mortality at 30 days, across all 5 BMI classes. RESULTS: Among 119,619 minority patients studied, 50% were African American, 36% Hispanic, 10% Asian and Pacific Islanders, and 4% American Indian and Alaskan natives. Seventy percent were overweight or obese. Women were more likely to be obese or severely obese. The overall mortality rate was 1.5%, and this varied significantly by BMI class. Distribution of 30‐day mortality demonstrated a progressive decrease, with the highest risk of death in the underweight class, and the lowest risk of death in the severely obese class. This relationship was maintained, even in patients with at least 1 major postoperative complication. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of being overweight or obese was high in this nationally representative cohort of minority surgical patients. Although BMI class is a significant predictor of 30‐day mortality, the effect appeared paradoxical. The poorest outcomes were in the underweight and normal BMI patients. Severely obese patients had the lowest risk of mortality, even after experiencing a major postoperative complication. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2012; © 2011 Society of Hospital Medicine.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90173/1/958_ftp.pd

A comparison of indices of glucose metabolism in five black populations: data from modeling the epidemiologic transition study (METS)

Background: Globally, Africans and African Americans experience a disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes, compared to other race and ethnic groups. The aim of the study was to examine the association of plasma glucose with indices of glucose metabolism in young adults of African origin from 5 different countries. Methods: We identified participants from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, an international study of weight change and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in five populations of African origin: USA (US), Jamaica, Ghana, South Africa, and Seychelles. For the current study, we included 667 participants (34.8 ± 6.3 years), with measures of plasma glucose, insulin, leptin, and adiponectin, as well as moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA, minutes/day [min/day]), daily sedentary time (min/day), anthropometrics, and body composition. Results: Among the 282 men, body mass index (BMI) ranged from 22.1 to 29.6 kg/m2 in men and from 25.8 to 34.8 kg/m2 in 385 women. MVPA ranged from 26.2 to 47.1 min/day in men, and from 14.3 to 27.3 min/day in women and correlated with adiposity (BMI, waist size, and % body fat) only among US males after controlling for age. Plasma glucose ranged from 4.6 ± 0.8 mmol/L in the South African men to 5.8 mmol/L US men, while the overall prevalence for diabetes was very low, except in the US men and women (6.7 and 12 %, respectively). Using multivariate linear regression, glucose was associated with BMI, age, sex, smoking hypertension, daily sedentary time but not daily MVPA. Conclusion: Obesity, metabolic risk, and other potential determinants vary significantly between populations at differing stages of the epidemiologic transition, requiring tailored public health policies to address local population characteristics