Cambio climatico y plagas forestales: el caso de la procesionaria del pino en el noreste de Portugal

The pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep., Thaumetopoeidae) is known as the most defoliating insect in Pinus and Cedrus in many countries. In the last three decades, climate change has led to a substantial expansion of its range and high attack rates in previously unaffected areas were observed. A 3-year analysis of the effect of several climatic elements on the T. pityocampa adult emergence was made and one climatic change scenario was tested in order to predict the insect’s behaviour in the future. Results showed that mean air temperature was the climatic element with the best single regression fit to adult emergence, whereas minimum air temperature and relative humidity provided the best multiple regression fits. Results also demonstrated that higher emergence of adults is often related to a maximum temperature above 30°C, a mean temperature above 23°C, a minimum temperature above 17°C, relative humidity lower than 60% and precipitation values lower than 10 mm. Using the same thresholds for future climatic conditions simulated by the COSMO-CLM model, the period for pine processionary moth emergence will be expanded, starting much sooner. Contrasting with the actual emergence period, the insect is projected to have favorable climatic conditions to start emerging in May. This might have serious implications in forest ecosystems, concerning not only ecological issues, but also forest management.La procesionaria del pino, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep., Thaumetopoeidae), es conocido en muchos países como el insecto más defoliador de Pinus y Cedrus. En las últimas tres décadas el cambio climático ha originado una considerable expansión de su rango de distribución y aumentado la proporción de ataques en áreas previamente no atacadas. Durante tres años fue realizada una monitorización de los efectos de diversos elementos climáticos sobre la emergencia de los adultos de T. pityocampa y un escenario de cambio climático fue testado con el fin de predecir el comportamiento de los insectos en el futuro. Los resultados revelan que la temperatura media del aire es el elemento climático que más contribuye en la regresión simple para explicar la emergencia de adultos, seguidos de la temperatura mínima del aire y la humedad relativa. Nuestros resultados también demostraron que el aumento de emergencia de adultos estaba a menudo relacionado con temperaturas máximas superiores a 30°C, temperatura media por encima de los 23°C, temperatura mínima por encima de 17°C, humedad relativa inferior al 60% y valores de precipitación inferiores a los 10 mm. Atendiendo a los resultados para eses umbrales climáticos y el modelo de CLM, el periodo de emergencia de la procesionaria de pino se extenderá, comenzando mucho antes. En contraste con el actual periodo de emergencia, el insecto tendrá condiciones climáticas favorables para comenzar a emerger en Mayo. Esto tendrá consecuencias graves para los ecosistemas forestales no sólo al nivel de las cuestiones ecológicas, sino también para la gestión forestal

The biology of an isolated population of the American Flamingo Phoenicopterus ruber in the Galapagos Islands

A genetically and morphologically divergent population of c. 500 American Flamingos, isolated from the parental Caribbean stock of Phoenicopterus ruber, occurs in the Galapagos archipelago. Based primarily on data from a 3-year study, we provide the first description of the feeding and breeding biology of this population. Galapagos provides a suitable habitat comprising lagoons on a number of islands, among which the flamingos travel in response to food and nest site availability. We identify putative food items. The occurrence and quantity of some food species was associated with the chlorosity of lagoon water, as was the distribution of flamingos. The flamingos bred opportunistically at five lagoons on four islands, sometimes simultaneously on more than one island. Group display usually involved = 20 birds, and colonies contained as few as three nests. Laying occurred during nine months of the year, mainly August–January, coinciding with the coastal drier season and low lagoon water levels. On average c.30% of all adults incubated clutches each year, producing 0.37 fledglings per clutch. Recruitment is probably sufficient to sustain the population, which has been stable over at least c. 45 years, and is probably limited by suitable habitat. Moult to flightlessness was recorded among adults. We review potential dangers to this unique population and suggest conservation measures

Candidemia Surveillance in Brazil: Evidence for a Geographical Boundary Defining an Area Exhibiting an Abatement of Infections by Candida albicans Group 2 Strains

Prospective population surveillance has been conducted for candidemia in Brazil (A. L. Colombo, M. Nucci, B. J. Park, et al., J. Clin. Microbiol. 44:2816-2823, 2006). in the present study, a total of 63 isolates from 61 patients, representing 11 medical centers from nine geographic regions, were characterized by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). A total of 48 unique profiles or diploid sequence types (DSTs) were observed, with nine new sequence types (STs) and 32 new DSTs. There were no apparent correlations between center/region and DST patterns. Subtypes were compared to those in a known characterized reference set, including a large database of strains obtained worldwide. Significantly, only one C. albicans group 2 isolate was found in our collection, although isolates from this particular group are commonly found worldwide. These data, combined with information from other previously reported studies, establish a statistically significant diminishment of group 2 strains in Central and South America, including Mexico and portions of the Southwestern United States.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Mycot Dis Branch, Atlanta, GA 30333 USAUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Div Infect Dis, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Deep recurrent reinforced learning model to compare the efficacy of targeted local versus national measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the UK

OBJECTIVES: To prevent the emergence of new waves of COVID-19 caseload and associated mortalities, it is imperative to understand better the efficacy of various control measures on the national and local development of this pandemic in space–time, characterise hotspot regions of high risk, quantify the impact of under-reported measures such as international travel and project the likely effect of control measures in the coming weeks. METHODS: We applied a deep recurrent reinforced learning based model to evaluate and predict the spatiotemporal effect of a combination of control measures on COVID-19 cases and mortality at the local authority (LA) and national scale in England, using data from week 5 to 46 of 2020, including an expert curated control measure matrix, official statistics/government data and a secure web dashboard to vary magnitude of control measures. RESULTS: Model predictions of the number of cases and mortality of COVID-19 in the upcoming 5 weeks closely matched the actual values (cases: root mean squared error (RMSE): 700.88, mean absolute error (MAE): 453.05, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): 0.46, correlation coefficient 0.42; mortality: RMSE 14.91, MAE 10.05, MAPE 0.39, correlation coefficient 0.68). Local lockdown with social distancing (LD_SD) (overall rank 3) was found to be ineffective in preventing outbreak rebound following lockdown easing compared with national lockdown (overall rank 2), based on prediction using simulated control measures. The ranking of the effectiveness of adjunctive measures for LD_SD were found to be consistent across hotspot and non-hotspot regions. Adjunctive measures found to be most effective were international travel and quarantine restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of using adjunctive measures in addition to LD_SD following lockdown easing and suggests the potential importance of controlling international travel and applying travel quarantines. Further work is required to assess the effect of variant strains and vaccination measures

Post-operative atrial fibrillation and long-term risk of stroke after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Background: Post-operative atrial fibrillation (pAF) following coronary artery bypass graft-ing (CABG) is a common complication. Whether pAF is associated with an increased risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) remains uncertain. We investigated the association between pAF and long-term risk of CVA by performing a post-hoc analysis of 10-year outcomes of the Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART). Methods: For the present analysis, among patients enrolled in the ART (n=3102), we ex-cluded those who did not undergo surgery (n=25), had a prior history of atrial fibrillation (n=45), or had no information regarding the incidence of pAF (n=9). The final population consisted of 3023 patients of whom 734 (24.3%) developed pAF with the remaining 2289 maintaining sinus rhythm (SR). Competing risk and Cox regression analysis were used to investigate the association between pAF and the risk of CVA. Results: At 10 years, the cumulative incidence of CVA was 6.3% (4.6-8.1) vs 3.7% (2.9-4.5) in patients with pAF and SR respectively. pAF was an independent predictor of CVA at 10 years (HR 1.53; 95%CI 1.06-2.23; P-value=0.025) even when CVAs that occurred during the index admission were excluded from the analysis (HR 1.47; 95% 1.02-2.11; P=0.04). Conclusions: Patients with pAF after CABG are at higher risk of CVA. These findings chal-lenge the notion that pAF is a benign complication.</p

Sensibilidade à cefoxitina, cefoperazona e ticarcilina-ácido clavulânico de cepas do grupo Bacteroides fragilis isoladas de espécimes clínicos

Um total de 40 cepas do grupo B. fragilis foi isolada de espécimes clínicos em dois centros hospitalares de Fortaleza no período de 1993 a 1997. A espécie mais frequentemente isolada foi Bacteroides fragilis (19 cepas) tendo a maioria dos microrganismos sido isolada de infecção intra-abdominal e ferida cirúrgica infectada. Foi traçado o perfil de sensibilidade à cefoxitina, cefoperazona e associação ticarcilina-ácido clavulânico, utilizando-se o método de referência de diluição em ágar. Todas as espécies testadas apresentaram sensibilidade à ticarcilina-ácido clavulânico (128/2mig/ml). Percentuais de resistência de 15 e 70% foram detectados para cefoxitina (64mig/ml) e cefoperazona (64mig/ml) respectivamente. A espécie B. fragilis apresentou os menores percentuais de resistência quando comparada com as demais espécies do grupo. Estes resultados regionais permitem uma melhor orientação na escolha deste grupo de antibióticos, para profilaxia ou terapêutica, principalmente com relação à cefoxitina que é frequentemente empregada nos centros hospitalares estudados.A total of 40 strains of the B. fragilis group was isolated from clinical specimens in two hospital centers in Fortaleza from 1993 to 1997. The most frequently isolated species was Bacteroides fragilis (19 strains) and most isolates came from intra-abdominal and wound infections. The susceptibility profile was traced for cefoxitin, cefoperazone and ticarcillin-clavulanate by using the agar dilution reference method. All isolates were susceptible to ticarcillin-clavulanate (128/2mug/ml). Resistance rates of 15 and 70% were detected to cefoxitin (64mug/ml) and cefoperazone (64mug/ml), respectively. Such regional results permit a better orientation in choosing this group of antibiotics for prophylaxis and therapy especially in relation to cefoxitin, which is frequently used in the hospital centers studied