What's the Worst That Could Happen? Re-examining the 24–25 June 1967 Tornado Outbreak Over Western Europe

Abstract On 24–25 June 1967 one of the most intense European tornado outbreaks produced extensive damage (approximately 960 houses damaged or destroyed) and resulted in 232 injuries and 15 fatalities in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The 24–25 June 1967 tornado outbreak shows that Europe is highly vulnerable to tornadoes. To better understand the impact of European tornadoes and how this impact changed over time, the question is raised, “What would happen if an outbreak similar to the 1967 one occurred 50 years later in 2017 over France, Belgium, and the Netherlands?” Transposing the seven tornado tracks from the June 1967 outbreak over the modern landscape would potentially result in 24 990 buildings being impacted, 255–2580 injuries, and 17–172 fatalities. To determine possible worst-case scenarios, the tornado tracks are moved in a systematic way around their observed positions and positioned over modern maps of buildings and population. The worst-case scenario estimates are 146 222 buildings impacted, 2550–25 440 injuries, and 170–1696 fatalities. These results indicate that the current disaster management policies and mitigation strategies for Europe need to include tornadoes, especially because exposure and tornado risk is anticipated to increase in the near future.</jats:p

Territorial resilience: an economic perspective

During periods of economic growth or crisis / recession, territorial inequalities are becoming more acute. Thus, periods of economic growth determine prosperity for almost all regions, in varying proportions (as a rule, less developed regions benefit more from growth compared to developed ones), while in times of crisis the more developed regions recover more heavily than the least developed, requiring more time to reach the initial level (pre-crisis). The recent global financial crisis has prompted the emergence and promotion of a concept that has also prompted the interest of decision-makers and academics. This concept is called economic resilience and represents "the capacity of a system to resist, absorb or overcome an internal or external economic shock". This interest is also supported by the need to promote solutions and measures to reduce the negative effects of the crisis or economic recession as quickly as possible. Although there is an opinion that the 2008 crisis has ended, not all NUTS-2 regions of the EU-28 have rebounded after the economic downturn. This article aims to invalidate or confirm the subsequent claim by analyzing two indicators relevant for regional performance assessment: GDP per capita and Employment rate. The disaggregated spatial analysis highlights the more nuanced impacts of the crisis. The varied temporal and spatial geography of the crisis raises interesting questions about the relative performance of the regions from the perspective of the two indicators

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase&nbsp;1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation&nbsp;disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age&nbsp; 6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score&nbsp; 652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc&nbsp;= 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N&nbsp;= 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in&nbsp;Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in&nbsp;Asia&nbsp;and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Tornadoes in Romania

Abstract The first tornado climatology for Romania is presented based on datasets attained from three periods between 1822 and 2013. The historical period (1822–1944) contains 33 tornado reports originating from historical newspaper archives and publications of the Romanian Meteorological Institute. Evidence of tornado observations in Romania before the nineteenth century is found in the representation of tornadoes in the Romania folk mythology. The socialist period (1945–89) contains only seven tornado reports, likely because during this period it was believed that tornadoes did not occur in Romania. The recent period (1990–2013) contains 89 tornado reports that came from mass-media sources and eyewitness reports. Of the 129 tornadoes from the Romanian tornado database, 98 were reported between May and July with a peak in May (36 reports). Most of the tornadoes (28 reports) occurred during the afternoon hours 1500–1659 local time. Tornadoes were more frequently reported over eastern Romania compared with other regions of the country, with a maximum over southeastern Romania [0.37–0.45 (105 km2)−1 yr−1].</jats:p

Population Bias on Tornado Reports in Europe

Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian modeling approach was used based on tornado observations and population density for relatively small regions of Europe. The results indicated that the number of tornadoes could be 53% higher that are currently reported. The largest adjustments produced by the model are for Northern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean regions