Inferencia en modelos dinámicos uniecuacionales con variables integradas

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A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

[EN] The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.This work was supported by the Regional Government of Valencia (Generalitat Valenciana, Conselleria d'Educacio, Investigacio, Cultura i Esport) through the project "Formulacion de un hietograma sintetico con reproduccion de las relaciones de dependencia entre variables de evento y de la estructura interna espacio-temporal" (reference GV/2015/064).García Bartual, RL.; Andrés Doménech, I. (2017). A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 21(5):2377-2387. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2377-2017S23772387215Adams, B. J. and Howard, C. D. D.: Design Storm Pathology, Can. Water Resour. J., 11, 49–55, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj1103049, 1986.Alfieri, L., Laio, F., and Claps, P.: A simulation experiment for optimal design hyetograph selection, Hydrol. Process., 22, 813–820, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6646, 2008.Andrés-Doménech, I., Montanari, A., and Marco, J. B.: Stochastic rainfall analysis for storm tank performance evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1221–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1221-2010, 2010.Andrés-Doménech, I., García-Bartual, R., Rico Cortés, M., and Albentosa Hernández, E.: A Gaussian design-storm for Mediterranean convective events. 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Propag., 57, 196–204, 2009.Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W.: Applied hydrology, Mc Graw-Hill, New York, 1988.De Luca, D. L.: Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 1536–1558, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.926013, 2014.Di Baldassarre, G., Brath, A., and Montanari, A.: Reliability of different depth-duration-frequency equations for estimating short-duration design storms, Water Resour. Res., 42, W12501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR004911, 2006.Dunkerley, D.: Identifying individual rain events from pluviography records: a review with analysis of data from an Australian dryland site, Hydrol. Process., 22, 5024–5036, 2008.Frances, F., García-Bartual, R., and Bussi, G.: High return period annual maximum reservoir water level quantiles estimation using synthetic generated flood events, in: “Risk Analysis, Dam Safety, Dam Security and Critical Infrastructure Management”, Taylor and Francis, ISBN 978-0-415-62078-9, 185–190, 2012.French, R. and Jones, M.: Design rainfall temporal patterns in Australian Rainfall and Runoff: Durations exceeding one hour, Australian Journal of Water Resources, 16, 21–27, 2012.Froehlich, D. C.: Mathematical formulations of NRCS 24-hour design storms, J. Irrig. Drain E.-ASCE, 135, 241–247, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2009)135:2(241), 2009.García-Bartual, R. and Marco, J.: A stochastic model of the internal structure of convective precipitation in time at a raingauge site, J. Hydrol., 118, 129–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(90)90254-U, 1990.García-Bartual, R. and Schneider, M.: Estimating maximum expected short-duration rainfall intensities from extreme convective storms, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 26, 675–681, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00068-5, 2001.Hicks, W. I.: A method of computing urban runoff, T. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 109, 1217–1253, 1944.Hogg, W. D.: Time distribution of short duration rainfall in Canada, in: Proceedings Canadian Hydrology Symposium, 80, Ottawa, Ontario, 53–63, 1980.Hogg, W. D.: Distribution of design rainfall with time: design considerations. American Geophysical Union Chapman on Rainfall Rates, Urbana, Illinois, 27–29 April 1982.Hoppe, H.: Impact of input data uncertainties on urban drainage models: climate change – a crucial issue? In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, UK, 31 August–5 September, 10 pp., 2008.Huff, F. A.: Time distribution of rainfall in heavy storms, Water Resour. Res., 3, 1007–1019, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR003i004p01007, 1967.Huff, F. A. and Angel, J. R.: Rainfall Distributions and Hydroclimatic Characteristics of Heavy Rainstorms in Illinois (Bulletin 70), Illinois State Water Survey, 1989.Keifer, C. J. and Chu, H. H.: Synthetic storm pattern for drainage design, J. Hydraul. Eng-ASCE, 83, 1–25, 1957.Kuichling, E.: The relation between rainfall and the discharge in sewers in populous districts, T. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 20, 37–40, 1889.Llasat, M. C.: . An objective classification of rainfall events on the basis of their convective features: application to rainfall intensity in the northeast of Spain, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1385–1400, 2001.McCuen, R. H.: Hydrologic analysis and design, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1989.McPherson, M. B.: Urban runoff control planning, EPA-600/9-78-035, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C., 1978.Northrop, P. J. and Stone, T. M.: A point process model for rainfall with truncated gaussian rain cells. Research Report No. 251, Department of Statistical Science, University College London, 2005.Packman, J. C. and Kidd, C. H. R.: A logical approach to the design storm concept, Water Resour. Res., 16, 994–1000, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR016i006p00994, 1980.Pilgrim, D. H.: Australian rainfall and runoff, a guide to flood estimation. The Institution of Engineers, ACT, Australia, 1987.Pilgrim, D. H. and Cordery, I.: Rainfall temporal patterns for design floods, J. Hydr. Eng. Div.-ASCE, 101, 81–95, 1975.Restrepo-Posada, P. J. and Eagleson, P. S.: Identification of independent rainstorms, J. Hydrol., 55, 303–319, 1982.Rigo, T. and Llasat, M. C.: Radar analysis of the life cycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems during the 10 June 2000 event, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 959–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-959-2005, 2005.Salsón, S. and Garcia-Bartual, R.: A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 103–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-103-2003, 2003.Témez, J.: Cálculo Hidrometeorológico de caudales máximos en pequeñas cuencas naturales, Dirección General de Carreteras, Madrid, España, 1978.Vaskova, I.: Cálculo de las curvas IDF mediante la incorporación de las propiedades de escala y de dependencia temporales, PhD Thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2001 (in Spanish).Walesh, S. G., Lau, D. H., and Liebman, M. D.: Statistically based use of event models. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Urban Storm Runoff, University of Kentucky, Lexington, 75–81, 1979.Watt, E. and Marsalek, J.: Critical review of the evolution of design storm event concept, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 40, 105–113, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2011-0594, 2013

Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability

This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization in the presence of technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities. The model reproduces the main features of European economies and it integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The main result of this paper is that distortionary taxes tend to increase output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes unless substantial rigidities are present. We explore in detail the mechanisms that generate such a result, and the conditions under which the supply-side effects of distortionary taxes and the procyclical behaviour of public spending induced by fiscal rules prevail over the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable incom

Evaluación probabilística de indicadores de eficiencia para el dimensionamiento volumétrico de tanques de tormenta para el control de la contaminación de escorrentías urbanas

Los depósitos de retención de aguas de tormenta son elementos eficaces para paliar los efectos de los vertidos de escorrentías urbanas en tiempo de lluvia al medio receptor. Su uso está hoy en día extendido; sin embargo, existe una gran dispersión de directrices para la determinación del volumen óptimo de almacenamiento. La caracterización estocástica del régimen de lluvia, fenómeno inicial del proceso, es la que marca sin duda el desarrollo de un determinado método. Consecuentemente, aunque el planteamiento metodológico pueda seguir ciertas pautas generales, el desarrollo del mismo y los resultados obtenidos no son en absoluto generalizables. El análisis pasa, en aras del cumplimiento de las exigencias de la Directiva Marco del Agua 2000/60/CE, por el establecimiento de un objetivo de calidad en el medio receptor, puesto que de ello depende el volumen de depósito. El impacto ambiental sobre los medios receptores que provocan los vertidos desde un tanque de tormentas puede enfocarse de dos formas diferentes, estableciendo los llamados estándares de emisión (Emission Standards, ES) o bien los objetivos de calidad ambiental (Environmental Quality Standards, EQS). El primer nivel en cuanto a objetivos de protección lo constituyen los ES. Con ellos se imponen restricciones a los vertidos, evaluando su frecuencia, volumen, carga contaminante, etc. Existen y se utilizan diferentes formas de fijar un ES. Las más usuales hacen referencia a la frecuencia de los vertidos y a la reducción del volumen de escorrentía o carga contaminante vertidos al medio receptor. El análisis con ES presenta la ventaja de resultar en metodologías fácilmente aplicables, pero adolece de considerar al medio receptor en sí, por lo que no discrimina los impactos que las descargas producen en él. Por este motivo, se plantea el segundo nivel en objetivos de protección con los EQS, que son objetivos que se definen no sobre los propios vertidos sino directamente sobre el medio receptor.Andrés Doménech, I. (2010). Evaluación probabilística de indicadores de eficiencia para el dimensionamiento volumétrico de tanques de tormenta para el control de la contaminación de escorrentías urbanas [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/8387Palanci

Interactive comment on "Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables by a trivariate copula function"

Andrés Doménech, I. (2011). Interactive comment on "Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables by a trivariate copula function". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 8(1):435-438. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/45419S4354388

stochastic rainfall analysis for storm tank performance evaluation

Abstract. Stormwater detention tanks are widely used for mitigating impacts of combined sewer overflows (CSO) from urban catchments into receiving water bodies. The optimal size of detention tanks depends on climate and sewer system behaviours and can be estimated by using derived distribution approaches. They are based on using a stochastic model to fit the statistical pattern of observed rainfall records and a urban hydrology model to transform rainfall in sewer discharge. A key issue is the identification of the optimal structure of the stochastic rainfall model. Point processes are frequently applied, where rainfall events are schematised through the occurrence of rectangular pulses, which are governed by rainfall descriptors. In the presented model these latter descriptors are the interevent time (duration of the dry period between consecutive storms), event rainfall depth and event rainfall duration. This paper focuses on the analytical derivation of the probability distribution of the number and volume of overflows from the storm tank to the receiving water body for different and non-standard shapes of the probability distribution for above mentioned descriptors. The proposed approach is applied to 2 different sites in Spain: Valencia and Santander, located on the Mediterranean and northern Atlantic coastline, respectively. For both cases, it turned out that Pareto and Gamma-2 probability distributions for rainfall depth and duration provided a better fit than the exponential model, widely used in previous studies. A comparison between the two climatic zones, humid and semiarid, respectively, proves the key role played by climatic conditions for storm detention tanks sizing

The stabilizing role of government size

This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by introducing rule-of-thumb consumers. In this modified version of our initial model we observe that consumption volatility is also reduced when government size increases in similar way to the observed pattern in OECD economies over the last 45 year

What works (and what does not) to incorporate ethics as a cross curricular competence?

In 2013, an ambitious plan was implemented at Universitat Politècnica de València aiming at ensuring that all graduates achieved a set of 13 transversal competences which would make them excellent graduates not only from a technical point of view, but also beyond. One of these competences in which we want to train and assess our students is "ethical, environmental and professional responsibility". This paper presents the study carried out to check whether this objective is achieved or not for graduates from six different degrees taught at UPV. To this end, we analysed activities developed within each Bachelor degree curriculum, studying the suitability of each activity to the level of knowledge required in each course. We also analysed the perception of students and lecturers in charge of incorporating this transversal content within their subjects. In view of the results obtained, "good practices" are proposed, indicating the activities carried out which have succeeded in increasing the students' training and knowledge related to this topic. Activities, which, despite being carried out for a certain purpose, do not manage to work on and assess this cross curricular competence, are discussed

Revisiting the student outcome "ethical, environmental and professional responsibility" within the Civil Engineering Bachelor Degree

[EN] In 2013, an institutional project was launched at Universitat Politècnica de València to ensure that all graduates, in addition to acquiring the specific technological skills of their degrees, would also acquire a series of essential soft skills for developing their profession in an excellent way. At present, there are already graduates who have completed the degree with the integration of generic outcomes; therefore, it is time to review the success that the project has achieved. One of these generic outcomes is "Ethical, environmental and professional responsibility". In this work, we develop a diagnosis of the current state of this competence in the civil engineering BSc degree programme, and we analyse the level of acquisition of the competence by students. For this purpose, the subjects in which this generic competence is worked on and evaluated will be analysed, studying how lecturers introduce it within different activities to collect evidences of the competence level of acquisition. We also studied whether the results obtained respond to the expected learning goals. The diagnosis will be completed by collecting opinions from last year students, as well as by interviewing lecturers responsible for these subjects. The final objective of the project will be to estimate at what extent the students have acquired this competence upon graduation and to propose improvement measures if necessary.Gimenez-Carbo, E.; Gómez-Martín, ME.; Andrés-Doménech, I. (2020). Revisiting the student outcome "ethical, environmental and professional responsibility" within the Civil Engineering Bachelor Degree. SEFI. 802-809. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/177483S80280

ArcDrain: A GIS Add-In for Automated Determination of Surface Runoff in Urban Catchments

ABSTRACT: Surface runoff determination in urban areas is crucial to facilitate ex ante water planning, especially in the context of climate and land cover changes, which are increasing the frequency of floods, due to a combination of violent storms and increased imperviousness. To this end, the spatial identification of urban areas prone to runoff accumulation is essential, to guarantee effective water management in the future. Under these premises, this work sought to produce a tool for automated determination of urban surface runoff using a geographic information systems (GIS). This tool, which was designed as an ArcGIS add-in called ArcDrain, consists of the discretization of urban areas into subcatchments and the subsequent application of the rational method for runoff depth estimation. The formulation of this method directly depends on land cover type and soil permeability, thereby enabling the identification of areas with a low infiltration capacity. ArcDrain was tested using the city of Santander (northern Spain) as a case study. The results achieved demonstrated the accuracy of the tool for detecting high runoff rates and how the inclusion of mitigation measures in the form of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) and green infrastructure (GI) can help reduce flood hazards in critical zonesThis research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities, with funds from the State General Budget (PGE) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), grant number RTI2018-094217-B-C32 (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE)