Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in Livelihood Vulnerability Analysis

Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems, as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. We applied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of both direct and indirect feedbacks and can be used to explore the vulnerabilities of livelihoods to identified hazards. We studied characteristics and drivers of rural livelihoods in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southern Africa to assess the vulnerability of inhabitants to the different hazards they face. The process involved four steps: (1) surveys and interviews to identify the major livelihood types; (2) description of specific livelihood types in a system format using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that models systems based on people’s knowledge; (3) linking variables and drivers in FCMs by attaching weights; and (4) defining and applying scenarios to visualize the effects of drought and changing park boundaries on cash and household food security. FCMs successfully gave information concerning the nature (increase or decrease) and magnitude by which a livelihood system changed under different scenarios. However, they did not explain the recovery path in relation to time and pattern (e.g., how long it takes for cattle to return to desired numbers after a drought). Using FCMs revealed that issues of policy, such as changing situations at borders, can strongly aggravate effects of climate change such as drought. FCMs revealed hidden knowledge and gave insights that improved the understanding of the complexity of livelihood systems in a way that is better appreciated by stakeholders

A New Method for the Detection of Galaxy Clusters in X-Ray Surveys

For many years the power of counting clusters of galaxies as a function of their mass has been recognized as a powerful cosmological probe; however, we are only now beginning to acquire data from dedicated surveys with sufcient sky coverage and sensitivity to measure the cluster population out to distances where the dark energy came to dominate the Universe’s evolution. One such survey uses the XMM X-ray telescope to scan a large area of sky, detecting the X-ray photons from the hot plasma that lies in the deep potential wells of massive clusters of galaxies. These clusters appear as extended (not point-like) objects, each providing just a few hundred photons in a typical observation. The detection of extended sources in such a low signal-to-noise situation is an important problem in astrophysics: we attempt to solve it by using as much prior information as possible, translating our experience with wellmeasured clusters to define a “template” cluster that can be varied and matched to the features seen in the XMM images. In this work we adapt an existing Monte Carlo analysis code for this problem. Two detection templates were dened and their suitability explored using simulated data; the method was then applied to a publically avalable XMM observation of a “blank” field. Presented are the encouraging results of this series of experiments, suggesting that this approach continue to be developed for future cluster-identication endeavours

Competing Claims on Natural Resources: What Role for Science?

Competing claims on natural resources become increasingly acute, with the poor being most vulnerable to adverse outcomes of such competition. A major challenge for science and policy is to progress from facilitating univocal use to guiding stakeholders in dealing with potentially conflicting uses of natural resources. The development of novel, more equitable, management options that reduce rural poverty is key to achieving sustainable use of natural resources and the resolution of conflicts over them. Here, we describe an interdisciplinary and interactive approach for: (i) the understanding of competing claims and stakeholder objectives; (ii) the identification of alternative resource use options, and (iii) the scientific support to negotiation processes between stakeholders. Central to the outlined approach is a shifted perspective on the role of scientific knowledge in society. Understanding scientific knowledge as entering societal arenas and as fundamentally negotiated, the role of the scientist becomes a more modest one, a contributor to ongoing negotiation processes among stakeholders. Scientists can, therefore, not merely describe and explain resource-use dynamics and competing claims, but in doing so, they should actively contribute to negotiation processes between stakeholders operating at different scales (local, national, regional, and global). Together with stakeholders, they explore alternatives that can contribute to more sustainable and equitable use of natural resources and, where possible, design new technical options and institutional arrangements

Asymptotic Expansions for Stationary Distributions of Perturbed Semi-Markov Processes

New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with asymptotically coupled and uncoupled finite phase spaces.Comment: 83 page

Faster Approximate String Matching for Short Patterns

We study the classical approximate string matching problem, that is, given strings $P$ and $Q$ and an error threshold $k$, find all ending positions of substrings of $Q$ whose edit distance to $P$ is at most $k$. Let $P$ and $Q$ have lengths $m$ and $n$, respectively. On a standard unit-cost word RAM with word size $w \geq \log n$ we present an algorithm using time $$O(nk \cdot \min(\frac{\log^2 m}{\log n},\frac{\log^2 m\log w}{w}) + n)$$ When $P$ is short, namely, $m = 2^{o(\sqrt{\log n})}$ or $m = 2^{o(\sqrt{w/\log w})}$ this improves the previously best known time bounds for the problem. The result is achieved using a novel implementation of the Landau-Vishkin algorithm based on tabulation and word-level parallelism.Comment: To appear in Theory of Computing System

Inclusive production of ρ0(770),f0(980)\rho^{0}(770), f_0(980) and f2(1270)f_2(1270) mesons in νμ\nu_{\mu} charged current interactions

The inclusive production of the meson resonances $\rho^{0}(770)$, $f_0(980)$ and $f_2(1270)$ in neutrino-nucleus charged current interactions has been studied with the NOMAD detector exposed to the wide band neutrino beam generated by 450 GeV protons at the CERN SPS. For the first time the $f_{0}(980)$ meson is observed in neutrino interactions. The statistical significance of its observation is 6 standard deviations. The presence of $f_{2}(1270)$ in neutrino interactions is reliably established. The average multiplicity of these three resonances is measured as a function of several kinematic variables. The experimental results are compared to the multiplicities obtained from a simulation based on the Lund model. In addition, the average multiplicity of $\rho^{0}(770)$ in antineutrino - nucleus interactions is measured.Comment: 23 pages, 14 figures, 8 tables. To appear in Nucl. Phys.

Deformations Preserving Gauß Curvature

(Proceedings of LHMTS 2013)International audienceIn industrial surface generation, it is important to consider surfaces with minimal areas for two main reasons: these surfaces require less material than non-minimal surfaces, and they are cheaper to manufacture. Based on a prototype, a so-called masterpiece, the final product is created using small deformations to adapt a surface to the desired shape. We present a linear deformation technique preserving the total curvature of the masterpiece. In particular, we derive sufficient conditions for these linear deformations to be total curvature preserving when applied to the masterpiece. It is useful to preserve total curvature of a surface in order to minimise the amount of material needed, and to minimise bending energy

Long-term exposure to transportation noise and risk of incident stroke:A pooled study of nine scandinavian cohorts

BACKGROUND: Transportation noise is increasingly acknowledged as a cardiovascular risk factor, but the evidence base for an association with stroke is sparse. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the association between transportation noise and stroke incidence in a large Scandinavian population. METHODS: We harmonized and pooled data from nine Scandinavian cohorts (seven Swedish, two Danish), totaling 135,951 participants. We identified residential address history and estimated road, railway, and aircraft noise for all addresses. Information on stroke incidence was acquired through link-age to national patient and mortality registries. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models, including socioeconomic and lifestyle con-founders, and air pollution. RESULTS: During follow-up (median = 19:5 y), 11,056 stroke cases were identified. Road traffic noise (Lden ) was associated with risk of stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.08] per 10-dB higher 5-y mean time-weighted exposure in analyses adjusted for indi-vidual-and area-level socioeconomic covariates. The association was approximately linear and persisted after adjustment for air pollution [particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2:5 lm (PM2:5 ) and NO2 ]. Stroke was associated with moderate levels of 5-y aircraft noise exposure (40–50 vs. ≤40 dB) (HR = 1:12; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), but not with higher exposure (≥50 dB, HR = 0:94; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.11). Railway noise was not associated with stroke. DISCUSSION: In this pooled study, road traffic noise was associated with a higher risk of stroke. This finding supports road traffic noise as an important cardiovascular risk factor that should be included when estimating the burden of disease due to traffic noise. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8949

Alpha-Photon Coincidence Spectroscopy Along Element 115 Decay Chains

Produced in the reaction 48Ca+243Am, thirty correlated α-decay chains were observed in an experiment conducted at the GSI Helmholzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt, Germany. The decay chains are basically consistent with previous findings and are considered to originate from isotopes of element 115 with mass numbers 287, 288, and 289. A set-up aiming specifically for high-resolution charged particle and photon coincidence spectroscopy was placed behind the gas-filled separator TASCA. For the first time, γ rays as well as X-ray candidates were observed in prompt coincidence with the α-decay chains of element 115

Recoil-α-fission and recoil-α-α-fission events observed in the reaction 48Ca + 243Am

Products of the fusion-evaporation reaction 48Ca + 243Am were studied with the TASISpec set-up at the gas-filled separator TASCA at the GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt, Germany. Amongst the detected thirty correlated α-decay chains associated with the production of element Z=115, two recoil-α-fission and five recoil-α-α-fission events were observed. The latter five chains are similar to four such events reported from experiments performed at the Dubna gas-filled separator, and three such events reported from an experiment at the Berkeley gas-filled separator. The four chains observed at the Dubna gas-filled separator were assigned to start from the 2n-evaporation channel 289115 due to the fact that these recoil-α-α-fission events were observed only at low excitation energies. Contrary to this interpretation, we suggest that some of these recoil-α-α-fission decay chains, as well as some of the recoil-α-α-fission and recoil-α-fission decay chains reported from Berkeley and in this article, start from the 3n-evaporation channel 288115