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Who wrote Ronald Reagan's radio addresses?
In his campaign for the U.S. presidency from 1975 to 1979, Ronald Reagan delivered over 1000 radio broadcasts. For over 600 of these we have direct evidence of Reagan's authorship. The aim of this study was to determine the authorship of 312 of the broadcasts for which no direct evidence is available. We addressed the prediction problem for speeches delivered in different epochs and we explored a wide range of off-the-shelf classification methods and fully Bayesian generative models. Eventually we produced separate sets of predictions using the most accurate classifiers, based on non-contextual words as well as on semantic features, for the 312 speeches of uncertain authorship. All the predictions agree on 135 of the "unknown" speeches, whereas the fully Bayesian models agree on an additional 154 of them.
The magnitude of the posterior odds of authorship led us to conclude that Ronald Reagan drafted 167 speeches and was aided in the preparation of the remaining 145. Our inferences were not sensitive to "reasonable" variations in the sets of constants underlying the prior distributions, and the cross-validated accuracy of our best fully Bayesian model was above 90 percent in all cases. The agreement of multiple methods for predicting the authorship for the "unknown" speeches reinforced our confidence in the accuracy of our classifications.Statistic
Beyond prevalence to process : the role of self and identity in medical student well-being
Context Problematic stress levels among medical students have been well established. This stress can lead to depression, suicidal ideation, substance abuse, burnout and cynicism, having a negative effect on students and their patients. Methods We propose to move towards examining the processes underlying well-being in some medical students and vulnerability in others. We draw upon social psychological literature to propose that self-complexity, medical student identity and associated norms all have the capacity to influence medical students' well-being in both positive and negative ways. Results We identify two key dilemmas facing medical students with regard to the social psychological factors investigated. First, a diverse set of interests and a high level of self-complexity is thought to buffer against the effects of stress and might also be beneficial for medical practitioners, but the intensive nature of medical education makes it difficult for students to pursue outside interests, leading to a strongly focused identity. Second, a strong group identity is associated with high levels of social support and improved well-being, but unhealthy group norms may have a greater influence on individuals who have a strong group identity, encouraging them to engage in behaviours that place their well-being at risk. A model is proposed outlining how these potentially contradictory social psychological processes may combine to impact upon medical students' well-being. Conclusions There is great scope for investigating the role of self-complexity, identity and norms in the medical education context, with room to investigate each of these factors alone and in combination. We highlight how our proposed model can inform medical educators as to the students who may be most vulnerable to the effects of stress and the potential interventions from which they may benefit. We conclude that social psychological factors make a valuable contribution to understanding the complex issue of well-being in medical education.PostprintPeer reviewe
Beyond prevalence to process:the role of self and identity in medical student well-being
ContextProblematic stress levels among medical students have been well established. This stress can lead to depression, suicidal ideation, substance abuse, burnout and cynicism, having a negative effect on students and their patients.MethodsWe propose to move towards examining the processes underlying well-being in some medical students and vulnerability in others. We draw upon social psychological literature to propose that self-complexity, medical student identity and associated norms all have the capacity to influence medical students' well-being in both positive and negative ways.ResultsWe identify two key dilemmas facing medical students with regard to the social psychological factors investigated. First, a diverse set of interests and a high level of self-complexity is thought to buffer against the effects of stress and might also be beneficial for medical practitioners, but the intensive nature of medical education makes it difficult for students to pursue outside interests, leading to a strongly focused identity. Second, a strong group identity is associated with high levels of social support and improved well-being, but unhealthy group norms may have a greater influence on individuals who have a strong group identity, encouraging them to engage in behaviours that place their well-being at risk. A model is proposed outlining how these potentially contradictory social psychological processes may combine to impact upon medical students' well-being.ConclusionsThere is great scope for investigating the role of self-complexity, identity and norms in the medical education context, with room to investigate each of these factors alone and in combination. We highlight how our proposed model can inform medical educators as to the students who may be most vulnerable to the effects of stress and the potential interventions from which they may benefit. We conclude that social psychological factors make a valuable contribution to understanding the complex issue of well-being in medical education