Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

Parental socioeconomic position and development of overweight in adolescence: longitudinal study of Danish adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An inverse social gradient in overweight among adolescents has been shown in developed countries, but few studies have examined whether weight gain and the development of overweight differs among adolescents from different socioeconomic groups in a longitudinal study. The objective was to identify the possible association between parental socioeconomic position, weight change and the risk of developing overweight among adolescents between the ages 15 to 21.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective cohort study conducted in Denmark with baseline examination in 1996 and follow-up questionnaire in 2003 with a mean follow-up time of 6.4 years. A sample of 1,656 adolescents participated in both baseline (mean age 14.8) and follow-up (mean age 21.3). Of these, 1,402 had a body mass index (BMI = weight/height²kg/m²) corresponding to a value below 25 at baseline when adjusted for age and gender according to guidelines from International Obesity Taskforce, and were at risk of developing overweight during the study period. The exposure was parental occupational status. The main outcome measures were change in BMI and development of overweight (from BMI < 25 to BMI > = 25).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average BMI increased from 21.3 to 22.7 for girls and from 20.6 to 23.6 in boys during follow-up. An inverse social gradient in overweight was seen for girls at baseline and follow-up and for boys at follow-up. In the full population there was a tendency to an inverse social gradient in the overall increase in BMI for girls, but not for boys. A total of 13.4% developed overweight during the follow-up period. Girls of lower parental socioeconomic position had a higher risk of developing overweight (OR's between 4.72; CI 1.31 to 17.04 and 2.03; CI 1.10-3.74) when compared to girls of high parental socioeconomic position. A tendency for an inverse social gradient in the development of overweight for boys was seen, but it did not meet the significance criteria</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The levels of overweight and obesity among adolescents are high and continue to rise. Results from this study suggest that the inverse social gradient in overweight becomes steeper for girls and emerges for boys in late adolescence (age span 15 to 21 years). Late adolescence seems to be an important window of opportunity in reducing the social inequality in overweight among Danish adolescents.</p

The quest for the solar g modes

Solar gravity modes (or g modes) -- oscillations of the solar interior for which buoyancy acts as the restoring force -- have the potential to provide unprecedented inference on the structure and dynamics of the solar core, inference that is not possible with the well observed acoustic modes (or p modes). The high amplitude of the g-mode eigenfunctions in the core and the evanesence of the modes in the convection zone make the modes particularly sensitive to the physical and dynamical conditions in the core. Owing to the existence of the convection zone, the g modes have very low amplitudes at photospheric levels, which makes the modes extremely hard to detect. In this paper, we review the current state of play regarding attempts to detect g modes. We review the theory of g modes, including theoretical estimation of the g-mode frequencies, amplitudes and damping rates. Then we go on to discuss the techniques that have been used to try to detect g modes. We review results in the literature, and finish by looking to the future, and the potential advances that can be made -- from both data and data-analysis perspectives -- to give unambiguous detections of individual g modes. The review ends by concluding that, at the time of writing, there is indeed a consensus amongst the authors that there is currently no undisputed detection of solar g modes.Comment: 71 pages, 18 figures, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

Effects on musculoskeletal pain, work ability and sickness absence in a 1-year randomised controlled trial among cleaners

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Only a few workplace initiatives among cleaners have been reported, even though they constitute a job group in great need of health promotion. The purpose of this trial was to evaluate the effect of either physical coordination training or cognitive behavioural training on musculoskeletal pain, work ability and sickness absence among cleaners.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted among 294 female cleaners allocated to either physical coordination training (PCT), cognitive behavioural training (CBTr) or a reference group (REF). Questionnaires about musculoskeletal pain and work ability were completed at baseline and after one year's intervention. Sickness absence data were obtained from the managers' records. Analyses were performed according to the intention-to-treat-principle (ITT).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No overall reduction in musculoskeletal pain, work ability or sickness absence from either PCT or CBTr compared with REF was found in conservative ITT analyses. However, explorative analyses revealed a treatment effect for musculoskeletal pain of the PCT. People with chronic neck/shoulder pain at baseline were more frequently non-chronic at follow-up after PCT compared with REF (p = 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The PCT intervention appeared effective for reducing chronic neck/shoulder pain among the female cleaners. It is recommended that future interventions among similar high-risk job groups focus on the implementation aspects of the interventions to maximise outcomes more distal from the intervention such as work ability and sickness absence.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN96241850">ISRCTN96241850</a></p

Use of a recombinant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain expressing C-Raf for protection against C-Raf induced lung adenoma in mice

BACKGROUND: Serine-threonine kinases of the Raf family (A-Raf, B-Raf, C-Raf) are central players in cellular signal transduction, and thus often causally involved in the development of cancer when mutated or over-expressed. Therefore these proteins are potential targets for immunotherapy and a possible basis for vaccine development against tumors. In this study we analyzed the functionality of a new live C-Raf vaccine based on an attenuated Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium aroA strain in two Raf dependent lung tumor mouse models. METHODS: The antigen C-Raf has been fused to the C-terminal secretion signal of Escherichia coli α-hemolysin and expressed in secreted form by an attenuated aroA Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain via the α-hemolysin secretion pathway. The effect of the immunization with this recombinant C-Raf strain on wild-type C57BL/6 or lung tumor bearing transgenic BxB mice was analyzed using western blot and FACS analysis as well as specific tumor growth assays. RESULTS: C-Raf antigen was successfully expressed in secreted form by an attenuated Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium aroA strain using the E. coli hemolysin secretion system. Immunization of wild-type C57BL/6 or tumor bearing mice provoked specific C-Raf antibody and T-cell responses. Most importantly, the vaccine strain significantly reduced tumor growth in two transgenic mouse models of Raf oncogene-induced lung adenomas. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of the C-Raf antigen, hemolysin secretion system and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium could form the basis for a new generation of live bacterial vaccines for the treatment of Raf dependent human malignancies

The developmental regulator Pax6 is essential for maintenance of islet cell function in the adult mouse pancreas

The transcription factor Pax6 is a developmental regulator with a crucial role in development of the eye, brain, and olfactory system. Pax6 is also required for correct development of the endocrine pancreas and specification of hormone producing endocrine cell types. Glucagon-producing cells are almost completely lost in Pax6-null embryos, and insulin-expressing beta and somatostatin-expressing delta cells are reduced. While the developmental role of Pax6 is well-established, investigation of a further role for Pax6 in the maintenance of adult pancreatic function is normally precluded due to neonatal lethality of Pax6-null mice. Here a tamoxifen-inducible ubiquitous Cre transgene was used to inactivate Pax6 at 6 months of age in a conditional mouse model to assess the effect of losing Pax6 function in adulthood. The effect on glucose homeostasis and the expression of key islet cell markers was measured. Homozygous Pax6 deletion mice, but not controls, presented with all the symptoms of classical diabetes leading to severe weight loss requiring termination of the experiment five weeks after first tamoxifen administration. Immunohistochemical analysis of the pancreata revealed almost complete loss of Pax6 and much reduced expression of insulin, glucagon, and somatostatin. Several other markers of islet cell function were also affected. Notably, strong upregulation in the number of ghrelin-expressing endocrine cells was observed. These findings demonstrate that Pax6 is essential for adult maintenance of glucose homeostasis and function of the endocrine pancreas

Estrogen receptor α polymorphisms and postmenopausal breast cancer risk

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: The estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) is a mediator of estrogen response in the breast. The most studied variants in this gene are the PvuII and XbaI polymorphisms, which have been associated to lower sensitivity to estrogen. We evaluated whether these polymorphisms were associated with breast cancer risk by means of an association study in a population of Caucasian postmenopausal women from the Rotterdam study and a meta-analysis of published data. METHODS: The PvuII and XbaI polymorphisms were genotyped in 3,893 women participants of the Rotterdam Study. Baseline information was obtained through a questionnaire. We conducted logistic regression analyses to assess the risk of breast cancer by each of the ESR1 genotypes. Meta-analyses of all publications on these relations were done by retrieving literature from Pubmed and by further checking the reference lists of the articles obtained. RESULTS: There were 38 women with previously diagnosed breast cancer. During follow-up, 152 were additionally diagnosed. The logistic regression analyses showed no difference in risk for postmenopausal breast cancer in carriers of the PvuII or XbaI genotypes neither in overall, incident or prevalent cases. No further evidence of a role of these variants was found in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the ESR1 polymorphisms do not play a role in breast cancer risk in Caucasian postmenopausal women