Combination of Growth Model and Earned Schedule to Forecast Project Cost at Completion

To improve the accuracy of early forecasting the final cost at completion of an ongoing construction project, a new regression-based nonlinear cost estimate at completion (CEAC) methodology is proposed that integrates a growth model with earned schedule (ES) concepts. The methodology provides CEAC computations for project early-stage and middle-stage completion. To this end, this paper establishes three primary objectives, as follows: (1) develop a new formula based on integration of the ES method and four candidate growth models (logistic, Gompertz, Bass, andWeibull), (2) validate the new methodology through its application to nine past projects, and (3) select the equation with the best-performing growth model through testing their statistical validity and comparing the accuracy of their CEAC estimates. Based on statistical validity analysis of the four growth models and comparison of CEAC errors, the CEAC formula based on the Gompertz model is better-fitting and generates more accurate final-cost estimates than those computed by using the other three models and the index-based method. The proposed methodology is a theoretical contribution towards the combination of earned-value metrics with regression-based studies. It also brings practical implications associated with usage of a viable and accurate forecasting technique that considers the schedule impact as a determinant factor of cost behavio

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Investigating the Glycating Effects of Glucose, Glyoxal and Methylglyoxal on Human Sperm

Glycation is the non-enzymatic reaction between reducing sugars, such as glucose, and proteins, lipids or nucleic acids, producing Advanced Glycation End (AGE) products. AGEs, produced during natural senescence as well as through lifestyle factors such as diet and smoking, are key pathogenic compounds in the initiation and progression of diabetes. Importantly, many of these factors and conditions also have influence on male fertility, affecting sperm count and semen quality, contributing to the decreasing trend in male fertility. This study investigated the impact of AGEs on sperm damage. In vitro sperm glycation assays were used to determine the levels and localization of the potent AGE compound, carboxymethyl-lysine (CML) in response to treatment with the glycating compounds glucose, glyoxal and methylglyoxal. Sperm function assays were then used to assess the effects of glycation on motility and hyaluronan binding, and levels of oxidative DNA damage were analyzed through measurement of the marker, 8-oxoguanine. Results showed that glyoxal, but not glucose or methylglyoxal, induced significant increases in CML levels on sperm and this correlated with an increase in 8-oxoguanine. Immunocytochemistry revealed that AGEs were located on all parts of the sperm cell and most prominently on the head region. Sperm motility and hyaluronidase activity were not adversely affected by glycation. Together, the observed detrimental effects of the increased levels of AGE on DNA integrity, without an effect on motility and hyaluronidase activity, suggest that sperm may retain some fertilizing capacity under these adverse conditions

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Measurement of systemic and local respiratory cell-mediated immunity after influenza infection in chickens.

&lt;p&gt;The detection of ChIFN production after ex vivo antigenic-stimulation of T-lymphocytes has been evaluated for the first time, as a tool to assess cell-mediated immunity (CMI) after avian influenza (AI) infection in 10-day-old SPF chickens. Preliminarily, recall antigens have been produced either by concentrating and inactivating the whole virus or by dissociating the viral proteins. Biologically and structurally intact forms of the viral proteins were isolated by non-ionic detergents while heating, chemical agents and ionic detergent used for virus inactivation altered the antigenic viral components. The n-octyl-B-D-gluco-pyranoside treatment at low temperature was very efficient to produce AI antigenic proteins used for evaluation of ChIFN production after ex vivo antigenic-stimulation of splenic and peripheral lymphocytes. In addition, protocols to isolate lymphocytes from the respiratory tract - the trachea and the lung - have been adapted for local CMI evaluation after similar ex vivo recall assay. Specific AI CMI in the spleen, the blood and the lung was detected for 5 weeks after low pathogenic AI (LPAI) infection in chickens, while further development is needed for tracheal CMI measurement.&lt;/p&gt;</p