Anticipatory Thinking Challenges in Open Worlds: Risk Management

Anticipatory thinking drives our ability to manage risk - identification and mitigation - in everyday life, from bringing an umbrella when it might rain to buying car insurance. As AI systems become part of everyday life, they too have begun to manage risk. Autonomous vehicles log millions of miles, StarCraft and Go agents have similar capabilities to humans, implicitly managing risks presented by their opponents. To further increase performance in these tasks, out-of-distribution evaluation can characterize a model's bias, what we view as a type of risk management. However, learning to identify and mitigate low-frequency, high-impact risks is at odds with the observational bias required to train machine learning models. StarCraft and Go are closed-world domains whose risks are known and mitigations well documented, ideal for learning through repetition. Adversarial filtering datasets provide difficult examples but are laborious to curate and static, both barriers to real-world risk management. Adversarial robustness focuses on model poisoning under the assumption there is an adversary with malicious intent, without considering naturally occurring adversarial examples. These methods are all important steps towards improving risk management but do so without considering open-worlds. We unify these open-world risk management challenges with two contributions. The first is our perception challenges, designed for agents with imperfect perceptions of their environment whose consequences have a high impact. Our second contribution are cognition challenges, designed for agents that must dynamically adjust their risk exposure as they identify new risks and learn new mitigations. Our goal with these challenges is to spur research into solutions that assess and improve the anticipatory thinking required by AI agents to manage risk in open-worlds and ultimately the real-world.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, appeared in the non-archival AAAI 2022 Spring Syposium on "Designing Artificial Intelligence for Open Worlds

Summarizing and Comparing Story Plans

Branching story games have gained popularity for creating unique playing experiences by adapting story content in response to user actions. Research in interactive narrative (IN) uses automated planning to generate story plans for a given story problem. However, a story planner can generate multiple story plan solutions, all of which equally-satisfy the story problem definition but contain different story content. These differences in story content are key to understanding the story branches in a story problem\u27s solution space, however we lack narrative-theoretic metrics to compare story plans. We address this gap by first defining a story plan summarization model to capture the important story semantics from a story plan. Secondly, we define a story plan comparison metric that compares story plans based on the summarization model. Using the Glaive narrative planner and a simple story problem, we demonstrate the usefulness of using the summarization model and distance metric to characterize the different story branches in a story problem\u27s solution space

Good Timing for Computational Models of Narrative Discourse

The temporal order in which story events are presented in discourse can greatly impact how readers experience narrative; however, it remains unclear how narrative systems can leverage temporal order to affect comprehension and experience. We define structural properties of discourse which provide a basis for computational narratologists to reason about good timing, such as when readers learn about event relationships

Binding Site Prediction for Protein-Protein Interactions and Novel Motif Discovery using Re-occurring Polypeptide Sequences

Background: While there are many methods for predicting protein-protein interaction, very few can determine the specific site of interaction on each protein. Characterization of the specific sequence regions mediating interaction (binding sites) is crucial for an understanding of cellular pathways. Experimental methods often report false binding sites due to experimental limitations, while computational methods tend to require data which is not available at the proteome-scale. Here we present PIPE-Sites, a novel method of protein specific binding site prediction based on pairs of re-occurring polypeptide sequences, which have been previously shown to accurately predict proteinprotein interactions. PIPE-Sites operates at high specificity and requires only the sequences of query proteins and a database of known binary interactions with no binding site data, making it applicable to binding site prediction at the proteome-scale. Results: PIPE-Sites was evaluated using a dataset of 265 yeast and 423 human interacting proteins pairs with experimentally-determined binding sites. We found that PIPE-Sites predictions were closer to the confirmed binding site than those of two existing binding site prediction methods based on domain-domain interactions, when applied to the same dataset. Finally, we applied PIPE-Sites to two datasets of 2347 yeast and 14,438 human novel interacting protein pairs predicted to interact with high confidence. An analysis of the predicted interaction sites revealed a number of protein subsequences which are highly re-occurring in binding sites and which may represent novel binding motifs. Conclusions: PIPE-Sites is an accurate method for predicting protein binding sites and is applicable to the proteome-scale. Thus, PIPE-Sites could be useful for exhaustive analysis of protein binding patterns in whole proteomes as well as discovery of novel binding motifs. PIPE-Sites is available online a

Problem Formulation for Accommodation Support in Plan-Based Interactive Narratives

Branching story games have gained popularity for adapting to user actions within a story world. An active area of Interactive Narrative (IN) research uses automated planning to generate story plans as it can lighten the authorial burden of writing a branching story. Branches can be generated from a declarative representation rather than hand-crafted. A goal of an Experience Manager (EM) is to guide a user through a space of desirable narrative trajectories, or story branches, in an IN. However, in the cases when an EM must accommodate user actions and mediate them from a desired narrative trajectory to a new narrative trajectory, automated planning’s authorial advantage becomes a liability as the available narrative trajectories are not known apriori. This limitation can lead to the EM choosing a new narrative trajectory that is not coherent with the previous one and may result in a negative user experience. The goal of my research is to develop a problem formulation methodology for story planning problems that elicits the available narrative trajectories enabling an EM to execute more coherent accommodations

Risk Management: Anticipating and Reacting in StarCraft

Managing risk with imperfect information is something humans do every day, but we have little insight into the abilities of AI agents to do so. We define two risk management strategies and perform an ability-based evaluation using StarCraft agents. Our evaluation shows that nearly all agents mitigate risks after observing them (react), and many prepare for such risks before their appearance (anticipate). For this evaluation, we apply traditional causal effect inference and causal random forest methods to explain agent behavior. The results highlight different risk management strategies among agents, others strategies that are common to agents, and overall encourage evaluating agent risk management abilities in other AI domains

Detecting Patient Health Trajectories Using a Full-Body Burn Physiology Model

A whole-body physiology model of inflammatory burn injury was used to train an algorithm to correctly detect patients’ states. The physiology model of a thermal injury takes the surface area of patient skin burned as an input to the model and responds to common treatments. This model is leveraged to build a database of patient physiology as a function of total body surface area burn, without treatment, over a 48-h window. Using this database, we train a model to determine patient injury status as a function of the available physiology data. The algorithm can group virtual patients into three distinct categories, corresponding to long term patient health. The results show that, given an initial virtual patient and injury, the algorithm can correctly determine the placement of that patient into the corresponding category, effectively classifying long term patient outcomes

Memory Matters: The Need to Improve Long-Term Memory in LLM-Agents

In this paper, we provide a review of the current efforts to develop LLM agents, which are autonomous agents that leverage large language models. We examine the memory management approaches used in these agents. One crucial aspect of these agents is their long-term memory, which is often implemented using vector databases. We describe how vector databases are utilized to store and retrieve information in LLM agents. Moreover we highlight open problems, such as the separation of different types of memories and the management of memory over the agent's lifetime. Lastly, we propose several topics for future research to address these challenges and further enhance the capabilities of LLM agents, including the use of metadata in procedural and semantic memory and the integration of external knowledge sources with vector databases