Técnicas de aprendizado de máquina para previsão de perdas severas em rochas carbonáticas de reservatórios do pré-sal / Machine learning techniques for predicting severe losses in carbonate rocks from pre-salt reservoirs

Este trabalho visa apresentar modelos de classificadores binários para auxiliar na determinação da ocorrência do fenômeno de perda de circulação na construção de poços submarinos do pré-sal da Bacia de Santos. O conhecimento prévio sobre a possibilidade de ocorrência do fenômeno, possibilita alocar sondas com a tecnologia adequada para a construção dos poços. Neste contexto, os sistemas de classificação baseados em aprendizado de máquina podem apoiar a tomada de decisão. Neste trabalho, são propostos classificadores baseados em algoritmos clássicos de aprendizado de máquina (Pedregosa, F. et al. 2011) e os resultados são apresentados utilizando a Área Sob a Curva ROC (AUC) como métrica

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Otimização de alternativas para o desenvolvimento de campos de petróleo Selection of alternatives for the development of oil fields

Este artigo apresenta um sistema de suporte à decisão para a otimização de alternativas de desenvolvimento de campos de petróleo. O desenvolvimento de um campo de petróleo consiste na escolha de uma alternativa para a explotação de um reservatório petrolífero, conhecido e delimitado, que permita produzir a maior quantidade de hidrocarboneto possível, dentro dos limites físicos e econômicos existentes, isto é, maximizar o valor presente líquido (VPL). O VPL é calculado a partir da produção de óleo, a qual é obtida com o uso de um simulador de reservatório. Cada execução do simulador pode demorar desde alguns segundos até várias horas, dependendo da complexidade do reservatório modelado. Isto reduz o número de alternativas que podem ser geradas e avaliadas pelo especialista na busca da melhor solução. Deste modo, o objetivo deste trabalho é propor e avaliar um sistema inteligente de otimização que emprega: algoritmos genéticos (AGs), algoritmos culturais (ACs) e coevolução para a busca de uma alternativa de desenvolvimento ótima; e um ambiente de computação paralela para a simulação de reservatório e cálculo do VPL das alternativas. O sistema resultante permite que o especialista obtenha, em tempo hábil, a alternativa ótima (ou quase-ótima) para o desenvolvimento de um campo de petróleo conhecido. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de casos apresentados demonstram que o sistema proposto, baseado em técnicas inteligentes, obtém boas alternativas de desenvolvimento de campos petrolíferos com uma grande redução do tempo computacional, redução esta obtida a partir do aproveitamento do poder computacional de um ambiente de computação paralela e do aproveitamento de conhecimento do especialista, por meio das sementes iniciais.<br>This paper presents an optimization system for the development of petroleum fields. Developing a petroleum field consists of choosing an alternative exploitation of an already known and delimited petroleum reservoir allowing the maximum hydrocarbon production within the physical and economical limitations i.e., maximizing the net present value (NPV). The net present value is calculated according to the oil production, which is obtained with the use of a reservoir simulator. Each reservoir simulation can take from few seconds to several hours, depending on the complexity of the reservoir being modeled. This reduces the total number of configurations that can be generated and evaluated by the user in search for the best solution. Therefore, this work proposes and evaluates a new intelligent, optimization system that employs genetic algorithms (GA), cultural algorithms (CA), and co-evolution in order to search for an optimal development alternative in a parallel computing environment for reservoir simulations and NPV calculation. The proposed system provides the user, in a reasonable time, with the optimum (or sub-optimum) configuration for the development of the petroleum field. The results obtained in the case studies demonstrate that the proposed system, based on intelligent techniques, enable good configurations for the development of petroleum fields with a great reduction in computational time. This reduction is obtained from the computational power of the parallel computing environment and from the expert knowledge, through the initial configuration of the optimizing system (initial seed)

Reduction of cardiac imaging tests during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Italy. Findings from the IAEA Non-invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Background: In early 2020, COVID-19 massively hit Italy, earlier and harder than any other European country. This caused a series of strict containment measures, aimed at blocking the spread of the pandemic. Healthcare delivery was also affected when resources were diverted towards care of COVID-19 patients, including intensive care wards. Aim of the study: The aim is assessing the impact of COVID-19 on cardiac imaging in Italy, compare to the Rest of Europe (RoE) and the World (RoW). Methods: A global survey was conducted in May–June 2020 worldwide, through a questionnaire distributed online. The survey covered three periods: March and April 2020, and March 2019. Data from 52 Italian centres, a subset of the 909 participating centres from 108 countries, were analyzed. Results: In Italy, volumes decreased by 67% in March 2020, compared to March 2019, as opposed to a significantly lower decrease (p &lt; 0.001) in RoE and RoW (41% and 40%, respectively). A further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 summed up to 76% for the North, 77% for the Centre and 86% for the South. When compared to the RoE and RoW, this further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 in Italy was significantly less (p = 0.005), most likely reflecting the earlier effects of the containment measures in Italy, taken earlier than anywhere else in the West. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic massively hit Italy and caused a disruption of healthcare services, including cardiac imaging studies. This raises concern about the medium- and long-term consequences for the high number of patients who were denied timely diagnoses and the subsequent lifesaving therapies and procedures

International Impact of COVID-19 on the Diagnosis of Heart Disease

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has adversely affected diagnosis and treatment of noncommunicable diseases. Its effects on delivery of diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death worldwide, have not been quantified. Objectives: The study sought to assess COVID-19's impact on global cardiovascular diagnostic procedural volumes and safety practices. Methods: The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a worldwide survey assessing alterations in cardiovascular procedure volumes and safety practices resulting from COVID-19. Noninvasive and invasive cardiac testing volumes were obtained from participating sites for March and April 2020 and compared with those from March 2019. Availability of personal protective equipment and pandemic-related testing practice changes were ascertained. Results: Surveys were submitted from 909 inpatient and outpatient centers performing cardiac diagnostic procedures, in 108 countries. Procedure volumes decreased 42% from March 2019 to March 2020, and 64% from March 2019 to April 2020. Transthoracic echocardiography decreased by 59%, transesophageal echocardiography 76%, and stress tests 78%, which varied between stress modalities. Coronary angiography (invasive or computed tomography) decreased 55% (p &lt; 0.001 for each procedure). In multivariable regression, significantly greater reduction in procedures occurred for centers in countries with lower gross domestic product. Location in a low-income and lower–middle-income country was associated with an additional 22% reduction in cardiac procedures and less availability of personal protective equipment and telehealth. Conclusions: COVID-19 was associated with a significant and abrupt reduction in cardiovascular diagnostic testing across the globe, especially affecting the world's economically challenged. Further study of cardiovascular outcomes and COVID-19–related changes in care delivery is warranted

Impact of COVID-19 on Diagnostic Cardiac Procedural Volume in Oceania: The IAEA Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Objectives: The INCAPS COVID Oceania study aimed to assess the impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiac procedure volume provided in the Oceania region. Methods: A retrospective survey was performed comparing procedure volumes within March 2019 (pre-COVID-19) with April 2020 (during first wave of COVID-19 pandemic). Sixty-three (63) health care facilities within Oceania that perform cardiac diagnostic procedures were surveyed, including a mixture of metropolitan and regional, hospital and outpatient, public and private sites, and 846 facilities outside of Oceania. The percentage change in procedure volume was measured between March 2019 and April 2020, compared by test type and by facility. Results: In Oceania, the total cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was reduced by 52.2% from March 2019 to April 2020, compared to a reduction of 75.9% seen in the rest of the world (p&lt;0.001). Within Oceania sites, this reduction varied significantly between procedure types, but not between types of health care facility. All procedure types (other than stress cardiac magnetic resonance [CMR] and positron emission tomography [PET]) saw significant reductions in volume over this time period (p&lt;0.001). In Oceania, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) decreased by 51.6%, transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) by 74.0%, and stress tests by 65% overall, which was more pronounced for stress electrocardiograph (ECG) (81.8%) and stress echocardiography (76.7%) compared to stress single-photon emission computerised tomography (SPECT) (44.3%). Invasive coronary angiography decreased by 36.7% in Oceania. Conclusion: A significant reduction in cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was seen across all facility types in Oceania and was likely a function of recommendations from cardiac societies and directives from government to minimise spread of COVID-19 amongst patients and staff. Longer term evaluation is important to assess for negative patient outcomes which may relate to deferral of usual models of care within cardiology