479 research outputs found
Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions
Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for
incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit
models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit
likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't
yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques
are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods).
We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit
model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial
expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible
family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response
coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly
convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the
coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by
positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma
distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of
the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate
heterogeneity distribution assumed.
Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity
calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for
summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are
hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of
our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative
Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20
Undergraduate medical textbooks do not provide adequate information on intravenous fluid therapy: a systematic survey and suggestions for improvement
<b>Background</b><p></p>
Inappropriate prescribing of intravenous (IV) fluid, particularly 0.9% sodium chloride, causes post-operative complications. Fluid prescription is often left to junior medical staff and is frequently poorly managed. One reason for poor intravenous fluid prescribing practices could be inadequate coverage of this topic in the textbooks that are used.<p></p>
<b>Methods</b><p></p>
We formulated a comprehensive set of topics, related to important common clinical situations involving IV fluid therapy, (routine fluid replacement, fluid loss, fluids overload) to assess the adequacy of textbooks in common use. We assessed 29 medical textbooks widely available to students in the UK, scoring the presence of information provided by each book on each of the topics. The scores indicated how fully the topics were considered: not at all, partly, and adequately. No attempt was made to judge the quality of the information, because there is no consensus on these topics.<p></p>
<b>Results</b><p></p>
The maximum score that a book could achieve was 52. Three of the topics we chose were not considered by any of the books. Discounting these topics as ātoo esotericā, the maximum possible score became 46. One textbook gained a score of 45, but the general score was poor (median 11, quartiles 4, 21). In particular, coverage of routine postoperative management was inadequate.<p></p>
<b>Conclusions</b><p></p>
Textbooks for undergraduates cover the topic of intravenous therapy badly, which may partly explain the poor knowledge and performance of junior doctors in this important field. Systematic revision of current textbooks might improve knowledge and practice by junior doctors. Careful definition of the remit and content of textbooks should be applied more widely to ensure quality and āfitness for purposeā, and avoid omission of vital knowledge
A systematic review of home-based dietary interventions during radiation therapy for cancer.
Purpose: Our objectives are to assess (1) the acceptability and feasibility of dietary interventions for patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT), and (2) the impact of dietary interventions on patient reported outcomes, toxicities, and survival.
Methods: A PICOS/PRISMA/MOOSE selection protocol was used to include articles that evaluate adding dietary interventions to patients receiving RT. Acceptability was defined as (# accepting/# approached); feasibility was (# completing/# approached). Patient-reported outcomes were reported based on questionnaires used in each study and survival was measured from the date of diagnosis until death in each study. Level of evidence was assessed with Center for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) criteria.
Results: Sixteen articles were included; among these, 2027 patients were approached regarding the intervention, and 1661 accepted (81.9%); of these, 1543 (92.9%) completed the prescribed dietāÆ+āÆRT course. The most common cancers included were gynecological, head and neck, and gastrointestinal. For patients with pelvic cancers, a high fiber diet may improve diarrhea (CEBM level 1b). Enteral nutrition formula, including formulas with proteins such as L-arginine, lipids such as eicosapentaenoic acids, glucids, and ribonucleotides, may help prevent of malnutrition in head and neck cancer patients undergoing RT (level 2b). Vitamin C and Ī²-carotene may reduce of xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients; however, the studies evaluating these vitamins included vitamin E, which increases all-cause mortality (level 2b). No dietary intervention for cancer patients receiving RT has been shown to improve survival.
Conclusion: There are limited data to support safe and efficacious use of dietary interventions during RT
Choice Models in Marketing: Economic Assumptions, Challenges and Trends
Direct utility models of consumer choice are reviewed and developed for understanding consumer preferences. We begin with a review of statistical models of choice, posing a series of modeling challenges that are resolved by considering economic foundations based on con-strained utility maximization. Direct utility models differ from other choice models by directly modeling the consumer utility function used to derive the likelihood of the data through Kuhn-Tucker con-ditions. Recent advances in Bayesian estimation make the estimation of these models computationally feasible, offering advantages in model interpretation over models based on indirect utility, and descriptive models that tend to be highly parameterized. Future trends are dis-cussed in terms of the antecedents and enhancements of utility function specification.
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A practitioner's guide to Bayesian estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models
This paper provides a step-by-step guide to estimating infinite horizon discrete choice dynamic programming (DDP) models using a new Bayesian estimation algorithm (Imai et al., Econometrica 77:1865ā1899, 2009a) (IJC). In the conventional nested fixed point algorithm, most of the information obtained in the past iterations remains unused in the current iteration. In contrast, the IJC algorithm extensively uses the computational results obtained from the past iterations to help solve the DDP model at the current iterated parameter values. Consequently, it has the potential to significantly alleviate the computational burden of estimating DDP models. To illustrate this new estimation method, we use a simple dynamic store choice model where stores offer āfrequent-buyerā type rewards programs. Our Monte Carlo results demonstrate that the IJC method is able to recover the true parameter values of this model quite precisely. We also show that the IJC method could reduce the estimation time significantly when estimating DDP models with unobserved heterogeneity, especially when the discount factor is close to 1
Interdependent Infrastructure as Linked Social, Ecological, and Technological Systems (SETSs) to Address Lockāin and Enhance Resilience
Traditional infrastructure adaptation to extreme weather events (and now climate change) has typically been technoācentric and heavily grounded in robustnessāthe capacity to prevent or minimize disruptions via a riskābased approach that emphasizes control, armoring, and strengthening (e.g., raising the height of levees). However, climate and nonclimate challenges facing infrastructure are not purely technological. Ecological and social systems also warrant consideration to manage issues of overconfidence, inflexibility, interdependence, and resource utilizationāamong others. As a result, technoācentric adaptation strategies can result in unwanted tradeoffs, unintended consequences, and underaddressed vulnerabilities. Technoācentric strategies that lockāin today\u27s infrastructure systems to vulnerable future design, management, and regulatory practices may be particularly problematic by exacerbating these ecological and social issues rather than ameliorating them. Given these challenges, we develop a conceptual model and infrastructure adaptation case studies to argue the following: (1) infrastructure systems are not simply technological and should be understood as complex and interconnected social, ecological, and technological systems (SETSs); (2) infrastructure challenges, like lockāin, stem from SETS interactions that are often overlooked and underappreciated; (3) framing infrastructure with a SETS lens can help identify and prevent maladaptive issues like lockāin; and (4) a SETS lens can also highlight effective infrastructure adaptation strategies that may not traditionally be considered. Ultimately, we find that treating infrastructure as SETS shows promise for increasing the adaptive capacity of infrastructure systems by highlighting how lockāin and vulnerabilities evolve and how multidisciplinary strategies can be deployed to address these challenges by broadening the options for adaptation
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