Comparison of climate model results with European vegetation and permafrost during oxygen isotope stage three.

Oxygen isotope stage 3 (OIS3), an interstade between approximately 60,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., presents an ideal opportunity to compare high-resolution climate simulations with the geologic record. To facilitate this comparison, the results of a mesoscale climate model (RegCM2) embedded in the GENESIS GCM are utilized to drive a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5). The BIOME output is then compared with OIS3 compilations derived from pollen. The simulated biomes agree well with the pollen-based biomes in southern Europe; however, disagreements occur in the northern part of the domain. The most striking mismatch involves the distribution of tundra. The models fail to have tundra extend to its observed position as far south as 50°N in central Europe during OIS3. The model also fails to have permafrost extend southward to its observed position between 50°N and 55°N in western Europe during OIS3. A variety of sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate these mismatches. These experiments demonstrate the importance of annual and summer temperatures and the length of the winter season in creating improved matches between the model results and the inferred distributions of vegetation and permafrost in northern Europe

Global biome patterns of the Middle and Late Pleistocene

Our primary aim was to assess the hypothesis that distinctive features of the patterns of vegetation change during successive Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles reflect climatic differences arising from forcing differences. We addressed this hypothesis using 207 half-degree resolution global biome pattern simulations, for time slices between 800 ka and 2 ka, made using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model. Simulations were driven using ice-core atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Earth’s obliquity, and outputs from a pre-industrial and 206 palaeoclimate experiments; four additional simulations were driven using projected future CO2 concentrations. Climate experiments were run using HadCM3. Using a rule-based approach, above-ground biomass and leaf area index of LPJ-GUESS plant functional types were used to infer each grid cell’s biome. The hypothesis is supported by the palaeobiome simulations. To enable comparisons with the climatic forcing, multivariate analyses were performed of global vegetation pattern dissimilarities between simulations. Results showed generally similar responses to glacial–interglacial climatic variations during each cycle, although no two interglacials or glacials had identical biome patterns. Atmospheric CO2 concentration was the strongest driver of the dissimilarity patterns. Dissimilarities relative to the time slice with the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentration show the log–linear relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration expected of an index of ecocarbon sensitivity. For each simulation, extent and total above-ground biomass of each biome were calculated globally and for three longitudinal segments corresponding to the major continental regions. Mean and minimum past extents of forest biomes, notably Temperate Summergreen Forest, in the three major continental regions strongly parallel relative tree diversities, hence supporting the hypothesis that past biome extents played an important role in determining present diversity. Albeit that they reflect the climatic consequences only of the faster Earth system components, simulated potential future biome patterns are unlike any during the past 800 ky, and likely will continue to change markedly for millennia if projected CO2 concentrations are realised

Initial Mediterranean response to major climate reorganization during the last interglacial-glacial transition

Millennial-scale Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) variability at northern high latitudes has influenced climatic and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean during the last glacial period. There is evidence that the hemispheric transmission of the DO variability occurred at the end of DO event 25; however, the exact timing and the trigger that activated the environmental response in the Mediterranean remains incompletely understood. Here, we provide evidence that the clear millennial-scale teleconnection between Greenland and the Mediterranean started at ∼111.4 ka BP and was initiated by a sub-millennial scale cooling in Greenland (GI-25b). High-resolution sediment proxies and the pollen record of Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON), Italy, reflect climatic instability during the last millennium of the last interglacial, which was characterised by a first and short cooling episode (MON 1) at 111.44 ± 0.69 ka BP, coinciding with the Greenland cold sub-event GI-25b in duration and timing (within dating uncertainties). MON and Greenland (NorthGRIP ice core) also agree in recording a subsequent warm rebound phase that abruptly culminated in the stadial MON 2/GS-25, marking the transition into the last glacial period. Our results show that the GI-25b triggered an early environmental response at MON to centennial-scale climate change in Greenland as a prelude to the millennial-scale teleconnection that was maintained during the glacial period

Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome

Aim Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome. Location Global. Taxon Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates. Methods Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome. Results Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Apart from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46%–66% of global ice-free land, and 34%–52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change. Main conclusions Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using global biome patterns inferred from simulations made using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model, we show that a substantial fraction of areas that are simulated to have supported the same biome throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle are projected to experience biome change as a consequence of 21st century climatic changes. We further show that, with the exception of some desert areas, areas of the highest past biome constancy correspond to areas of the highest terrestrial vertebrate diversity. As a result, the projected biome changes are likely to have disproportionately large negative impacts upon global biodiversity

Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems