Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes

Analysis of Lauffenburger-Kennedy bacterial infection model for tissue inflammation dynamics

In this paper, we analyze a mathematical model for an inflammatory response to bacterial infection of homogeneous tissues. Specifically, we provide a detailed analysis of the Lauffenburger-Kennedy bacterial infection model and show that the model exhibits three possible equilibria corresponding to a bacteria-free and two endemic compromised steady states. Asymptotic results of the steady states along with the existences of saddle-node connection Hopf bifurcations are shown under certain conditions of the parameters. Within the biological ranges of the parameter values, we observe that the system can exhibit both forward and backward bifurcation. In addition, in both cases, the larger compromise bacterial infection steady state can either approach an equilibrium or can oscillate around it via Hopf bifurcation depending on the value of the ratio of leukocyte mortality to phagocytosis rates. Numerical results are used to provide illustrative examples of these different dynamical patterns observed in the model

Mathematical evolutionary epidemiology: limited epitopes, evolution of strain structures and age-specificity

We investigate the biological constraints determined by the complex relationships between ecological and immunological processes of host-pathogen interactions, with emphasis on influenza viruses in human, which are responsible for a number of pandemics in the last 150 years. We begin by discussing prolegomenous reviews of historical perspectives on the use of theoretical modelling as a complementary tool in public health and epidemiology, current biological background motivating the objective of the thesis, and derivations of mathematical models of multi-locus-allele systems for infectious diseases with co-circulating serotypes. We provide detailed analysis of the multi-locus-allele model and its age-specific extension. In particular, we establish the necessary conditions for the local asymptotic stability of the steady states and the existence of oscillatory behaviours. For the age-structured model, results on the existence of a mild solution and stability conditions are presented. Numerical studies of various strain spaces show that the dynamic features are preserved. Specifically, we demonstrate that discrete antigenic forms of pathogens can exhibit three distinct dynamic features, where antigenic variants (i) fully self-organize and co-exist with no strain structure (NSS), (ii) sort themselves into discrete strain structure (DSS) with non-overlapping or minimally overlapping clusters under the principle of competitive exclusion, or (iii) exhibit cyclical strain structure (CSS) where dominant antigenic types are cyclically replaced with sharp epidemics dominated by (1) a single strain dominance with irregular emergence and re-emergence of certain pathogenic forms, (2) ordered alternating appearance of a single antigenic type in periodic or quasi-periodic form similar to periodic travelling waves, (3) erratic appearance and disappearance of synchrony between discrete antigenic types, and (4) phase-synchronization with uncorrelated amplitudes. These analyses allow us to gain insight into the age-specific immunological profile in order to untangle the effects of strain structures as captured by the clustering behaviours, and to provide public health implications. The age-structured model can be used to investigate the effect of age-specific targeting for public health purposes.Readers of this thesis are advised to consult the derived publications for the most recent up-to-date versions of the some of the results

Allo-Hemodialysis, a Novel Dialytic Treatment Option for Patients with Kidney Failure: Outcomes of Mathematical Modelling, Prototyping, and <i>Ex Vivo</i> Testing

It has been estimated that in 2010, over two million patients with end-stage kidney disease may have faced premature death due to a lack of access to affordable renal replacement therapy, mostly dialysis. To address this shortfall in dialytic kidney replacement therapy, we propose a novel, cost-effective, and low-complexity hemodialysis method called allo-hemodialysis (alloHD). With alloHD, instead of conventional hemodialysis, the blood of a patient with kidney failure flows through the dialyzer’s dialysate compartment counter-currently to the blood of a healthy subject (referred to as a “buddy”) flowing through the blood compartment. Along the concentration and hydrostatic pressure gradients, uremic solutes and excess fluid are transferred from the patient to the buddy and subsequently excreted by the healthy kidneys of the buddy. We developed a mathematical model of alloHD to systematically explore dialysis adequacy in terms of weekly standard urea Kt/V. We showed that in the case of an anuric child (20 kg), four 4 h alloHD sessions are sufficient to attain a weekly standard Kt/V of >2.0. In the case of an anuric adult patient (70 kg), six 4 h alloHD sessions are necessary. As a next step, we designed and built an alloHD machine prototype that comprises off-the-shelf components. We then used this prototype to perform ex vivo experiments to investigate the transport of solutes, including urea, creatinine, and protein-bound uremic retention products, and to quantitate the accuracy and precision of the machine’s ultrafiltration control. These experiments showed that alloHD performed as expected, encouraging future in vivo studies in animals with and without kidney failure