Ein Umschwung in den letzten Wochen des Landtagswahlkampfes: Befunde einer mehrwelligen Wiederholungsbefragung zur niedersächsischen Landtagswahl 2017

Die niedersächsische Landtagswahl im Oktober 2017 fand im Schatten der vorhergehenden Bundestagswahl statt. Vor dem Hintergrund der zeitlichen Nähe beider Wahlgänge untersucht dieser Aufsatz die Entwicklung bundes- und landesbezogener Einstellungen im Wahlkampfverlauf sowie deren Einfluss auf das Wählerverhalten in Niedersachsen. Eine mehrwellige Wiederholungsbefragung von 1.346 niedersächsischen Wahlberechtigten, die im Rahmen der German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) durchgeführt wurde, dient als Grundlage der Untersuchung. In quer- und längsschnittlichen Analysen wird gezeigt, dass eine bedeutende Minderheit der Befragten den Wahlentscheidungen auf der Landesebene ebenenspezifische Erwägungen zu Grunde legt. Landesbezogene Einstellungen waren einer von der Bundesebene weitgehend unabhängigen Wahlkampfdynamik unterworfen, die die Wahlabsichten des Elektorats beeinflusst zu haben scheinen. So konnte gerade die niedersächsische SPD die Popularität ihres Spitzenkandidaten in den letzten Wahlkampfwochen steigern und dadurch die CDU in einem Schlussspurt als stärkste Kraft ablösen

Vocational Education and Employment: Explaining Cohort Variations in Life Course Patterns

A stylized finding on returns to vocational education is that vocational compared to general education generates a differential life course pattern of employability: while vocational education guarantees smooth transitions into the labour market and thus generates initial advantages, these erode with increasing age, leading to late-life reversals in employment chances. We contribute to this research by assessing cohort variations in life-cycle patterns and distinguishing two explanations for late-life reversals in employment chances. The adaptability argument states that this phenomenon is due to the lower adaptability and occupational flexibility of those with vocational education. In contrast, the health argument states that vocational education leads to physically more demanding occupations, faster health deterioration, and, thus, lower employability in later life. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we employ non-parametric state probability analysis to assess cohort variations in employment patterns, and mediation analysis to assess how much of the late-life reversal of employment patterns is due to a faster health deterioration among the vocationally educated. Results show that the early life advantage of vocational education increases across cohorts. Furthermore, those with vocational education exhibit faster health deterioration, and a small part of the late-life employment disadvantage of this group works through lower levels of health after midlife

Feasibility of tomotherapy-based image-guided radiotherapy for small cell lung cancer

Background: To assess the tolerance of patients with small cell lung cancer undergoing chemoradiation with tomotherapy-based image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Materials and Methods: A retrospective review of the toxicity profile for nine patients with small cell lung cancer of the limited stage who underwent chemoradiation delivered with helical tomotherapy (HT) has been conducted. Results: Acute grade 3–4 hematologic and esophagitis toxicities developed in two and three patients respectively. One patient developed a pulmonary embolism during radiotherapy. Seven patients had weight loss ranging from 0 to 30 pounds (median: 4 pounds). Three patients had treatment breaks ranging from 2 to 12 days. At a median follow-up of 11 months (range: 2–24 months), no patients developed any radiation related toxicities such as grade 3–4 pneumonitis or other long-term complications. The median survival was estimated to be 15 months. There were two local recurrences, three mediastinal recurrences, and six distant metastases. Conclusion: Grade 3–4 toxicities remained significant during chemoradiation when radiation was delivered with tomotherapy-based IGRT. However, the absence of grade 3–4 pneumonitis is promising and the use of HT needs to be investigated in future prospective studies

Discovery of palladium, antimony, tellurium, iodine, and xenon isotopes

Currently, thirty-eight palladium, thirty-eight antimony, thirty-nine tellurium, thirty-eight iodine, and forty xenon isotopes have been observed and the discovery of these isotopes is discussed here. For each isotope a brief synopsis of the first refereed publication, including the production and identification method, is presented.Comment: to be published in At. Data Nucl. Data Table

Multinomial VaR Backtests : A simple implicit approach to backtesting expected shortfall

Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, capital charges are based on the coherent Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measure, which is sensitive to tail risk. We argue that backtesting of the forecasting models used to derive ES can be based on a multinomial test of Value-at-Risk (VaR) exceptions at several levels. Using simulation experiments with heavy-tailed distributions and GARCH volatility models, we design a statistical procedure to show that at least four VaR levels are required to obtain tests for misspecified trading book models that are more powerful than single-level (or even two-level) binomial exception tests. A traffic-light system for model approval is proposed and illustrated with three real-data examples spanning the 2008 financial crisis

A Summary of the Inaugural WHO Classification of Pediatric Tumors: Transitioning from the Optical into the Molecular Era.

Pediatric tumors are uncommon, yet are the leading cause of cancer-related death in childhood. Tumor types, molecular characteristics, and pathogenesis are unique, often originating from a single genetic driver event. The specific diagnostic challenges of childhood tumors led to the development of the first World Health Organization (WHO) Classification of Pediatric Tumors. The classification is rooted in a multilayered approach, incorporating morphology, IHC, and molecular characteristics. The volume is organized according to organ sites and provides a single, state-of-the-art compendium of pediatric tumor types. A special emphasis was placed on blastomas, which variably recapitulate the morphologic maturation of organs from which they originate. SIGNIFICANCE: In this review, we briefly summarize the main features and updates of each chapter of the inaugural WHO Classification of Pediatric Tumors, including its rapid transition from a mostly microscopic into a molecularly driven classification systematically taking recent discoveries in pediatric tumor genomics into account

Dairy consumption and cardiometabolic diseases: systematic review and updated meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

Purpose of Review Dairy products contain both beneficial and harmful nutrients in relation to cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we provide the latest scientific evidence regarding the relationship between dairy products and cardiometabolic diseases by reviewing the literature and updating meta-analyses of observational studies. Recent Findings We updated our previous meta-analyses of cohort studies on type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke with nine studies and confirmed previous results. Total dairy and low-fat dairy (per 200 g/d) were inversely associated with a 3–4% lower risk of diabetes. Yogurt was non-linearly inversely associatedwith diabetes (RR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.83–0.90 at 80 g/ d). Total dairy and milk were not associated with CHD (RR~1.0). An increment of 200 g of daily milk intake was associated with an 8% lower risk of stroke. Summary The latest scientific evidence confirmed neutral or beneficial associations between dairy products and risk of cardiometabolic diseases