Legionella pneumonia cases over a five-year period: a descriptive, retrospective study of outcomes in a UK district hospital

As the recent outbreaks in Edinburgh and Camarthen, UK, have shown, Legionella pneumonia (LP) remains a significant public health problem, which is not only confined to those who have travelled abroad. In both outbreaks and sporadic cases, diagnosis can go unrecognised. We reviewed the demographics, comorbidities, diagnosis, treatment and clinical outcome of LP cases over five years in a district general hospital in northwest England. Over half of LP cases were UK acquired and ‘classic’ clinical features were common. Clinical criteria for diagnosing LP were confirmed, but few sputum samples were sent to reference laboratories, limiting further essential epidemiological mapping of UK cases. Following current UK community-acquired pneumonia guidance would have missed nearly one quarter of LP cases in our series, potentially leading to further morbidity and mortality

Estimating viral prevalence with data fusion for adaptive two-phase pooled sampling.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of efficient sampling strategies and statistical methods for monitoring infection prevalence, both in humans and in reservoir hosts. Pooled testing can be an efficient tool for learning pathogen prevalence in a population. Typically, pooled testing requires a second-phase retesting procedure to identify infected individuals, but when the goal is solely to learn prevalence in a population, such as a reservoir host, there are more efficient methods for allocating the second-phase samples.To estimate pathogen prevalence in a population, this manuscript presents an approach for data fusion with two-phased testing of pooled samples that allows more efficient estimation of prevalence with less samples than traditional methods. The first phase uses pooled samples to estimate the population prevalence and inform efficient strategies for the second phase. To combine information from both phases, we introduce a Bayesian data fusion procedure that combines pooled samples with individual samples for joint inferences about the population prevalence.Data fusion procedures result in more efficient estimation of prevalence than traditional procedures that only use individual samples or a single phase of pooled sampling.The manuscript presents guidance on implementing the first-phase and second-phase sampling plans using data fusion. Such methods can be used to assess the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts to humans, or to track pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 in populations

Requirements and process analysis for ports and waterways open BIM ISO standards development

Purpose Defining building information modelling (BIM) standards for the infrastructure domain is a central issue to the successful implementation of BIM in civil engineering domains. To this end, this paper aims to present a requirements and process analysis for the ports and waterways domain to address the lack of BIM standards development, using the information delivery manual (IDM) approach and the ethos of openBIM standards. Design/methodology/approach This research uses the IDM approach. This involves the definition of use cases, process maps, exchange scenarios and subsequent exchange requirements. All these developments were sourced and validated by a series of international industry consultations. Findings The paper identifies 30 domain relevant use cases collated from existing sources and new cases. An overview and detailed ports and waterways process map (defining actors, activities and data exchanges). The process maps highlighted 38 exchange scenarios between various activities. Various exchange requirements were defined and are discussed in the context of the required information exchange model and the extensions required to fulfil the needs of the domain. The analysis provides the core information for the next steps of development for a substantial extension to the Industry Foundation Classes and the supporting data dictionary standards. Research limitations/implications Because of the international scope of the research, the outcomes can be applied by any stakeholders in the domain of ports and waterways. Therefore, some variation is expected at a national and organizational level. This research has the potential to accelerate the adoption of openBIM standards within the ports and waterways domain leading to increases in efficiency, collaborative working. Originality/value This paper reviews the requirements of an identified gap in the provision of openBIM standards relevant and applicable to the domain of ports and waterways

Delayed onset post-traumatic wound botulism

A 41-year-old man developed rapidly progressive cranial neuropathies and muscle weakness followed by respiratory failure, requiring ventilation support. On examination, there was marked bilateral ptosis and ophthalmoplegia with bulbar, neck and proximal upper limb weakness. He had a recent open left humeral fracture that eventually required amputation. Despite immunoglobulin therapy, his progressive weakness continued. Multiple investigation results were inconclusive. Eventually, botulinum type A toxin was found positive, by which time the therapeutic window for antitoxin had passed. He continued on supportive management and was treated for concomitant infections and nosocomial illnesses. He was subsequently weaned from respiratory support and has made a good neurological recovery

Biomarker Driven Antifungal Stewardship (BioDriveAFS) in acute leukaemia—a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to assess clinical and cost effectiveness: a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Acute leukaemias (AL) are life-threatening blood cancers that can be potentially cured with treatment involving myelosuppressive, multiagent, intensive chemotherapy (IC). However, such treatment is associated with a risk of serious infection, in particular invasive fungal infection (IFI) associated with prolonged neutropenia. Current practice guidelines recommend primary antifungal (AF) prophylaxis to be administered to high-risk patients to reduce IFI incidence. AFs are also used empirically to manage prolonged neutropenic fever. Current strategies lead to substantial overuse of AFs. Galactomannan (GM) and β-D-glucan (BG) biomarkers are also used to diagnose IFI. Combining both biomarkers may enhance the predictability of IFI compared to administering each test alone. Currently, no large-scale randomised controlled trial (RCT) has directly compared a biomarker-based diagnostic screening strategy without AF prophylaxis to AF prophylaxis (without systematic biomarker testing). METHODS: BioDriveAFS is a multicentre, parallel, two-arm RCT of 404 participants from UK NHS Haematology departments. Participants will be allocated on a 1:1 basis to receive either a biomarker-based antifungal stewardship (AFS) strategy, or a prophylactic AF strategy, which includes existing standard of care (SoC). The co-primary outcomes will be AF exposure in the 12-month post randomisation and the patient-reported EQ-5D-5L measured at 12-month post randomisation. Secondary outcomes will include total AF exposure, probable/proven IFI, survival (all-cause mortality and IFI mortality), IFI treatment outcome, AF-associated adverse effects/events/complications, resource use, episodes of neutropenic fever requiring hospital admission or outpatient management, AF resistance in fungi (non-invasive and invasive) and a Desirability of Outcome Ranking. The trial will have an internal pilot phase during the first 9 months. A mixed methods process evaluation will be integrated in parallel to the internal pilot phase and full trial, aiming to robustly assess how the intervention is delivered. Cost-effectiveness analysis will also be performed. DISCUSSION: The BioDriveAFS trial aims to further the knowledge of strategies that will safely optimise AF use through comparison of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a biomarker-led diagnostic strategy versus prophylactic AF to prevent and manage IFI within acute leukaemia. The evidence generated from the study will help inform global clinical practice and approaches within antifungal stewardship. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11633399. Registered 24/06/2022

Keeping children safe: a multicentre programme of research to increase the evidence base for preventing unintentional injuries in the home in the under-fives

Background: Unintentional injuries among 0- to 4-year-olds are a major public health problem incurring substantial NHS, individual and societal costs. However, evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions is lacking. Aim: To increase the evidence base for thermal injury, falls and poisoning prevention for the under-fives. Methods: Six work streams comprising five multicentre case–control studies assessing risk and protective factors, a study measuring quality of life and injury costs, national surveys of children’s centres, interviews with children’s centre staff and parents, a systematic review of barriers to, and facilitators of, prevention and systematic overviews, meta-analyses and decision analyses of home safety interventions. Evidence from these studies informed the design of an injury prevention briefing (IPB) for children’s centres for preventing fire-related injuries and implementation support (training and facilitation). This was evaluated by a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial comparing IPB and support (IPB+), IPB only (no support) and usual care. The primary outcome was parent-reported possession of a fire escape plan. Evidence from all work streams subsequently informed the design of an IPB for preventing thermal injuries, falls and poisoning. Results: Modifiable risk factors for falls, poisoning and scalds were found. Most injured children and their families incurred small to moderate health-care and non-health-care costs, with a few incurring more substantial costs. Meta-analyses and decision analyses found that home safety interventions increased the use of smoke alarms and stair gates, promoted safe hot tap water temperatures, fire escape planning and storage of medicines and household products, and reduced baby walker use. Generally, more intensive interventions were the most effective, but these were not always the most cost-effective interventions. Children’s centre and parental barriers to, and facilitators of, injury prevention were identified. Children’s centres were interested in preventing injuries, and believed that they could prevent them, but few had an evidence-based strategic approach and they needed support to develop this. The IPB was implemented by children’s centres in both intervention arms, with greater implementation in the IPB+ arm. Compared with usual care, more IPB+ arm families received advice on key safety messages, and more families in each intervention arm attended fire safety sessions. The intervention did not increase the prevalence of fire escape plans [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.20] but did increase the proportion of families reporting more fire escape behaviours (AOR IPB only vs. usual care 2.56, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.15). IPB-only families were less likely to report match play by children (AOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.94) and reported more bedtime fire safety routines (AOR for a 1-unit increase in the number of routines 1.59, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.31) than usual-care families. The IPB-only intervention was less costly and marginally more effective than usual care. The IPB+ intervention was more costly and marginally more effective than usual care. Limitations: Our case–control studies demonstrate associations between modifiable risk factors and injuries but not causality. Some injury cost estimates are imprecise because of small numbers. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were limited by the quality of the included studies, the small numbers of studies reporting outcomes and significant heterogeneity, partly explained by differences in interventions. Network meta-analysis (NMA) categorised interventions more finely, but some variation remained. Decision analyses are likely to underestimate cost-effectiveness for a number of reasons. IPB implementation varied between children’s centres. Greater implementation may have resulted in changes in more fire safety behaviours. Conclusions: Our studies provide new evidence about the effectiveness of, as well as economic evaluation of, home safety interventions. Evidence-based resources for preventing thermal injuries, falls and scalds were developed. Providing such resources to children’s centres increases their injury prevention activity and some parental safety behaviours. Future work: Further randomised controlled trials, meta-analyses and NMAs are needed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions. Further work is required to measure NHS, family and societal costs and utility decrements for childhood home injuries and to evaluate complex multicomponent interventions such as home safety schemes using a single analytical model. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65067450 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01452191. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 5, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Update on the BINGO 21cm intensity mapping experiment

1cm intensity mapping is a novel approach aimed at measuring the power spectrum of density fluctuations and deducing cosmological information, notably from the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). We give an update on the progress of BAO from Integrated Neutral Gas Observations (BINGO) which is a single dish intensity mapping project. First we explain the basic ideas behind intensity mapping concept before updating the instrument design for BINGO. We also outline the survey we plan to make and its projected science output including estimates of cosmological parameters

Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world’s largest fish, the whale shark

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Womersley, F. C., Humphries, N. E., Queiroz, N., Vedor, M., da Costa, I., Furtado, M., Tyminski, J. P., Abrantes, K., Araujo, G., Bach, S. S., Barnett, A., Berumen, M. L., Bessudo Lion, S., Braun, C. D., Clingham, E., Cochran, J. E. M., de la Parra, R., Diamant, S., Dove, A. D. M., Dudgeon, C. L., Erdmann, M. V., Espinoza, E., Fitzpatrick, R., González Cano, J., Green, J. R., Guzman, H. M., Hardenstine, R., Hasan, A., Hazin, F. H. V., Hearn, A. R., Hueter, R. E., Jaidah, M. Y., Labaja, J., Ladinol, F., Macena, B. C. L., Morris Jr., J. J., Norman, B. M., Peñaherrera-Palmav, C., Pierce, S. J., Quintero, L. M., Ramırez-Macías, D., Reynolds, S. D., Richardson, A. J., Robinson, D. P., Rohner, C. A., Rowat, D. R. L., Sheaves, M., Shivji, M. S., Sianipar, A. B., Skomal, G. B., Soler, G., Syakurachman, I., Thorrold, S. R., Webb, D. H., Wetherbee, B. M., White, T. D., Clavelle, T., Kroodsma, D. A., Thums, M., Ferreira, L. C., Meekan, M. G., Arrowsmith, L. M., Lester, E. K., Meyers, M. M., Peel, L. R., Sequeira, A. M. M., Eguıluz, V. M., Duarte, C. M., & Sims, D. W. Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world’s largest fish, the whale shark. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(20), (2022): e2117440119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117440119.Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks’ horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (>300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial “cryptic” lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.Funding for data analysis was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP PhD Studentship to F.C.W. Additional funding for data analysis was provided by NERC Discovery Science (NE/R00997/X/1) and the European Research Council (ERC-AdG-2019 883583 OCEAN DEOXYFISH) to D.W.S., Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) under PTDC/BIA/28855/2017 and COMPETE POCI-01–0145-FEDER-028855, and MARINFO–NORTE-01–0145-FEDER-000031 (funded by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Program [NORTE2020] under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund–ERDF) to N.Q. FCT also supported N.Q. (CEECIND/02857/2018) and M.V. (PTDC/BIA-COM/28855/2017). D.W.S. was supported by a Marine Biological Association Senior Research Fellowship. All tagging procedures were approved by institutional ethical review bodies and complied with all relevant ethical regulations in the jurisdictions in which they were performed. Details for individual research teams are given in SI Appendix, section 8. Full acknowledgments for tagging and field research are given in SI Appendix, section 7. This research is part of the Global Shark Movement Project (https://www.globalsharkmovement.org)

The evolution of host defence to parasitism in fluctuating environments

Given rapidly changing environments, it is important for us to understand how the evolution of host defence responds to fluctuating environments. Here we present the first theoretical study of evolution of host resistance to parasitism in a classic epidemiological model where the host birth rate varies seasonally. We show that this form of seasonality has clear qualitative and quantitative impacts on the evolution of resistance. When the host can recover from infection, it evolves a lower level of defence when the amplitude is high. However, when recovery is absent, the host increases its defence for higher amplitudes. Between these different behaviours we find a region of parameter space that allows evolutionary bistability. When this occurs, the level of defence the host evolves depends on initial conditions, and in some cases a switch between attractors can lead to different periods in the population dynamics at each of the evolutionary stable strategies. Crucially, we find that evolutionary behaviour found in a constant environment for this model doesn’t always hold for hosts with highly variable birth rates. Hence we argue that seasonality must be taken into account if we want to make predictions about evolutionary trends in real-world host-parasite systems