MEASURING CONTAGION WITH A BAYESIAN TIME-VARYING COEFFICIENT MODEL

We propose to use a time-varying coefficient model to measure contagion. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables. It requires knowledge of the source of the crisis but not its timing. The estimation procedure is Bayesian and is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We asses the performance of the proposed measure both with simulated and actual data.Contagion, Gibbs sampling, heteroskedasticity, omitted variable

Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model

JEL Classification: C11, C15, F41, F42, G15Contagion, Gibbs sampling, Heteroskedasticity, Omitted variable bias, Time-varying coefficient models

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey's IMF-Supported Program

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of disinflation credibility and applies it to the IMF-supported disinflation program in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. This measure relies only on the consumer price index and can thus be easily applied in countries in which asset prices and survey inflation expectations are not available or reliable. The application to Turkey's shows that it is less volatile and hence more reliable than a survey-expectation based measure.

Aid, Exports, and Growth: A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis

The available evidence on the effects of aid on growth is notoriously mixed. We use a novel empirical methodology, a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregression model identified through factor analysis, to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a "global" aid shock (the common component of individual country aid-to-GDP ratios). We find that the estimated cumulative resposive of exports and per capita GDP growth to a global aid shock are strongly positively correlated, and both responses are inversely related to exchange rate overvaluation measures. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, we also find that, in countries with less overvalued real exchange rates, exports and per capita GDP growth respond positively to a global aid shock. This evidence suggests that preventing exchange rate overvaluations may allow aid-receiving countries to avoid the Dutch disease.Aid, Common factors, Dutch Disease, Growth Panel VARs, Exchange rate overvaluation

Estimating VARs with Long Heterogeneous Panels

No abstract.

Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in China’s domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances.Fiscal stimulus, Financial crisis

The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment

This paper explores the valuation channel of external adjustment in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with international equity trading. The theoretical model we set up matches key moments of the data for the United States at business cycle frequency at least as well as standard models of international real business cycles (RBCs). In our theoretical analysis, we find that two-asset trading is necessary for a valuation channel of external adjustment to emerge. However, other features of the economy, such as on the nature of the shock that generates the external imbalance and other features of the economy – the extent of nominal rigidity and the size of finacial frictions – determine the magnitude and significance of this channel of adjustment. The relative importance of the valuation channel is larger the higher the degree of nominal rigidity and the higher finacial intermediation costs. Monetary policy shocks have no valuation effects with flexible prices and trade only in equity. Specifying the theoretical model with net foreign assets different from zero in necessary to start matching satisfactorily empirical moments of changes in the US net foreign asset position.External adjustment, Portfolio Models, Valuation Channel, SDGE Models

The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment

Ongoing international financial integration has greatly increased foreign asset holdings across countries, enhancing the scope for a "valuation channel" of external adjustment (i.e., the changes in a country's net foreign asset position due to exchange rate and asset price changes). We examine this channel of adjustment in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international equity trading in incomplete asset markets. We show that the risk-sharing properties of international equity trading are tied to the distribution of income between labor income and profits when equities are defined as claims to firm profits in a production economy. For a given level of international financial integration (measured by the size of gross foreign asset positions), the quantitative importance of the valuation channel of external adjustment depends on features of the international transmission mechanism such as the size of financial frictions, substitutability across goods, and the persistence of shocks. Finally, moving from less to more international financial integration, risk sharing through asset markets increases, and valuation changes are larger, but their relative importance in net foreign asset dynamics is smaller.

Oil Shocks and External Balances

This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries’ external balance, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975– 2004. We explicitly take a multilateral and global perspective. In addition to the United States, the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of regional aggregates including oil-exporting economies and middle-income oil-importing economies. Our first result is that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance, and differs systematically between the United States and other oil importing countries. Second, using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the United States, but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and for the United States, but may amplify it for other oil importers.Oil prices; External Balances; Oil demand Shocks; Oil supply Shocks; International Financial Integration.

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical?

This paper investigates empirically the pass-through of money market interest rates to retail banking interest rates in Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and five European countries. Overall, Chile’s pass-through does not appear atypical. Based on a standard errorcorrection model, we find that, as in most countries considered, Chile’s measured pass-through is incomplete. But Chile’s pass-through is also faster than in many other countries considered and is comparable to that in the United States. While we find no significant evidence of asymmetry in Chile’s pass-through across states of the interest rate or monetary policy cycle, we do find some evidence of parameter instability, around the time of the Asian and Russian crises. However, we do not find evidence that the switch to a more flexible exchange rate regime in 1999 and the “nominalization” of Chile’s interest rate targets in 2001 have affected significantly the pass-through process.