Retail electricity price formation factors

Elektros sektorius yra svarbi nacionalinės ekonomikos dalis. Pagrindinis šio sektoriaus produktas yra elektra, kuri yra viešoji gėrybė, vartojama namų ūkiuose ir kituose sektoriuose. Straipsnio tikslas yra įvertinus ryšius tarp mažmeninės elektros kainos ir jos veiksnių 2002–2010 m. laikotarpiu, parengti rodiklių sistemą, kuri galėtų paaiškinti mažmeninės elektros kainos lygį ir leis numatyti elektros kainos vystymąsi vidutiniu laikotarpiu. Mažmeninė elektros kaina susideda iš keturių didelių komponentų – elektros gamybos kainos, elektros perdavimo ir paskirstymo paslaugų kainos, ir elektros tiekimo paslaugos kainos. Elektros gamybos, paskirstymo ir perdavimo paslaugų kainos sudaro didžiausią dalį mažmeninės elektros kainos struktūroje. Elektros gamybos kaina labiausiai įtakoja elektros kainos pokytį vartotojui. Tendencijų analizė parodė, kad elektros kaina Lietuvoje turi tendenciją didėti. Kelerius pastaruosius metus ji buvo mažiausia Europos Sąjungoje, tačiau tuo pat metu jos augimo tempai buvo didžiausi. Koreliacinės analizės rezultatai parodė, kad prie 10 proc. reikšmingumo lygio egzistuoja tiesioginis ryšys tarp elektros kainos namų ūkiui ir rodiklių: elektros gamybos kainos; elektros gamybos apimties šiluminėse elektrinės ir Kruonio hidroakumuliacinėje elektrinėje, vandens ir vėjo jėgainėse ir kitose elektrinėse; elektros importo ir eksporto apimčių; ir kt. Nustatyta, kad prie 10 proc. reikšmingumo lygio egzistuoja netiesioginis ryšys tarp elektros kainos namų ūkiui ir kainos ir kiekio elektros energijos, pagaminamos Ignalinos AE; populiacijos, lito ir rublio kurso.The developed system of retail electricity price formation factors is presented in this paper. It allows understanding retail electricity price formation process. Factors having impact on electricity cost, profit and electricity volume consumed are analyzed. Factors allowing explaining the volume of electricity consumed are grouped under the economic, social, climatic, technical-technological, political and demographical criteria. Analysis of Lithuanian retail electricity price is performed. Retail electricity price structure, its development in Lithuania is presented. Overview of regulating environment is done. The results of correlation analysis disclosed the positive and negative relationships between electricity price for household and 55 indicators. Three multiple linear regression equations, enabling to link electricity price for household and its factors into a single set, are prepared. The equations are assigned to: describe electricity price for household by macroeconomic factors and factors that impact on electricity production costs; assess the impact of changes of electricity production structure on electricity price for household; assess the impact of quantities and prices of electricity production factors and macroeconomic indicators on electricity price for household, as well impact of changes of electricity production structure on electricity price for household

Analysis of features of power market price: Lithuanian case

Generalized world experience and summary of scientific literature on the issue of power market price features have been presented in the paper; indicators for evaluation of these features have been offered as well and the analysis of price characteristics in Lithuanian power exchange has been performed. The following methods have been employed – scientific literature analysis and generalization and statistical analysis methods. The main features of power market price and factors influencing them have been determined in the theoretical part of the paper. Indicators which enable to evaluate the features of power market price have been proposed in the methodological part of the paper. The analysis has shown that power market price was volatile in Lithuania. In winter when thermal power plants operated in the market, power market price tended to increase, but its volatility decreased. In spring, when cheap import was available, power market price tended to reduce, but its volatility increased. Power market price was the most volatile and highest in summer. During this season price spikes often formed. Price spikes in summer took 2.64% of all time analyzed. Article in Lithuanian. Elektros energijos rinkos kainos savybių tyrimas: Lietuvos atvejis Santrauka. Straipsnyje apibendrinama pasaulinė patirtis ir susisteminama mokslinė literatūra elektros energijos rinkos kainos savybių problematika, pasiūlomi kainos savybių vertinimo rodikliai, atliekamas biržos kainos savybių tyrimas Lietuvos pavyzdžiu. Tikslui pasiekti taikomi du metodai – mokslinės literatūros sisteminimo ir statistinės analizės. Teorinėje darbo dalyje išskiriamos pagrindinės elektros energijos rinkos kainos savybės ir veiksniai, darantys įtakos savybių pasireiškimui. Metodinėje darbo dalyje pasiūlomi rodikliai, sudarantys galimybę įvertinti kainos kaitumą ir kainų smailių pasireiškimą. Atlikus empirinį tyrimą nustatyta, kad Lietuvoje elektros energijos kaina buvo kaiti. Žiemos laikotarpiu, kai prekybą rinkoje vykdė šiluminės elektrinės, kainos kaitumas mažėjo, tačiau vidutinė kaina didėjo. Pavasarį, esant galimybei importuoti elektros energiją pigiau, kainos kaitumas didėjo, o vidutinė kaina mažėjo. Kaičiausia ir didžiausia kaina buvo vasarą (variacijos koeficientas – 19,74 proc., standartinis nuokrypis – 32,50 LTL/MWh, vidutinis kainų lygis – 164,60 LTL/MWh), kurios metu dažniausiai susiformuodavo kainų smailės. Jos truko 2,64 proc. viso 2010–2011 m. rugsėjo mėn. laiko. Reikšminiai žodžiai: elektros energija, didmeninė rinka, kaina, aprašomoji statistika, kaitumas, kainų smailė

Peculiarities of economics recovery after Worldwide Economic Crisis in 2008-2009

Variation analysis of several main procyclic indicators (leading and coincident) was carried out in this article. The results of the analysis showed that the economies of Lithuania and the European Union are slowly recovering. The attempts of European countries to struggle against deep recession caused by the world economic crisis have led to a new - sovereign debt crisis. It manifested in increasing differences between government bond yields and premiums of Credit Default Swap (CDS) between PIIGS countries and other EU members, notably Germany. Accordingly to this, CDS was examined as the leading indicator of the economic cycle. During the period of the economic crisis, the government of Lithuania borrowed in international markets very expensively and the accumulated debt can become a heavy burden on the country's future economy. The situation of public finance in Lithuania was analyzed by adopting the mathematical model of Zamkov. The performed simulation showed that the debt of Lithuanian public sector will press the country for a long period of time

Lithuania exports in the framework of heckscher-ohlin international trade theory

The paper analyzes the Heckscher-Ohlin model’s fit to predict the Lithuania’s foreign trade flows based on the endowments of capital stock and labour in different exporting kinds of economic activities. Authors use correlation and regression analysis to identify the relationship between country’s exports/imports and capital-to-labour ratios. The results found are consistent with previous researches about Heckscher-Ohlin model being of low predictive power in its basic form. The model’s modifications of research & development, intangible assets and information society indicators inclusion increase the predictive power of the model, but since the improvements are not significant, authors conclude that further studies of comparison of Lithuania’s foreign trade partners’ endowments of capital and labour are needed to analyze in their relationship of exports and imports as analyzed bulk foreign trade data may have a bias of mixed patterns of trade with countries with substantially different production factor endowments

Assessment of performance efficiency of enterprises producing electricity in hydro and wind power plants

The system of indicators for assessment of performance efficiency of enterprises producing electricity in hydro and wind power plants is presented in this article. The financial relative indicators are taken from balance and profit (loss) sheets of analyzed enterprises. Three groups of financial relative indicators are calculated. They are as follows: profitability, turnover and solvency. The analysis of profitability showed that because of rapidly increasing costs, the profitability of enterprises producing electricity in hydro and wind power plants had been deteriorating in recent years and for some years had been negative. The analysis of solvency indicators represented that liability of enterprises and risk had increased and liquidity had decreased. Asset turnover indicators told that the efficiency of resources, which were used in activity, had reduced

Regression analysis of gross domestic product and its factors in Lithuania

The article includes a regressive analysis of the gross domestic product (GDP) and reveals the factors which influence it. The research includes the assessment of a relation between the Lithuanian GDP under the prices of the last year and its factors (land, work, capital, energetics and etc.) with regard to the data of 1995–2009. It was noticed that scientific literature contains many works which analyse the factors influencing the GDP and economic growth, however they usually analyse the influence of a concrete factor. Systemic researches where influences of various factors are combined are rare. A determined aim of the research is to make a regressive analysis of the GDP and factors which influence it (land, work, capital, energetics and etc.) of the period of 1995–2009. In order to implement the aim of the research, the methodology used for the evaluation of the relation between the GDP and influencing factors was described. Also, a review on the GDP growth and the use tendencies of agricultural area in use, work, the main capital, fuel and energy was made. Moreover, a regressive analysis with one and a few variables was made. In order to implement the tasks, the following methods were applied: analysis of scientific literature, quantitative analysis of chosen statistic data, and regressive analysis. It was determined that a high GDP level may be reached by decreasing the use of agricultural land and increasing the use of the main capital. During a multiple regressive analysis, it was noticed that all variables except for a variable of nuclear energy had positive influence to the GDP

Atsinaujinančios energijos vartojimo ir ekonomikos augimo priežastinių ryšių vertinimas Lietuvoje

Mokslininkai nustatė, kad energijos vartojimas lemia bendrųjų nacionalinių pajamų dydį. Nustačius šį ryšį sustiprėjo atsakomybė asmenų, kurie priima sprendimus, įgyvendinant energetikos ir aplinkosaugos politiką. Darbo tikslas – įvertinti priežastinius ryšius tarp atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių (AEI) bendrojo suvartojimo ir ekonomikos augimo (jį nusako Lietuvos realusis bendrasis vidaus produktas (BVP), apskaičiuotas praeitų metų kainomis) 1990–2009 m. Lietuvos ekonomika analizuojamu laikotarpiu plėtojosi netolygiai. Pasinaudojus M.Montvilaitės pateiktu ekonomikos plėtros skaidymu laike, buvo atlikta Lietuvos BVP ir jo veiksnių analizė. AEI suvartojimo apimtys po Lietuvos nepriklausomybės atgavimo buvo nedidelės, tačiau jos šalyje didėjo po 5,4 proc. kasmet. Verta pastebėti, kad 2001–2009 m. (išskyrus 2007 m.) Lietuva buvo grynoji AEI eksportuotoja. Atlikus laiko eilučių analizę, toliau darbe atliekami vienetinės šaknies, Johanseno kointegravimo, Grangerio priežastingumo testai. Remiantis atliktu tyrimu galima teigti, kad AEI yra svarbi Lietuvos energetikos sektoriaus ir šalies ekonomikos sudedamoji dalis. Tyrimų rezultatai rodo, kad AEI vartojimas yra realiajam BVP darantis įtaką veiksnys trumpuoju laikotarpiu. Tai įrodo, kad platesnis AEI panaudojimas galėtų prisidėti prie BVP apimties didėjimo. Teigiamas ryšys tarp nagrinėtų kintamųjų pastebėtas tik ekonomikai augant. Ekonomikai smunkant, didesnis AEI naudojimas gali pristabdyti BVP apimčių mažėjimą.Scientists have established that energy consumption determines the size of gross national income. Establishment of this relationship resulted in the increased responsibility of decision-makers in the area of energy and environmental policy. The paper aims to evaluate causal relationships between gross consumption of renewable energy sources (RES) and economic growth (indicated by the Lithuanian real gross domestic product (GDP), calculated in prices of the previous year) in 1990–2009. Lithuania’s economy developed unevenly during the given period. Based on the economic development division over time presented by M. Montvilaitė, an analysis of the Lithuanian GDP and its factors was carried out. RES consumption volume was not large after Lithuania regained independence, yet it has increased by 5.4 per cent annually. It should be noted that in 2001–2009 (except for 2007) Lithuania was the net exporter of RES. The timeline analysis was followed by the unit root, Johansen co-integration, and Granger causality tests. RES are an important constituent part of the Lithuanian energy sector and the country’s economy. The results show that RES consumption could be a factor influencing real GDP in the short run. This shows that wider consumption of RES could contribute to the increase in GDP volume. Positive interrelationship between the selected variables was found during economic growth periods. In the case of economic recession, bigger consumption of RES could mitigate a slump of real GDP

Mikroekonomika : vadovėlis aukštųjų mokyklų studentams

Vadovėlis skirtas aukštųjų mokyklų studentams, studijuojantiems ekonomikos bei vadybos dalykusKauno technologijos universitetasKauno technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected] technologijos universitetas, [email protected]