Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy

This paper recasts Temin's (1976) question of whether monetary forces caused the Great Depression in a modern time series framework. We adopt a Bayesian estimation and forecasting algorithm to evaluate the eects of monetary policy against nonmonetary alternatives, allowing for time-varying parameters and coeffcient updating. We nd that the predictive power of monetary policy is very small for the early phase of the depression and breaks down almost entirely after 1931. During the propagation phase of 1930-31, monetary policy is able to forecast correctly at short time horizons put in- variably predicts recovery at longer horizons. Conrming Temin (1976), we nd that nonmonetary leading indicators, particularly on residential construc- tion and equipment investment, have impressive predictive power. Already in September 1929, they forecast about two thirds of downturn correctly. Our time varying framework also permits us to examine the stability of the dy- namic parameter structure of our estimates. We nd that the monetary im- pulse responses exhibit remarkable structural instability and react clearly to changes in the monetary regime that occurred during the depression. We nd this phenomenon to be discomforting in the light of the Lucas (1976) critique, as it suggests that the money/income relationship may itself have been en- dogenous to policy and was not in the set of deep parameters of the U.S. economy. Given the instability and poor predictive power of monetary instru- ments and the strong showing of leading indicators on real activity, we remain skeptical with regard to a monetary interpretation of the Great Depression in the U.S.

IL-13R alpha 2 reverses the effects of IL-13 and IL-4 on bronchial reactivity and acetylcholine-induced Ca2+ signaling

Background: The interleukins IL-4 and IL-13 play a key role in the pathophysiology of asthma. The interleukin receptor IL-13R alpha 2 is believed to act as a decoy receptor, but until now, the functional significance of IL-13R alpha 2 remains vague. Methods: Bronchial reactivity was quantified in murine lung slices by digital video microscopy and acetylcholine (ACH)-induced Ca2+ signaling was measured in human airway smooth muscle cells (ASMC) using fluorescence microscopy. Results: IL-4 or IL-13 up to 50 ng/ml induced bronchial hyperreactivity. But after incubation with 100 ng/ml this effect was lost and bronchial responsiveness was again comparable to the control level. The effects of IL-4 and IL-13 on bronchial reactivity were paralleled by the effects on ASMC proliferation. Fifty nanograms per milliliter of IL-4 and IL-13 increased the Ca2+ response of human ASMC to ACH. At 100 ng/ml, however, the effects of the cytokines on the Ca2+ response were no longer evident. The expression of IL-13R alpha 2 increased with increasing concentrations of IL-4 or IL-13, reaching its maximum at 100 ng/ml. Blocking IL-13R alpha 2, the loss of the effect of IL-4 and IL-13 at 100 ng/ml on human ASMC proliferation and the ACH-induced Ca2+ response were no longer present. Conclusions: IL-4 and IL-13 induce bronchial hyperreactivity by changing the Ca2+ homeostasis of ASMC. These effects are counteracted by IL-13R alpha 2. The biological significance of IL-13R alpha 2 might be a protective function by regulating IL-13- and IL-4-mediated signal transduction and thereby limiting pathological alterations in Th2-mediated inflammatory diseases. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel

Torsion-freeness and non-singularity over right p.p.-rings

AbstractA right R-module M is non-singular if xI≠0 for all non-zero x∈M and all essential right ideals I of R. The module M is torsion-free if Tor1R(M,R/Rr)=0 for all r∈R. This paper shows that, for a ring R, the classes of torsion-free and non-singular right R-modules coincide if and only if R is a right Utumi-p.p.-ring with no infinite set of orthogonal idempotents. Several examples and applications of this result are presented. Special emphasis is given to the case where the maximal right ring of quotients of R is a perfect left localization of R

Map Generation from Large Scale Incomplete and Inaccurate Data Labels

Accurately and globally mapping human infrastructure is an important and challenging task with applications in routing, regulation compliance monitoring, and natural disaster response management etc.. In this paper we present progress in developing an algorithmic pipeline and distributed compute system that automates the process of map creation using high resolution aerial images. Unlike previous studies, most of which use datasets that are available only in a few cities across the world, we utilizes publicly available imagery and map data, both of which cover the contiguous United States (CONUS). We approach the technical challenge of inaccurate and incomplete training data adopting state-of-the-art convolutional neural network architectures such as the U-Net and the CycleGAN to incrementally generate maps with increasingly more accurate and more complete labels of man-made infrastructure such as roads and houses. Since scaling the mapping task to CONUS calls for parallelization, we then adopted an asynchronous distributed stochastic parallel gradient descent training scheme to distribute the computational workload onto a cluster of GPUs with nearly linear speed-up.Comment: This paper is accepted by KDD 202

Weltordnung und Vereinte Nationen

Der Artikel geht der Frage nach, welches denn die Ordnungsprobleme der Weltordnung sind und welche Akteure sich als Problemlöser anbieten. Es wird die These vertreten, daß zukünftig insbesondere die Vereinten Nationen eine wichtige Rolle spielen werden. Abschließend wird auch die Rolle der Bundesrepublik in dem neuen Szenario untersucht

Operations and Performance of the PACS Instrument 3He Sorption Cooler on board of the Herschel Space Observatory

A 3He sorption cooler produced the operational temperature of 285mK for the bolometer arrays of the Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) instrument of the Herschel Space Observatory. This cooler provided a stable hold time between 60 and 73h, depending on the operational conditions of the instrument. The respective hold time could be determined by a simple functional relation established early on in the mission and reliably applied by the scientific mission planning for the entire mission. After exhaustion of the liquid 3He due to the heat input by the detector arrays, the cooler was recycled for the next operational period following a well established automatic procedure. We give an overview of the cooler operations and performance over the entire mission and distinguishing in-between the start conditions for the cooler recycling and the two main modes of PACS photometer operations. As a spin-off, the cooler recycling temperature effects on the Herschel cryostat 4He bath were utilized as an alternative method to dedicated Direct Liquid Helium Content Measurements in determining the lifetime of the liquid Helium coolant.Comment: 34 pages, 13 figures, accepted in Experimental Astronom

Glucocorticosteroid-induced spinal osteoporosis: scientific update on pathophysiology and treatment

Glucocorticosteroid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) is the most frequent of all secondary types of osteoporosis. The understanding of the pathophysiology of glucocorticoid (GC) induced bone loss is of crucial importance for appropriate treatment and prevention of debilitating fractures that occur predominantly in the spine. GIOP results from depressed bone formation due to lower activity and higher death rate of osteoblasts on the one hand, and from increased bone resorption due to prolonged lifespan of osteoclasts on the other. In addition, calcium/phosphate metabolism may be disturbed through GC effects on gut, kidney, parathyroid glands and gonads. Therefore, therapeutic agents aim at restoring balanced bone cell activity by directly decreasing apoptosis rate of osteoblasts (e.g., cyclical parathyroid hormone) or by increasing apoptosis rate of osteoclasts (e.g., bisphosphonates). Other therapeutical efforts aim at maintaining/restoring calcium/phosphate homeostasis: improving intestinal calcium absorption (using calcium supplementation, vitamin D and derivates) and avoiding increased urinary calcium loss (using thiazides) prevent or counteract a secondary hyperparathyroidism. Bisphosphonates, particularly the aminobisphosphonates risedronate and alendronate, have been shown to protect patients on GCs from (further) bone loss and to reduce vertebral fracture risk. Calcitonin may be of interest in situations where bisphosphonates are contraindicated or not applicable and in cases where acute pain due to vertebral fracture has to be managed. The intermittent administration of 1-34-parathormone may be an appealing treatment alternative, based on its documented anabolic effects on bone resulting from the reduction of osteoblastic apoptosis. Calcium and vitamin D should be a systematic adjunctive measure to any drug treatment for GIOP. Based on currently available evidence, fluoride, androgens, estrogens (opposed or unopposed) cannot be recommended for the prevention and treatment of GIOP. However, substitution of gonadal hormones may be indicated if GC-induced hypogonadism is present and leads to clinical symptoms. Data using the SERM raloxifene to treat or prevent GIOP are lacking, as are data using the promising bone anabolic agent strontium ranelate. Kyphoplasty performed in appropriately selected osteoporotic patients with painful vertebral fractures is a promising addition to current medical treatmen