Measured and modeled energy balance parameters to evaluate the environmental conditions of reforestation

In order to develop three models for use in quantifying the environmental conditions of reforestation, extensive measurements required for energy balance calculations were taken for a reforestation site in southwest Oregon. The models are used to decrease the number of measurements required to properly evaluate the potential for heat or moisture stress at a specific reforestation site. The first model, a modification of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation equation, is calibrated to allow prediction of actual evaporation from net radiation and soil heat flux under nonsaturated, soil water limited conditions. By combining Bowen ratio measurements of evaporation and soil water content, an equation was developed to calculate a modified Priestley-Taylor coefficient, α', as a function of soil water content. When the soil is near field capacity α' is ≈ 0.85. Under drier soil conditions, the decrease in α is well described by an exponential equation. The soil water content did not become limiting to evapotranspiration until 60 percent of the available water was used. The second model uses the inverse solution to the soil heat flow equation to determine soil thermal conductivity for layered, heterogeneous soils. The results of the model indicate that soil thermal properties could be adequately modeled by separating the soil into four physical layers to account for the variability in soil water content, bulk density and rock fragment content. The four layer soil model could predict temperatures within 0.3°C and soil heat flux within 0.006 MJ /m² /day. The third model predicts solar radiation. The model incorporates thorough treatment of all components of radiation, (Rayleigh scatter, aerosol scatter, multiple reflected, ground reflected and direct beam radiation) yet only requires the basic site measurements of slope, aspect, latitude, longitude, elevation, and ground albedo. These data are combined with a simple estimate of turbidity (either from a local weather station or literature values) and literature values for atmospheric content of ozone and water vapor to provide a good estimate of potential solar radiation. The model also considers the anisotropic distribution of diffuse radiation and the strong influence that blocking ridges have on total diffuse radiation as well as direct beam. The model was tested using data collected from six sites with different atmospheric conditions and topographic settings

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models : effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change

Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage in the 21st Century

In this paper, I examine the trends of fiscal transfers between the state and workers during 1959 - 2012 to understand the net impact of redistributive policy in the United States. This paper presents original net social wage data from and analysis based on the replication and extension of Shaikh and Tonak (2002). The paper investigates the appearance of a post-2001 variation in the net social wage data. The positive net social wage in the 21st century is the result of a combination of factors including the growth of income support, healthcare inflation, neoliberal tax reforms, and macroeconomic instability. Growing economic inequality does not appear to alter the results of the net social wage methodology

A preliminary characterization of the spatial variability of precipitation at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Isohyetal maps of precipitation and numerical models for simulating precipitation are needed to characterize natural infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial variability of precipitation within the domain of the natural catchments overlying the potential repository, and to define preliminary geostatistical models based on differences in storm type for the numerical simulation of precipitation

Influence of deterministic geologic trends on spatial variability of hydrologic properties in volcanic tuff

Hydrologic properties have been measured on outcrop samples taken from a detailed, two-dimension grid covering a 1.4 km outcrop exposure of the 10-m thick non-welded-to-welded, shardy base microstratigraphic unit of the Tiva Canyon Member of the Miocene Paintbrush Tuff at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These data allow quantification of spatial trends in rock matrix properties that exist in this important hydrologic unit. Geologic investigation, combined with statistical and geostatistical analyses of the numerical data, indicates that spatial variability of matrix properties is related to deterministic geologic processes that operated throughout the region. Linear vertical trends in hydrologic properties are strongly developed in the shardy base microstratigraphic unit, and they are more accurately modeled using the concept of a thickness-normalized stratigraphic elevation within the unit, rather than absolute elevation. Hydrologic properties appear to be correlated over distances of 0.25 to 0.3 of the unit thickness after removing the deterministic vertical trend. The use of stratigraphic elevation allows scaling of identified trends by unit thickness which may be of particular importance in a basal, topography-blanketing unit such as this one. Horizontal changes in hydrologic properties do not appear to form obvious trends within the limited lateral geographic extent of the ash-flow environment that was examined. Matrix properties appear to be correlated horizontally over distances between 100 and 400 m. The existence and quantitative description of these trends and patterns of vertical spatial continuity should increase confidence in models of hydrologic properties and groundwater flow in this area that may be constructed to support the design of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

Micrometeorological and Soil Data for Calculating Evapotranspiration for Rainier Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada 2002-05.

Micrometeorological and soil-moisture data were collected at two instrumented sites on Rainier Mesa at the Nevada Test Site, January 1, 2002/August 23, 2005. Data collected at each site include net radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at two heights; wind speed and direction; subsurface soil heat flux; subsurface soil temperature; volumetric soil water; and matric water potential. These data were used to estimate 20-minute average and daily average evapotranspiration values. The data presented in this report are collected and calculated evapotranspiration rates

Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadowsnetwork with climate change

Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using circuit theory, and determined how patches have been and are expected to be affected by climate change. Connectivity surfaces varied depending upon the underlying hypothesis, although meadow area and elevation were important features for higher connectivity. Climate refugia that would promote population persistence were identified from downscaled climate layers, based on locations with minimal climatic change from historical conditions. This approach was agnostic to specific species, yielding a broad perspective about changes and localized habitats. Connectivity was not a consistent predictor of refugial status in the 20th century, but expected future climate refugia tended to have higher connectivity than those that recently deviated from historical conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce the number of refugial meadows on a variety of climate axes, resulting in a sparser network of potential refugia across elevations. Our approach provides a straightforward method that can be used as a tool to prioritize places for climate adaptation.This work was primarily supported by a grant from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (80250-BJ127) to TLM, CM, and SRB, along with funding from the U.C. Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology to SRB and an NSF Bioinformatics Postdoctoral Research Fellowship to TLM. We thank Eric Berlow, Bob Westfall, Connie Millar, Sarah Stock, and David Wright for analytical input. We thank J.Z. Drexler and at least two anonymous reviewers for comments that improved earlier drafts

The impact of different DNA extraction kits and laboratories upon the assessment of human gut microbiota composition by 16S rRNA gene sequencing

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of coenzyme Q10 in Huntington disease

Objective: To test the hypothesis that chronic treatment of early-stage Huntington disease (HD) with high-dose coenzyme Q10 (CoQ) will slow the progressive functional decline of HD. Methods: We performed a multicenter randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients with early-stage HD (n = 609) were enrolled at 48 sites in the United States, Canada, and Australia from 2008 to 2012. Patients were randomized to receive either CoQ 2,400 mg/d or matching placebo, then followed for 60 months. The primary outcome variable was the change from baseline to month 60 in Total Functional Capacity score (for patients who survived) combined with time to death (for patients who died) analyzed using a joint-rank analysis approach. Results: An interim analysis for futility revealed a conditional power of <5% for the primary analysis, prompting premature conclusion in July 2014. No statistically significant differences were seen between treatment groups for the primary or secondary outcome measures. CoQ was generally safe and well-tolerated throughout the study. Conclusions: These data do not justify use of CoQ as a treatment to slow functional decline in HD