Associations of Vaccination and of Prior Infection with Positive PCR Test Results for SARS-CoV-2 in Airline Passengers Arriving in Qatar

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has severely affected international travel. With efficacious COVID-19 vaccines available, Qatar implemented a pilot program between February 18 and April 26, 2021, to ease travel restrictions by waiving the quarantine requirement for vaccinated residents who received their second vaccine dose at least 14 days before arrival. The program still required a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to be performed on each passenger on arrival at Hamad International Airport, Qatar’s international travel gate. We investigated the incidence of PCR-positive test results in arriving passengers

A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes

We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.Peer reviewe

Molecular epidemiology and genotype distribution of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) among Arab women in the state of Qatar

Background: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) infection is the major cause of cervical cancer worldwide. With limited data available on HPV prevalence in the Arab countries, this study aimed to identify the prevalence and genotypic distribution of HPV in the State of Qatar. Methods: 3008 cervical samples, exclusively of women with Arabic origin residing in Qatar were collected from the Women’s Hospital and Primary Health Care Corporation in Doha, State of Qatar. HPV DNA detection was done using GP5+/6+ primers based real time-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay followed by the usage of HPV type specific primers based RT- PCR reactions and Sanger sequencing for genotype identification. Results: Similar prevalence rates of HPV infection was identified in both Qatari and non-Qatari women at 6.2% and 5.9% respectively. HPV prevalence rate of 5.8% and 18.4% was identified in women with normal cytology and in women with abnormal cytology respectively. HPV 81, 11 and 16, in decreasing order were the most commonly identified genotypes. HPV 81 was the most frequent low-risk genotype among women with both normal (74.0%) and abnormal (33.3%) cytology. HPV 16 (4.6%) was identified as the predominant high-risk HPV genotype among women with normal cytology and HPV 16, HPV 18, and HPV 56 (22.2% each) were the most common identified high-risk genotypes in women with abnormal cytology Conclusions: The overall HPV prevalence in Arab women in Qatar was identified as 6.1% with an increased HPV prevalence seen in women with abnormal cytology results and no significant trends seen with age. In contrast to Western countries, we report a varied genotypic profile of HPV with a high prevalence of low-risk HPV genotype 81 among the Arab women residing in Qatar.Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar; and by a grant from the Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP- 09-344-3-082)

Bivalent mRNA-1273.214 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 omicron XBB* infections

In October of 2022, Qatar introduced COVID-19 bivalent vaccination for persons ≥ 12 years using the 50-μg mRNA-1273.214 vaccine combining SARS-CoV-2 ancestral and omicron BA.1 strains.1 We estimated this vaccine’s effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using Qatar’s national SARS-CoV-2 databases, we conducted a matched, retrospective, cohort study to compare infection incidence in the national cohort of persons who received the vaccine (bivalent cohort) to that in the national cohort of Qatar residents whose last vaccination was ≥6 months before follow-up start (no-recent-vaccination cohort; Supplementary Appendix 1). The 6-month cut-off was chosen because of negligible effectiveness of first-generation vaccines against omicron infection ≥ 6 months after vaccination.2 Incidence of infection was defined as the first SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive or rapid-antigen-positive test after the start of follow-up, regardless of symptoms. Cohorts were balanced on observed confounders through exact matching. Follow-up started 7 days after the person in the bivalent cohort received their vaccine dose. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for the matching factors and testing rate

SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates in Qatar.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where < 9% of the population are ≥ 50 years. We show that SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality demonstrate a striking age dependence with low values for those aged < 50 years, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥ 50 years. Age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. With Qatar's young population, overall SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality were not high with < 4 infections in every 1000 being severe or critical and < 2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Only 13 infections in every 1000 received any hospitalization in acute-care-unit beds and < 2 in every 1000 were hospitalized in intensive-care-unit beds. However, we show that these rates would have been much higher if Qatar's population had the demographic structure of Europe or the United States. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to considerably lower disease burden than currently believed

SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates

AbstractBackgroundThis study aimed to estimate the age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on an analysis of the pervasive SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar, a country with &lt;9% of the population being ≥50 years of age.MethodsInfection disease outcomes were investigated using a Bayesian approach applied to an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the population. The model was fitted to infection and disease time-series and age-stratified data. Two separate criteria for classifying morbidity were used: one based on actual recorded hospital admission (acute-care or intensive-care-unit hospitalization) and one based on clinical presentation as per World Health Organization classification of disease severity or criticality.ResultsAll outcomes showed very strong age dependence, with low values for those &lt;50 years of age, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥50 years of age. The strong age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. Infection acute-care and intensive-care-unit bed hospitalization rates were estimated at 13.10 (95% CI: 12.82-13.24) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.58-1.61) per 1,000 infections, respectively. Infection severity and criticality rates were estimated at 3.06 (95% CI: 3.01-3.10) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67-0.68) per 1,000 infections, respectively. Infection fatality rate was estimated at 1.85 (95% CI: 1.74-1.95) per 10,000 infections.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality in Qatar was not high and demonstrated a very strong age dependence with &lt;4 infections in every 1,000 being severe or critical and &lt;2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to lower disease burden than previously thought.</jats:sec

Epidemiological impact of prioritizing SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: Mathematical modeling analyses

AbstractBackgroundVaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritizing available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example.MethodsVaccination impact was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination.ResultsFor a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome, or death by prioritizing antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritization by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritization by age group amplified the gains of prioritization by antibody status. Gains from prioritization by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30-60%, which is perhaps where most countries will be by the time vaccination programs are up and running. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritize vaccination recipients were similar.ConclusionsMajor health, societal, and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.</jats:sec

COVID-19 risk score as a public health tool to guide targeted testing: A demonstration study in Qatar

We developed a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk score to guide targeted RTPCR testing in Qatar. The Qatar national COVID-19 testing database, encompassing a total of 2,688,232 RT-PCR tests conducted between February 5, 2020-January 27, 2021, was analyzed. Logistic regression analyses were implemented to derive the COVID-19 risk score, as a tool to identify those at highest risk of having the infection. Score cut-off was determined using the ROC curve based on maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity. The score's performance diagnostics were assessed. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, and nationality as significant predictors of infection and were included in the risk score. The ROC curve was generated and the area under the curve was estimated at 0.63 (95% CI: 0.63-0.63). The score had a sensitivity of 59.4% (95% CI: 59.1%-59.7%), specificity of 61.1% (95% CI: 61.1%-61.2%), a positive predictive value of 10.9% (95% CI: 10.8%- 10.9%), and a negative predictive value of 94.9% (94.9%-95.0%). The concept and utility of a COVID-19 risk score were demonstrated in Qatar. Such a public health tool can have considerable utility in optimizing testing and suppressing infection transmission, while maximizing efficiency and use of available resources. 2022 Abu-Raddad et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Immune Imprinting and Protection against Repeat Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2

More than 2 years into the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, the global population carries heterogeneous immune histories derived from various exposures to infection, viral variants, and vaccination.1 Evidence at the level of binding and neutralizing antibodies and B-cell and T-cell immunity suggests that a history of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can have a negative effect on subsequent protective immunity.1 In particular, the immune response to B.1.1.529 (omicron) subvariants could be compromised by differential immune imprinting in persons who have had a previous infection with the original virus or the B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant.