Safe Sowing Windows for Smallholder Farmers in West Africa in the Context of Climate Variability

Climate variability poses great challenges to food security in West Africa, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for farming. Identifying sowing strategies that minimize yield losses for farmers in the region is crucial to securing their livelihood. In this paper, we investigate three sowing strategies to assess their ability to identify safe sowing windows for smallholder farmers in the Sudanian region of West Africa (WA) in the context of a changing climate. The GIS version of the FAO crop model, AquaCrop-GIS, is used to simulate the yield response of maize (Zea mays L.) to varying sowing dates throughout the rainy season across WA. Based on an average of 38 years of data per grid cell, we identify safe sowing windows across the Sudanian region that secure at least 90% of maximal yield. We find that current sowing strategies, based on minimum thresholds for rainfall accumulated over a period that are widely applied in the region, carry a higher risk of yield failure, especially at the beginning of the rainy season. This analysis shows that delaying sowing for a month to mid-June in the central region (east of Lon 8.5°W), and to early August in the semi-arid areas is a safer strategy that ensures optimal yields. A comparison between the periods 1982–1991 and 1992–2019 shows a negative shift for LO10 mm and LO20 mm, suggesting a wetter regime compared to the dry periods of the 1970s and 1980s. On the contrary, we observe a positive shift in the safe window strategy, highlighting the need for precautions due to erratic rainfall at the beginning of the season. The precipitation-based strategies hold a high risk, while the safe sowing window strategy, easily accessible to smallholder farmers, is more fitting, given the current climate.Water Resource

Optimal Sowing Windows under Rainfall Variability in Rainfed Agriculture in West Africa

Climate change is exacerbating adverse impacts of water stress in rainfed agriculture. This paper seeks to identify safe sowing windows for smallholder farmers in the Sudanian region of West Africa (WA). We hypothesize that the traditional focus on the onset of the season to start sowing leads to crop losses in years of high rainfall intermittency. AquaCrop, an FAO crop model, is used to simulate the yield response of maize (Zea mays L.) to sowing dates ranging from the 1st of May to the 30th of November at 20 locations in WA. We find that sowing directly after the first rains carries a higher risk of water stress, hampering crop development due to insufficient buildup of soil water storage to overcome dry spells. Based on three years of data per station on average, we identify safe sowing windows across the Sudanian region that secure optimal yield in 97% of all cases. We find that delaying sowing to mid-June (savanna and western part of the region) and to July (semi-arid region) ensures optimal yields. Of the three commonly applied local onset approaches covered in our evaluation, only LO10mm (10 mm/day on four consecutive days) achieves a similar yield result. The advantage of the safe window approach is that it is accessible for smallholders, who in many cases do not have access to local rainfall information.Water Resource

Flash Drought Typologies and Societal Impacts: A Worldwide Review of Occurrence, Nomenclature, and Experiences of Local Populations

Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and intensification, are increasingly occurring as a consequence of climate change and rising temperatures. However, existing hydrometeorological definitions fail to encompass the full range of flash droughts, many of which have distinct local physical attributes. Consequently, these events often go undetected or unforecast in generic global flash drought assessments and are underrepresented in research. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive survey to gather information on local nomenclature, characteristics, and impacts of flash droughts worldwide. The survey revealed the widespread occurrence of these phenomena, highlighting their underre-searched nature. By analyzing case studies, through literature review often in local languages to unearth elusive studies, we identified five different types of flash droughts based on their specific characteristics. Our study aims to increase awareness about the complexity and diverse impacts of flash droughts, emphasizing the importance of considering regional contexts and the vulnerability of affected populations. The reported impacts underscore the need for better integration of all flash drought types in drought research, monitoring, and management. Monitoring a combination of indicators is crucial for timely detection and response to this emerging and escalating threat.Water Resource

Where should hydrology go? An early-career perspective on the next IAHS Scientific Decade: 2023–2032

This paper shares an early-career perspective on potential themes for the upcoming International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Scientific Decade (SD). This opinion paper synthesizes six discussion sessions in western Europe identifying three themes that all offer a different perspective on the hydrological threats the world faces and could serve to direct the broader hydrological community: “Tipping points and thresholds in hydrology,” “Intensification of the water cycle,” and “Water services under pressure.” Additionally, four trends were distinguished concerning the way in which hydrological research is conducted: big data, bridging science and practice, open science, and inter- and multidisciplinarity. These themes and trends will provide valuable input for future discussions on the theme for the next IAHS SD. We encourage other early-career scientists to voice their opinion by organizing their own discussion sessions and commenting on this paper to make this initiative grow from a regional initiative to a global movement.Water ResourcesHydraulic Engineerin