Global assessment of climate change and trade on food security

Abstract. The rise in global trade has led to improvements in the standard of living and lifted many out of poverty, but not all countries have been able to fully integrate into the world trading system due to lack of resources. Access to food supplies is critical for those with inadequate access to food for sustainable consumption. The evolving trade dynamics and climate change will result in winners and losers for the global food system, with some regions experiencing double exposure to economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade openness can significantly reduce vulnerabilities and enhance food security, if necessary, infrastructure is in place. Although global trade can play a crucial role in ensuring that the global food system adapts to a changing climate, this potential will only be realized if trade is managed to maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets and minimize the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, enhanced transportation networks, combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets, could reduce the impact of double exposure on food security.Keywords. International trade; Food security; Climate change.JEL. F13; F14; Q54

Intra-industry trade: Revisiting theory and literature survey

Abstract. Early references to intra-industry trade were mostly ignored for many years. It was only in the past two decades that intra-industry trade has received significant attention and has become a leading area for international economists. It has become increasingly common in recent decades due to the growth of international trade, globalization, and the integration of economies. Intra-industry trade can benefit countries by allowing them to specialize in their areas of comparative advantage and to access a wider range of products and services at lower prices. However, it can also pose challenges for some industries and workers who may face increased competition from foreign producers. The purpose of this paper is to review the extensive literature on intra-industry trade, assess the accomplishments of researchers in this area and predict future research directions. The paper evaluates intra-industry trade as a research program and assesses whether it can continue to advance in the future. To organize the paper, the authors evaluate current perspectives in four distinct areas: theory, measurement, empirical evidence, and policy aspects.Keywords. Intra-industry trade; Imperfect competition; Classical theories of trade.JEL. F11; F12; F13

LSTM based Anomaly Detection in Time Series for United States exports and imports

This survey aims to offer a thorough and organized overview of research on anomaly detection, which is a significant problem that has been studied in various fields and application areas. Some anomaly detection techniques have been tailored for specific domains, while others are more general. Anomaly detection involves identifying unusual patterns or events in a dataset, which is important for a wide range of applications including fraud detection and medical diagnosis. Not much research on anomaly detection techniques has been conducted in the field of economic and international trade. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the time-series data of United Nations exports and imports for the period 1992 – 2022 using LSTM based anomaly detection algorithm. Deep learning, particularly LSTM networks, are becoming increasingly popular in anomaly detection tasks due to their ability to learn complex patterns in sequential data. This paper presents a detailed explanation of LSTM architecture, including the role of input, forget, and output gates in processing input vectors and hidden states at each timestep. The LSTM based anomaly detection approach yields promising results by modelling small-term as well as long-term temporal dependencies

Determinants of Money Demand for India in Presence of Structural Break: An Empirical Analysis

This paper empirically analyses India’s money demand function during the period 1996 to 2013 using quarterly data. Cointegration test suggests that money demand represented by M1 and Interest Rate have a unit root, whereas in the presence of structural break both of the variables are found to be stationary which implies that shocks are temporary in nature. It was found that there is no long term equilibrium relationship in the money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using dynamic OLS, it is concluded that GDP and short term interest rate has a positive impact on money demand (M1)

Global assessment of climate change and trade on food security

The rise in global trade has led to improvements in the standard of living and lifted many out of poverty, but not all countries have been able to fully integrate into the world trading system due to lack of resources. Access to food supplies is critical for those with inadequate access to food for sustainable consumption. The evolving trade dynamics and climate change will result in winners and losers for the global food system, with some regions experiencing double exposure to economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade openness can significantly reduce vulnerabilities and enhance food security, if necessary, infrastructure is in place. Although global trade can play a crucial role in ensuring that the global food system adapts to a changing climate, this potential will only be realized if trade is managed to maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets and minimize the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, enhanced transportation networks, combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets, could reduce the impact of double exposure on food security

Smile Curve and its linkages with Global Value Chains

The concept and logic of ‘smile curve’ in the context of global value chains has gained importance in recent time period and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the sectoral level using real data for cross-country analysis. Using TIVA database for 2001 and 2011 time period, several conceptual value chain are investigated including exports of Base Metals, Computer Electronics, Electrical Machinery and Transportation equipment’s in Asian Economies. This paper focuses an idea to measure both the strength and linkages between producers and consumers of global value chain. The identified smile curve provides a very intuitive understanding of the roles played by different countries in various sectors and helps in identifying the benefits gained by them through their participation in global trade. The dynamics of structural upgrading and interactive growth via trade and investment within a hierarchy of countries is aligned with “flying-geese (FG)” theory of growth. The paper also gives emphasis on the role of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in broadening economic integration

Intra-industry trade: Revisiting theory and Literature Survey

Early references to intra-industry trade were mostly ignored for many years. It was only in the past two decades that intra-industry trade has received significant attention and has become a leading area for international economists. It has become increasingly common in recent decades due to the growth of international trade, globalization, and the integration of economies. Intra-industry trade can benefit countries by allowing them to specialize in their areas of comparative advantage and to access a wider range of products and services at lower prices. However, it can also pose challenges for some industries and workers who may face increased competition from foreign producers. The purpose of this paper is to review the extensive literature on intra-industry trade, assess the accomplishments of researchers in this area and predict future research directions. The paper evaluates intra-industry trade as a research program and assesses whether it can continue to advance in the future. To organize the paper, the authors evaluate current perspectives in four distinct areas: theory, measurement, empirical evidence, and policy aspects

Determinants of Money Demand for India in Presence of Structural Break: An Empirical Analysis

This paper empirically analyses India’s money demand function during the period 1996 to 2013 using quarterly data. Cointegration test suggests that money demand represented by M1 and Interest Rate have a unit root, whereas in the presence of structural break both of the variables are found to be stationary which implies that shocks are temporary in nature. It was found that there is no long term equilibrium relationship in the money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using dynamic OLS, it is concluded that GDP and short term interest rate has a positive impact on money demand (M1)

The empirical measurement and determinants of intra-industry trade for a developing country

The analysis computed the trends and determinants of India’s bilateral composite IIT as well as sectoral IIT with select trade partners. In particular, Grubel - Lloyd Corrected (Grubel and Lloyd, 1975) and Aquino (1997) indices have been used for the empirical analysis involving bilateral aggregate and bilateral sectoral IIT respectively. The empirical results provide evidence for a major part of actual IIT to be explained outside the framework of the neoclassical theories of international trade. The major findings are as follows. First, India’s aggregate as well as sectoral IITs in general displayed a positive time trend with the ROW. This signifies that the country’s two-way manufacturing trade in general and its IPN participation with partners in particular has considerably deepened over the period. Second, the regression analysis indicates that several demand-related (e.g., income difference), supply-oriented (e.g., technology difference), friction-led (e.g., distance, trade facilitation, contiguity, language) and sector-specific (e.g., average labour productivity, vertical product differentiation) factors display a strong statistical relationship with IIT as expected. Third, the empirical analysis strongly underlines the importance of trade facilitation measures in enhancing IIT, which needs to be viewed in a wider perspective. As presence of poor connectivity framework raises transport costs and discourage trade in parts and components (i.e., the relatively low value-added items) significantly, the two-way trade (i.e., IIT) in a wide range of manufacturing product segment can be affected. Fourth, as diversification of product baskets (i.e., product differentiation) happens to be a significant driver of IIT, there is a strong case to focus on technological innovation through research and development (R&D), for maintaining intra-sectoral manufacturing trade flows