Assessment of the capacity for flood monitoring and early warning in Enlargement and Eastern/ Southern Neighbourhood countries of the European Union

Flooding is a natural disaster that can damage large areas in the vicinity of rivers, and in the case of flash floods, also in the vicinity of smaller streams. The Global Risks Report 2017 lists extreme weather events, of which flooding is the main risk in most countries, as the risk with the second highest potential impact and the highest likelihood of occurrence. It furthermore seems likely that climate change will aggravate flood impacts in many regions. This report presents an assessment of the capacity for flood monitoring and early flood warning in 17 of the 22 countries which belong to the Eastern and Southern neighbourhood policy of the European Union and the enlargement candidate countries. Many of these receive external funding to improve their systems, but this is often on an ad hoc basis and through individual projects.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPLICATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON THE OLD KITCHEN CULINARY BUSINESS

This study aims to analyze the effect of information technology implementation on the culinary business Dapur Lama. Dapur Lama, which was founded in October 2023 by Suci Sartika, has experienced significant development thanks to the use of information technology. Through in-depth interviews, this study identified various technologies implemented, such as digital cashier systems, social media, and online ordering applications, as well as their impact on operational efficiency, increasing the number of customers, and service quality. The results of the interviews showed that the implementation of information technology not only improves operational efficiency, but also expands market reach and increases customer satisfaction. Although there are challenges in managing technology and content consistency, the benefits obtained are much greater. This study concludes that information technology plays an important role in the development of culinary businesses in the future and provides recommendations for other business actors to gradually implement relevant technolog

Nomenclature revision for encapsulated follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma:a paradigm shift to reduce overtreatment of indolent tumors

Although growing evidence points to highly indolent behavior of encapsulated follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (EFVPTC), most patients with EFVPTC are treated as having conventional thyroid cancer

Transformations of substituted cyanoiminooctahydroquinazolines under oxidation conditions

Substituted quinazolines of various degrees of saturation and functionalization possess a wide spectrum of biological activity, in particular, anticancer activity, which predetermines the importance of obtaining new representatives of this type of compounds and studying their practically useful properties. Methods for the preparation of 2-cyanoiminoquinazolines are poorly described in the literature, while their properties and oxidation reactions have not been studied at all. We have analyzed the stability of tautomeric forms of 2-cyanoiminoquinazolines, determined the activation energy of their formation using quantum-chemical calculations, studied their transformation under the action of strong oxidants (CrO3/AcOH, NaNO2/AcOH). Selective aromatization of the azoheterocycle and hydrolysis of the -CN-group to form 2-aminocarbamoylquinazoline occurred during oxidation. An increase in temperature from 120 to 160° C (using CrO3) resulted in the formation of 2-nitrosoquinazoline. The structure of our new obtained substances was established by spectral methods (IR, 1H, 13C NMR, HSQC, NOESY), a scheme of their formation has been proposed

Measurements of the pp → ZZ production cross section and the Z → 4ℓ branching fraction, and constraints on anomalous triple gauge couplings at √s = 13 TeV

Four-lepton production in proton-proton collisions, pp -> (Z/gamma*)(Z/gamma*) -> 4l, where l = e or mu, is studied at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The ZZ production cross section, sigma(pp -> ZZ) = 17.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.7 (syst) +/- 0.4 (theo) +/- 0.4 (lumi) pb, measured using events with two opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs produced in the mass region 60 4l) = 4.83(-0.22)(+0.23) (stat)(-0.29)(+0.32) (syst) +/- 0.08 (theo) +/- 0.12(lumi) x 10(-6) for events with a four-lepton invariant mass in the range 80 4GeV for all opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs. The results agree with standard model predictions. The invariant mass distribution of the four-lepton system is used to set limits on anomalous ZZZ and ZZ. couplings at 95% confidence level: -0.0012 < f(4)(Z) < 0.0010, -0.0010 < f(5)(Z) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(4)(gamma) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(5)(gamma) < 0.0013

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Changes in the societal burden caused by sleep apnoea in Finland from 1996 to 2018 : A national registry study

Background In the current century, sleep apnoea has become a significant public health problem due to the obesity epidemic. To increase awareness, improve diagnostics, and improve treatment, Finland implemented a national sleep apnoea programme from 2002 to 2010. Here, we present changes in the societal burden caused by sleep apnoea from 1996 to 2018. Methods National register data were collected from the Care Register for Health Care, Statistics Finland, the Social Insurance Institution of Finland, and the Finnish Centre for Pensions. Disease prevalence, use of healthcare and social services, and societal costs were estimated. Findings The number of sleep apnoea patients increased in secondary care from 8 600 in 1996 to 61 000 in 2018. There was a continuous increase in outpatient visits in secondary care from 9 700 in 1996 to 122 000 in 2018 (1 160%) and in primary care from 10 000 in 2015 to 29 000 in 2018 (190%). Accordingly, the cumulative annual number of days off work for sleep apnoea increased from 1 100 to 46 000. However, disability pensions for sleep apnoea decreased from 820 to 550 (33%) during the observation period. Societal costs per patient decreased over 50% during the observation period ((sic) 2 800 to (sic)1 200). Interpretation The number of sleep apnoea patients in Finland increased remarkably during the observation period. To control this burden, diagnostic methods and treatment were revised and follow up was reorganised. Consequently, there was a significant decrease in societal costs per patient. The decrease in disability pensions suggests earlier diagnosis and improved treatment. The national sleep apnoea programme was one of the initiators for these improved outcomes. Funding The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare and the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUH), Helsinki, Finland. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer reviewe

EFECTOS DE UN PROGRAMA ESTRUCTURADO DE ENTRENAMIENTO FUNCIONAL SOBRE LA CONDICIÓN FÍSICA SALUDABLE DE ADULTOS JÓVENES DE BARRANQUILLA (COLOMBIA)

Introduction: the structured programming of physical training helps to reduce the chances of suffering from chronic noncommunicable diseases, in the same way it increases the quality of people's health, especially in the cardiovascular, respiratory, neuromuscular and musculoskeletal systems. This facilitates the optimization of healthy physical condition, an aspect that favors the individual, the development of daily activities with maximum functionality, efficiency and effectiveness. Objective: To verify the effects of a structured program of functional training on muscular endurance in young adults. Materials and Methods: Type of quasi-experimental study, with pre intervention and post intervention evaluation in an experimental group. In 15 young adults attending a gym in the city of Barranquilla, the tests were applied: upper end muscle resistance without time limit, abdominal muscle resistance in 1 min, lower limb muscle resistance and flexibility, the intervention was performed with a structured program of functional training comparing pretest and postest. Results: significant changes were presented after the intervention, comparing the results of the pre-test with those of the post-test, in muscular resistance of the upper limbs (mean: 33.29 vs 45.57) P: 0.04, flexibility (mean: 13.57 vs. 3.86) P: 0.05. Conclusions: It can be seen that muscular endurance and flexibility capacities can be adapted in a positive way through an intervention with a structured program of functional training, for 8 weeks, with a frequency of three times per week for 45 minutes/day.Introducción: la programación estructurada del entrenamiento físico contribuye a reducir las probabilidades de padecer enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles, de igual manera aumenta la calidad de la salud de las personas, especialmente en los sistemas, cardiovascular, respiratoria, neuromuscular y musculoesquelético. Esto facilita la optimización de la condición física saludable, aspecto que favorece en el individuo el desarrollo de las actividades diarias con máxima funcionalidad, eficiencia y eficacia. Objetivo: Verificar los efectos de un programa estructurado de entrenamiento funcional sobre la resistencia muscular en adultos jóvenes. Materiales y Métodos: Tipo de estudio cuasi experimental, con evaluación pre intervención y post intervención en un grupo experimental. En 15 adultos jóvenes que asisten a un gimnasio de la ciudad de Barranquilla se aplicaron las pruebas: resistencia muscular del tren superior sin límite de tiempo, resistencia muscular del abdomen en 1 min, resistencia muscular de miembros inferiores y flexibilidad, la intervención se realizó con un programa estructurado de entrenamiento funcional comparando pre test y post test. Resultados: post intervención se presentaron cambios significativos comparando los resultados del pre test con los del post test, en resistencia muscular de miembros superiores (media: 33,29 vs 45,57) P: 0,04, flexibilidad (media: 13,57 vs 3,86)&nbsp; P: 0,05. Conclusiones: Se puede constatar que las capacidades de resistencia muscular y flexibilidad se pueden adaptar de manera positiva a través de una intervención con un programa estructurado de entrenamiento funcional, por 8 semanas, con una frecuencia de tres veces por semana por 45 minutos/día

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Changes in the societal burden caused by sleep apnoea in Finland from 1996 to 2018: A national registry study

BackgroundIn the current century, sleep apnoea has become a significant public health problem due to the obesity epidemic. To increase awareness, improve diagnostics, and improve treatment, Finland implemented a national sleep apnoea programme from 2002 to 2010. Here, we present changes in the societal burden caused by sleep apnoea from 1996 to 2018.MethodsNational register data were collected from the Care Register for Health Care, Statistics Finland, the Social Insurance Institution of Finland, and the Finnish Centre for Pensions. Disease prevalence, use of healthcare and social services, and societal costs were estimated.FindingsThe number of sleep apnoea patients increased in secondary care from 8 600 in 1996 to 61 000 in 2018. There was a continuous increase in outpatient visits in secondary care from 9 700 in 1996 to 122 000 in 2018 (1 160%) and in primary care from 10 000 in 2015 to 29 000 in 2018 (190%). Accordingly, the cumulative annual number of days off work for sleep apnoea increased from 1 100 to 46 000. However, disability pensions for sleep apnoea decreased from 820 to 550 (33%) during the observation period. Societal costs per patient decreased over 50% during the observation period (€2 800 to €1 200).InterpretationThe number of sleep apnoea patients in Finland increased remarkably during the observation period. To control this burden, diagnostic methods and treatment were revised and follow up was reorganised. Consequently, there was a significant decrease in societal costs per patient. The decrease in disability pensions suggests earlier diagnosis and improved treatment. The national sleep apnoea programme was one of the initiators for these improved outcomes.FundingThe Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare and the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUH), Helsinki, Finland.</p