Risk Aversion and the Subjective Time Discount Rate: A Joint Approach

In this paper we analyze a large sample of individual responses to six lottery questions. We derive a simultaneous estimate of risk aversion and the time preference discount rate per individual. This can be done because the consumption of a large prize is smoothed over a larger time period. It is found that both parameters strongly vary over individuals, while they are moderately negatively correlated. Furthermore we explain the estimated relative risk aversion and time preference by income, age, gender, entrepreneurship and an obesity index. Very significant effects are found. If we explain relative risk aversion in a simple model where time discounting is ignored, we find completely different estimates for this parameter. We conclude that in the case of lotteries with big prizes a simultaneous estimate of risk aversion and time preference is needed in order to avoid misspecificationexpected utility, risk aversion, time preference, lotteries, hypothetical questions

A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population

This paper presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the lab, suggesting that utility is less pronounced than what is found in classical measurements where expected utility is assumed. Utility for losses is found to be convex, consistent with diminishing sensitivity, and the obtained loss aversion coefficient of 1.6 is moderate but in agreement with contemporary evidence. The estimated probability weighing functions have an inverse-S shape and they imply pessimism in both domains. These results show that probability weighting is also an important phenomenon in the general population. Women and lower educated individuals are found to be more risk averse, in agreement with common findings. Unlike previous studies that ascribed gender differences in risk attitudes solely to differences in the degree utility curvature, however, our results show that this finding is primarily driven by loss aversion and, for women, also by a more pessimistic psychological response towards the probability of obtaining the best possible outcome.loss aversion, utility for gains and losses, prospect theory, subjective probability weighting

Risk Aversion and the Subjective Time Discount Rate: A Joint Approach

In this paper we analyze a large sample of individual responses to six lottery questions. We derive a simultaneous estimate of risk aversion and the time preference discount rate per individual. This can be done because the consumption of a large prize is smoothed over a larger time period. It is found that both parameters strongly vary over individuals, while they are moderately negatively correlated. Furthermore we explain the estimated relative risk aversion and time preference by income, age, gender, entrepreneurship and an obesity index. Very significant effects are found. If we explain relative risk aversion in a simple model where time discounting is ignored, we find completely different estimates for this parameter. We conclude that in the case of lotteries with big prizes a simultaneous estimate of risk aversion and time preference is needed in order to avoid misspecificatio

A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population

This paper presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the lab, suggesting that utility is less pronounced than what is found in classical measurements where expected utility is assumed. Utility for losses is found to be convex, consistent with diminishing sensitivity, and the obtained loss aversion coefficient of 1.6 is moderate but in agreement with contemporary evidence. The estimated probability weighing functions have an inverse-S shape and they imply pessimism in both domains. These results show that probability weighting is also an important phenomenon in the general population. Women and lower educated individuals are found to be more risk averse, in agreement with common findings. Unlike previous studies that ascribed gender differences in risk attitudes solely to differences in the degree utility curvature, however, our results show that this finding is primarily driven by loss aversion and, for women, also by a more pessimistic psychological response towards the probability of obtaining the best possible outcome.prospect theory, utility for gains and losses, loss aversion, subjective probability weighting

Enriching Students Pays Off: Evidence from an Individualized Gifted and Talented Program in Secondary Education

We examine the effect of a gifted and talented program in academic secondary education. Students are assigned based on a cutoff score in a cognitive aptitude test, which we exploit in a fuzzy regression discontinuity framework to identify program effects. We find that assigned students obtain higher grades, follow a more science intensive curriculum (most notably for girls), and report stronger beliefs about their academic abilities. We also find that these positive effects persist in university, where students choose more challenging fields of study with, on average, higher returns. Together, these findings are consistent with a human capital interpretation

A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

"In this paper we analyze a sample of 1,832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82. Instead, assuming consumption to be immediate gives an estimate of 2, close to what is traditionally reported, while a model of full asset integration gives estimates higher by several orders of magnitude. Our results show that estimated risk aversion is sensitive to the assumptions made with respect to the consumption profile and that it is possible to determine the level of asset integration endogenously. The average subjective time discount rate, which includes a preference for the present, equals 6% per month. It is found that both parameters vary strongly over individuals and that the variation can be explained by income, age, gender, and entrepreneurship, consistent with the majority of previous evidence." [author's abstract

Risk Aversion and the Subjective Time Discount Rate: A Joint Approach

In this paper we analyze a large sample of individual responses to six lottery questions. Wederive a simultaneous estimate of risk aversion ? and the time preference discount rate ? perindividual. This can be done because the consumption of a large prize is smoothed over a largertime period. It is found that ? and ? strongly vary over individuals, while they are negativelycorrelated with a correlation coefficient of -.3. Furthermore we explain ? and ? by income,age, gender, entrepreneurship and an obesity index. Very significant effects are found. If weexplain ? in a simple model where time discounting is ignored, we find completely differentestimates for ? . We conclude that in the case of lotteries with big prizes a simultaneous estimateof ? and ? is needed in order to avoid misspecification

Ability Tracking and Social Capital in China's Rural Secondary School System

The goal of this paper is describe and analyze the relationship between ability tracking and student social capital, in the context of poor students in developing countries. Drawing on the results from a longitudinal study among 1,436 poor students across 132 schools in rural China, we find a significant lack of interpersonal trust and confidence in public institutions among poor rural young adults. We also find that there is a strong correlation between ability tracking during junior high school and levels of social capital. The disparities might serve to further widen the gap between the relatively privileged students who are staying in school and the less privileged students who are dropping out of school. This result suggests that making high school accessible to more students would improve social capital in the general population