Forecasting New Zealand\u27s Real GDP

Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand’s real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz (1978) BIC and the Phillips-Ploberger (1996) PIC criteria. The forecasts generated by the data-determined AR models and an international VAR model are found to be competitive with forecasts from fixed format models and forecasts produced by the NZIER. Two illustrations of the methodology in conditional forecasting settings are performed with the VAR models. The first provides conditional predictions of New Zealand’s real GDP when there is a future recession in the United States. The second gives conditional predictions of New Zealand’s real GDP under a variety of profiles that allow for tightening in monetary conditions by the Reserve Bank

Reactivating Fetal Hemoglobin Expression in Human Adult Erythroblasts Through BCL11A Knockdown Using Targeted Endonucleases.

We examined the efficiency, specificity, and mutational signatures of zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs), transcriptional activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), and clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR)/Cas9 systems designed to target the gene encoding the transcriptional repressor BCL11A, in human K562 cells and human CD34+ progenitor cells. ZFNs and TALENs were delivered as in vitro transcribed mRNA through electroporation; CRISPR/Cas9 was codelivered by Cas9 mRNA with plasmid-encoded guideRNA (gRNA) (pU6.g1) or in vitro transcribed gRNA (gR.1). Analyses of efficacy revealed that for these specific reagents and the delivery methods used, the ZFNs gave rise to more allelic disruption in the targeted locus compared to the TALENs and CRISPR/Cas9, which was associated with increased levels of fetal hemoglobin in erythroid cells produced in vitro from nuclease-treated CD34+ cells. Genome-wide analysis to evaluate the specificity of the nucleases revealed high specificity of this specific ZFN to the target site, while specific TALENs and CRISPRs evaluated showed off-target cleavage activity. ZFN gene-edited CD34+ cells had the capacity to engraft in NOD-PrkdcSCID-IL2Rγnull mice, while retaining multi-lineage potential, in contrast to TALEN gene-edited CD34+ cells. CRISPR engraftment levels mirrored the increased relative plasmid-mediated toxicity of pU6.g1/Cas9 in hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs), highlighting the value for the further improvements of CRISPR/Cas9 delivery in primary human HSPCs

Quartet S Wave Neutron Deuteron Scattering in Effective Field Theory

The real and imaginary part of the quartet S wave phase shift in nd scattering (^4 S_{3/2}) for centre-of-mass momenta of up to 300 MeV (E_cm \approx 70 MeV) is presented in effective field theory, using both perturbative pions and a theory in which pions are integrated out. As available, the calculation agrees with both experimental data and potential model calculations, but extends to a higher, so far untested momentum r\'egime above the deuteron breakup point. A Lagrangean more feasible for numerical computations is derived.Comment: 27 pages LaTeX2e with 11 figures, uses packages includegraphicx (6 .eps files), color and feynmp (necessary Metapost files included). Corrections in bibliography and NNLO results added above breaku

Higher Partial Waves in an Effective Field Theory Approach to nd Scattering

The phase shifts for the higher partial waves (l\ge 1) in the spin quartet and doublet channel of nd scattering at centre-of-mass energies up to 15 MeV are presented at next-to-leading and next-to-next-to-leading order in an effective field theory in which pions are integrated out. As available, the results agree with both phase shift analyses and potential model calculations.Comment: 23 pages LaTeX2e with 8 figures, uses packages includegraphicx (18 .eps files), amssymb, color and feynmp (necessary Metapost files included). Petty changes, version for publication in Nucl. Phys.

Low Energy Expansion in the Three Body System to All Orders and the Triton Channel

We extend and systematise the power counting for the three-body system, in the context of the ``pion-less'' Effective Field Theory approach, to all orders in the low-energy expansion. We show that a sub-leading part of the three-body force appears at the third order and delineate how the expansion proceeds at higher orders. After discussing the renormalisation issues in a simple bosonic model, we compute the phase shifts for neutron-deuteron scattering in the doublet S wave (triton) channel and compare our results with phase shift analysis and potential model calculations.Comment: 22 pages revtex4, 7 figures in 8 .eps files. Figures cosmetically changed, minor corrections. Version accepted for publication in Nucl Phys

Safe storage of pesticides in Sri Lanka – Identifying important design features influencing community acceptance and use of safe storage devices

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-poisoning with pesticides is the cause of an estimated 300,000 deaths annually in rural Asia. The great majority of these deaths are from impulsive acts of self-harm using pesticides that are readily available in the home. The secure storage of pesticides under lock has been emphasized as a possible answer to the problem. This aspect, however, has been poorly researched. In this paper, we report on the design and use, in rural Sri Lanka, of a variety of different lockable storage devices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Following a baseline survey of pesticide storage practices, randomly selected households received a pesticide safe storage device. The study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase a total of 200 households in two villages were provided with in-house safe storage devices and two follow-up surveys were conducted seven and 24 months after distribution. The results of the seven month post-distribution survey have already been published. In the second phase, a further 168 households were selected in two additional villages and given a choice between an in-house and an in-field storage device and a follow-up survey conducted seven months after distribution. Both follow-up surveys aimed to assess the use of the device, obtain detailed user feedback on the different storage designs, and to identify problems faced with safeguarding the key. Twelve focus group discussions were held with representatives of households that received a storage device to derive from the community qualitative feedback on the design requirements for such devices.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and sixty one of the 200 households selected during the first phase were using pesticides at the time of the follow-up survey, 24 months after distribution. Of these 161 households 89 (55%) had the pesticides stored and locked in the provided device. Among the 168 households that were given a choice between an in-house and an in-field storage device 156 used pesticides at the time of survey and of these 103 (66%) selected in-field storage devices and 34% chose in-house storage devices. Of the 156 households, 106 (68%) stored all pesticides in a locked storage device at the time of the follow-up survey seven months after distribution. The majority of households that received an in-field storage device chose to install the device within their compound rather than in the field as they were concerned about the possibility of theft. The preferred design of the storage device was influenced by a number of occupational factors such as land size, crop patterns, types and the quantity of pesticides used. The presence of termites, perceived safety, material used to manufacture the device and ease of location influenced their choice. The study revealed that it was difficult to keep the key to the device hidden from children; and that the person in charge of the key would have easy access to the stored poison.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study confirms the high acceptance of lockable storage devices by the community although the use of the device reduced over time. A large proportion of pesticides stored within the compound after the introduction of the device may have implications for accessibility to pesticides in the domestic environment. The ability of other household members, including children, to easily find the key is also worrying.</p

Relativistic Effect on Low-Energy Nucleon-Deuteron Scattering

The relativistic effect on differential cross sections, nucleon-to-nucleon and nucleon-to-deuteron polarization transfer coefficients, and the spin correlation function, of nucleon-deuteron elastic scattering is investigated employing several three-dimensional relativistic three-body equations and several nucleon-nucleon potentials. The polarization transfer coefficients are found to be sensitive to the details of the nucleon-nucleon potentials and the relativistic dynamics employed, and prefer trinucleon models with the correct triton binding energy. (To appear in Phys. Rev. C)Comment: pages: 21, LaTex text + 7 ps-figures at the en

The DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey: The Voronoi-Delaunay Method Catalog of Galaxy Groups

We present a public catalog of galaxy groups constructed from the spectroscopic sample of galaxies in the fourth data release from the Deep Extragalactic Evolutionary Probe 2 (DEEP2) Galaxy Redshift Survey, including the Extended Groth Strip (EGS). The catalog contains 1165 groups with two or more members in the EGS over the redshift range 0 0.6 in the rest of DEEP2. Twenty-five percent of EGS galaxies and fourteen percent of high-z DEEP2 galaxies are assigned to galaxy groups. The groups were detected using the Voronoi-Delaunay method (VDM) after it has been optimized on mock DEEP2 catalogs following similar methods to those employed in Gerke et al. In the optimization effort, we have taken particular care to ensure that the mock catalogs resemble the data as closely as possible, and we have fine-tuned our methods separately on mocks constructed for the EGS and the rest of DEEP2. We have also probed the effect of the assumed cosmology on our inferred group-finding efficiency by performing our optimization on three different mock catalogs with different background cosmologies, finding large differences in the group-finding success we can achieve for these different mocks. Using the mock catalog whose background cosmology is most consistent with current data, we estimate that the DEEP2 group catalog is 72% complete and 61% pure (74% and 67% for the EGS) and that the group finder correctly classifies 70% of galaxies that truly belong to groups, with an additional 46% of interloper galaxies contaminating the catalog (66% and 43% for the EGS). We also confirm that the VDM catalog reconstructs the abundance of galaxy groups with velocity dispersions above ~300 km s^(–1) to an accuracy better than the sample variance, and this successful reconstruction is not strongly dependent on cosmology. This makes the DEEP2 group catalog a promising probe of the growth of cosmic structure that can potentially be used for cosmological tests

High-Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) longitudinal controller: Design, analyses, and simulation resultss

This paper describes the design, analysis, and nonlinear simulation results (batch and piloted) for a longitudinal controller which is scheduled to be flight-tested on the High-Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The HARV is an F-18 airplane modified for and equipped with multi-axis thrust vectoring. The paper includes a description of the facilities, a detailed review of the feedback controller design, linear analysis results of the feedback controller, a description of the feed-forward controller design, nonlinear batch simulation results, and piloted simulation results. Batch simulation results include maximum pitch stick agility responses, angle of attack alpha captures, and alpha regulation for full lateral stick rolls at several alpha's. Piloted simulation results include task descriptions for several types of maneuvers, task guidelines, the corresponding Cooper-Harper ratings from three test pilots, and some pilot comments. The ratings show that desirable criteria are achieved for almost all of the piloted simulation tasks