Mavacamten for treatment of symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (EXPLORER-HCM): health status analysis of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Improving symptoms is a primary treatment goal in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Currently available pharmacological options for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy are not disease-specific and are often inadequate or poorly tolerated. We aimed to assess the effect of mavacamten, a first-in-class cardiac myosin inhibitor, on patients' health status-ie, symptoms, physical and social function, and quality of life. METHODS: We did a health status analysis of EXPLORER-HCM, a phase 3, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. The study took place at 68 clinical cardiovascular centres in 13 countries. Adult patients (≥18 years) with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (gradient ≥50 mm Hg and New York Heart Association class II-III) were randomly assigned (1:1) to mavacamten or placebo for 30 weeks, followed by an 8-week washout period. Both patients and staff were masked to study treatment. The primary outcome for this secondary analysis was the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ), a well validated disease-specific measure of patients' health status. It was administered at baseline and weeks 6, 12, 18, 30 (end of treatment), and 38 (end of study). Changes from baseline to week 30 in KCCQ overall summary (OS) score and all subscales were analysed using mixed model repeated measures. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03470545. FINDINGS: Between May 30, 2018, and July 12, 2019, 429 adults were assessed for eligibility, of whom 251 (59%) were enrolled and randomly assigned. Of 123 patients randomly assigned to mavacamten, 92 (75%) completed the KCCQ at baseline and week 30 and of the 128 patients randomly assigned to placebo 88 (69%) completed the KCCQ at baseline and week 30. At 30 weeks, the change in KCCQ-OS score was greater with mavacamten than placebo (mean score 14·9 [SD 15·8] vs 5·4 [13·7]; difference +9·1 [95% CI 5·5-12·8]; p<0·0001), with similar benefits across all KCCQ subscales. The proportion of patients with a very large change (KCCQ-OS ≥20 points) was 36% (33 of 92) in the mavacamten group versus 15% (13 of 88) in the placebo group, with an estimated absolute difference of 21% (95% CI 8·8-33·4) and number needed to treat of five (95% CI 3-11). These gains returned to baseline after treatment was stopped. INTERPRETATION: Mavacamten markedly improved the health status of patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy compared with placebo, with a low number needed to treat for marked improvement. Given that the primary goals of treatment are to improve symptoms, physical and social function, and quality of life, mavacamten represents a new potential strategy for achieving these goals. FUNDING: MyoKardia, a Bristol Myers Squibb company

A bi-directional relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life : evidence from the longitudinal AusDiab study

Objective: To assess the prospective relationship between obesity and health-related quality of life, including a novel assessment of the impact of health-related quality of life on weight gain.Design and setting: Longitudinal, national, population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, with surveys conducted in 1999/2000 and 2004/2005.Participants: A total of 5985 men and women aged 25 years at study entry.Main outcome measure(s): At both time points, height, weight and waist circumference were measured and self-report data on health-related quality of life from the SF-36 questionnaire were obtained. Cross-sectional and bi-directional, prospective associations between obesity categories and health-related quality of life were assessed.Results: Higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline was associated with deterioration in health-related quality of life over 5 years for seven of the eight health-related quality of life domains in women (all P0.01, with the exception of mental health, P&gt;0.05), and six out of eight in men (all P&lt;0.05, with the exception of role-emotional, P=0.055, and mental health, P&gt;0.05). Each of the quality-of-life domains related to mental health as well as the mental component summary were inversely associated with BMI change (all P&lt;0.0001 for women and P0.01 for men), with the exception of vitality, which was significant in women only (P=0.008). For the physical domains, change in BMI was inversely associated with baseline general health in women only (P=0.023).Conclusions: Obesity was associated with a deterioration in health-related quality of life (including both physical and mental health domains) in this cohort of Australian adults followed over 5 years. Health-related quality of life was also a predictor of weight gain over 5 years, indicating a bi-directional association between obesity and health-related quality of life. The identification of those with poor health-related quality of life may be important in assessing the risk of future weight gain, and a focus on health-related quality of life may be beneficial in weight management strategies.<br /

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

From regional pulse vaccination to global disease eradication: insights from a mathematical model of Poliomyelitis

Mass-vaccination campaigns are an important strategy in the global fight against poliomyelitis and measles. The large-scale logistics required for these mass immunisation campaigns magnifies the need for research into the effectiveness and optimal deployment of pulse vaccination. In order to better understand this control strategy, we propose a mathematical model accounting for the disease dynamics in connected regions, incorporating seasonality, environmental reservoirs and independent periodic pulse vaccination schedules in each region. The effective reproduction number, $R_e$, is defined and proved to be a global threshold for persistence of the disease. Analytical and numerical calculations show the importance of synchronising the pulse vaccinations in connected regions and the timing of the pulses with respect to the pathogen circulation seasonality. Our results indicate that it may be crucial for mass-vaccination programs, such as national immunisation days, to be synchronised across different regions. In addition, simulations show that a migration imbalance can increase $R_e$ and alter how pulse vaccination should be optimally distributed among the patches, similar to results found with constant-rate vaccination. Furthermore, contrary to the case of constant-rate vaccination, the fraction of environmental transmission affects the value of $R_e$ when pulse vaccination is present.Comment: Added section 6.1, made other revisions, changed titl

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Empirically-Informed Modal Rationalism

In this chapter, it is suggested that our epistemic access to metaphysical modality generally involves rationalist, a priori elements. However, these a priori elements are much more subtle than ‘traditional’ modal rationalism assumes. In fact, some might even question the ‘apriority’ of these elements, but I should stress that I consider a priori and a posteriori elements especially in our modal inquiry to be so deeply intertwined that it is not easy to tell them apart. Supposed metaphysically necessary identity statements involving natural kind terms are a good example: the fact that empirical input is crucial in establishing their necessity has clouded the role and content of the a priori input, as I have previously argued (Tahko forthcoming). For instance, the supposed metaphysically necessary identity statement involving water and its microstructure can only be established with the help of a controversial a priori principle concerning the determination of chemical properties by microstructure. The Kripke-Putnam framework of modal epistemology fails precisely because it is unclear whether the required a priori element is present. My positive proposal builds on E. J. Lowe’s work. Lowe holds that our knowledge of metaphysical modality is based on our knowledge of essence. Lowe’s account strives to offer a uniform picture of modal epistemology: essence is the basis of all our modal knowledge. This is the basis of Lowe’s modal rationalism. I believe that Lowe’s proposal is on the right lines in the case of abstract objects, but I doubt that it can be successfully applied to the case of natural kinds. Accordingly, the case of natural kinds will be my main focus and I will suggest that modal rationalism, at least as it is traditionally understood, falls short of explaining modal knowledge concerning natural kinds. Yet, I think that Lowe has identified something of crucial importance for modal epistemology, namely the essentialist, a priori elements present in our modal inquiry. The upshot is that rather than moving all the way from modal rationalism to modal empiricism, a type of hybrid approach, ‘empirically-informed modal rationalism’, can be developed.Peer reviewe

The effect of prior statin use on 30-day mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors ("statins") may have beneficial effects for patients at risk for some types of infections. We examined the effect of prior outpatient use of statins on mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of, had a chest x-ray consistent with, and had a discharge ICD-9 diagnosis of pneumonia. Subjects were excluded if they were "comfort measures only" or transferred from another acute care hospital. Subjects were considered to be on a medication if they were taking it at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Data was abstracted on 787 subjects at the two hospitals. Mortality was 9.2% at 30-days and 13.6% at 90-days. At presentation 52% of subjects were low risk, 34% were moderate risk, and 14% were high risk based on the pneumonia severity index. In the multivariable regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders including a propensity score, the use of statins at presentation (odds ratio 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.14–0.92) was associated with decreased 30-day mortality. DISCUSSION: Prior outpatient statin use was associated with decreased mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia despite their use being associated with comorbid illnesses likely to contribute to increased mortality. Confirmatory studies are needed, as well as research to determine the mechanism(s) of this protective effect

The impact of prior outpatient ACE inhibitor use on 30-day mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors may have beneficial effects for patients at risk for some types of infections. We examined the effect of prior outpatient use of ACE inhibitors on mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of, had a chest x-ray consistent with, and had a discharge ICD-9 diagnosis of pneumonia. Subjects were excluded if they were "comfort measures only" or transferred from another acute care hospital. Subjects were considered to be on a medication if they were taking it at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Data was abstracted on 787 subjects at the two hospitals. Mortality was 9.2% at 30-days and 13.6% at 90-days. At presentation 52% of subjects were low risk, 34% were moderate risk, and 14% were high risk. In the multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, the use of ACE inhibitors at presentation (odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.22–0.89) was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Prior outpatient use of an ACE inhibitor was associated with decreased mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia despite their use being associated with comorbid illnesses likely to contribute to increased mortality. Confirmatory studies are needed, as well as research to determine the mechanism(s) of this protective effect

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Towards an empirical test of realism in cognition

We review recent progress in designing an empirical test of (temporal) realism in cognition. Realism in this context is the property that cognitive variables always have well defined (if possibly unknown) values at all times. We focus most of our attention in this contribution on discussing the exact notion of realism that is to be tested, as we feel this issue has not received enough attention to date. We also give a brief outline of the empirical test, including some comments on an experimental realisation, and we discuss what we should conclude from any purported experimental ‘disproof’ of realism. This contribution is based on Yearsley and Pothos (2014)