Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Evolutionary relationships among barley and <i>Arabidopsis</i> core circadian clock and clock-associated genes

The circadian clock regulates a multitude of plant developmental and metabolic processes. In crop species, it contributes significantly to plant performance and productivity and to the adaptation and geographical range over which crops can be grown. To understand the clock in barley and how it relates to the components in the Arabidopsis thaliana clock, we have performed a systematic analysis of core circadian clock and clock-associated genes in barley, Arabidopsis and another eight species including tomato, potato, a range of monocotyledonous species and the moss, Physcomitrella patens. We have identified orthologues and paralogues of Arabidopsis genes which are conserved in all species, monocot/dicot differences, species-specific differences and variation in gene copy number (e.g. gene duplications among the various species). We propose that the common ancestor of barley and Arabidopsis had two-thirds of the key clock components identified in Arabidopsis prior to the separation of the monocot/dicot groups. After this separation, multiple independent gene duplication events took place in both monocot and dicot ancestors. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00239-015-9665-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The Gac-Rsm and SadB Signal Transduction Pathways Converge on AlgU to Downregulate Motility in Pseudomonas fluorescens

Flagella mediated motility in Pseudomonas fluorescens F113 is tightly regulated. We have previously shown that motility is repressed by the GacA/GacS system and by SadB through downregulation of the fleQ gene, encoding the master regulator of the synthesis of flagellar components, including the flagellin FliC. Here we show that both regulatory pathways converge in the regulation of transcription and possibly translation of the algU gene, which encodes a sigma factor. AlgU is required for multiple functions, including the expression of the amrZ gene which encodes a transcriptional repressor of fleQ. Gac regulation of algU occurs during exponential growth and is exerted through the RNA binding proteins RsmA and RsmE but not RsmI. RNA immunoprecipitation assays have shown that the RsmA protein binds to a polycistronic mRNA encoding algU, mucA, mucB and mucD, resulting in lower levels of algU. We propose a model for repression of the synthesis of the flagellar apparatus linking extracellular and intracellular signalling with the levels of AlgU and a new physiological role for the Gac system in the downregulation of flagella biosynthesis during exponential growth

Back from a Predicted Climatic Extinction of an Island Endemic: A Future for the Corsican Nuthatch

The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi) is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio) forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster), we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity) predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic activities than by climate change

Do Stacked Species Distribution Models Reflect Altitudinal Diversity Patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed

Which Factors Determine Spatial Segregation in the South American Opossums (Didelphis aurita and D. albiventris)? An Ecological Niche Modelling and Geometric Morphometrics Approach

Didelphis albiventris and D. aurita are Neotropical marsupials that share a unique evolutionary history and both are largely distributed throughout South America, being primarily allopatric throughout their ranges. In the Araucaria moist forest of Southern Brazil these species are sympatric and they might potentially compete having similar ecology. For this reason, they are ideal biological models to address questions about ecological character displacement and how closely related species might share their geographic space. Little is known about how two morphologically similar species of marsupials may affect each other through competition, if by competitive exclusion and competitive release. We combined ecological niche modeling and geometric morphometrics to explore the possible effects of competition on their distributional ranges and skull morphology. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict their potential distribution and this method enabled us to identify a case of biotic exclusion where the habit generalist D. albiventris is excluded by the presence of the specialist D. aurita. The morphometric analyses show that a degree of shape discrimination occurs between the species, strengthened by allometric differences, which possibly allowed them to occupy marginally different feeding niches supplemented by behavioral shift in contact areas. Overlap in skull morphology is shown between sympatric and allopatric specimens and a significant, but weak, shift in shape occurs only in D. aurita in sympatric areas. This could be a residual evidence of a higher past competition between both species, when contact zones were possibly larger than today. Therefore, the specialist D. aurita acts a biotic barrier to D. albiventris when niche diversity is not available for coexistence. On the other hand, when there is niche diversification (e.g. habitat mosaic), both species are capable to coexist with a minimal competitive effect on the morphology of D. aurita

Sphingomyelin Synthases Regulate Protein Trafficking and Secretion

Sphingomyelin synthases (SMS1 and 2) represent a class of enzymes that transfer a phosphocholine moiety from phosphatidylcholine onto ceramide thus producing sphingomyelin and diacylglycerol (DAG). SMS1 localizes at the Golgi while SMS2 localizes both at the Golgi and the plasma membrane. Previous studies from our laboratory showed that modulation of SMS1 and, to a lesser extent, of SMS2 affected the formation of DAG at the Golgi apparatus. As a consequence, down-regulation of SMS1 and SMS2 reduced the localization of the DAG-binding protein, protein kinase D (PKD), to the Golgi. Since PKD recruitment to the Golgi has been implicated in cellular secretion through the trans golgi network (TGN), the effect of down-regulation of SMSs on TGN-to-plasma membrane trafficking was studied. Down regulation of either SMS1 or SMS2 significantly retarded trafficking of the reporter protein vesicular stomatitis virus G protein tagged with GFP (VSVG-GFP) from the TGN to the cell surface. Inhibition of SMSs also induced tubular protrusions from the trans Golgi network reminiscent of inhibited TGN membrane fission. Since a recent study demonstrated the requirement of PKD activity for insulin secretion in beta cells, we tested the function of SMS in this model. Inhibition of SMS significantly reduced insulin secretion in rat INS-1 cells. Taken together these results provide the first direct evidence that both enzymes (SMS1 and 2) are capable of regulating TGN-mediated protein trafficking and secretion, functions that are compatible with PKD being a down-stream target for SMSs in the Golgi

Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs

Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.</p

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes

The epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in community-living seniors: protocol of the MemoVie cohort study, Luxembourg

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are increasingly considered a major public health problem. The MemoVie cohort study aims to investigate the living conditions or risk factors under which the normal cognitive capacities of the senior population in Luxembourg (≥ 65 year-old) evolve (1) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) – transitory non-clinical stage – and (2) to AD. Identifying MCI and AD predictors undeniably constitutes a challenge in public health in that it would allow interventions which could protect or delay the occurrence of cognitive disorders in elderly people. In addition, the MemoVie study sets out to generate hitherto unavailable data, and a comprehensive view of the elderly population in the country. METHODS/DESIGN: The study has been designed with a view to highlighting the prevalence in Luxembourg of MCI and AD in the first step of the survey, conducted among participants selected from a random sample of the general population. A prospective cohort is consequently set up in the second step, and appropriate follow-up of the non-demented participants allows improving the knowledge of the preclinical stage of MCI. Case-control designs are used for cross-sectional or retrospective comparisons between outcomes and biological or clinical factors. To ensure maximal reliability of the information collected, we decided to opt for structured face to face interviews. Besides health status, medical and family history, demographic and socio-cultural information are explored, as well as education, habitat network, social behavior, leisure and physical activities. As multilingualism is expected to challenge the cognitive alterations associated with pathological ageing, it is additionally investigated. Data relative to motor function, including balance, walk, limits of stability, history of falls and accidents are further detailed. Finally, biological examinations, including ApoE genetic polymorphism are carried out. In addition to standard blood parameters, the lipid status of the participants is subsequently determined from the fatty acid profiles in their red blood cells. The study obtained the legal and ethical authorizations. DISCUSSION: By means of the multidisciplinary MemoVie study, new insights into the onset of cognitive impairment during aging should be put forward, much to the benefit of intervention strategies as a whole