VARIABILITY OF THE EMISSION LINE FLUXES AND RATIOS OF HH 1/2

Comparamos datos espectrofotom´etricos obtenidos en 1978 (por Brugel et al. 1981a) con los flujos de l´ıneas de emisi´on de im´agenes calibradas obtenidas con el Hubble Space Telescope (HST) en 1994 y 2014. Esta comparaci´on muestra que los cocientes de l´ıneas de emisi´on de estos objetos se han mantenido sorprendentemente invariantes durante los ´ultimos 36 a˜nos. Por otro lado, las intensidades de las l´ıneas s´ı han cambiado, y muestran un incremento por un factor de ≈ 4 para HH 2, y un decremento de ≈ 30% para HH 1. Estos resultados apoyan la idea de que HH 1 y 2 son cabezas de jets densos, viajando en un medio ambiente con densidad decreciente (para HH 1) o creciente (para HH 2). ABSTRACT We compare spectrophotometric data of HH 1 and 2 obtained in 1978 (by Brugel et al. 1981a) with the emission line fluxes from calibrated Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images obtained in 1994 and 2014. This comparison shows that the emission line ratios of these objects have remained surprisingly invariant during the past 36 years. On the other hand, the line intensities have indeed changed, with HH 2 brightening by a factor of ≈ 4 and HH 1 becoming ≈ 30% fainter. These results would be consistent with HH 1 and 2 being leading working surfaces of heavy jets travelling into an environment of decreasing (for HH 1) or increasing (HH 2) densities

Efeito da utilização de acaricidas em citros, sobre a população de Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes, 1939) e ácaros predadores (Phytoseiidae)

The experiment was carried out in order to study the effects of some acaricides on Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes,1939) (Acari,Tenuipalpidae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiidae) hi citrus. The products tested and dosages in g AI/ 100 / of water were: fenpyroximate (5.0), acrinathrin (0.5), hexythiazox (1.5), amitraz (40.0) and sulphur (225.0). The acaricides fenpyroximate, acrinathrin and hexythiazox were efficient against B. phoenicis up to 127 days from the application date, whereas sulphur and amitraz presented good control up to 92 days and 58 days after treatment, respectively. Hexythiazox was fairly innocuous to predatory mites but, the remaining acaricides caused significant mortality to these mites. The pesticides sulphur, fenpyroximate and acrinathrin induced reductions of the population of phytoseid mites up to 58 days, but amitraz showed reductions up to 92 days after application.Foi conduzido experimento com o objetivo de estudar o efeito de alguns acaricidas sobre Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes,1939) (AcarirTenuipalpidae) e ácaros predadores (Phytoseiidae), em citros. Os produtos testados e as dosagens em g i.a./100 / de água foram: fenpyroximate (5,0), acrinathrin (0,5); hexythiazox (1,5); amitraz (40,0) e enxofre (225,0). Os acaricidas fenpyroximate, acrinathrin e hexythiazox foram eficientes contra B. phoenicis até 127 dias após a aplicação, enquanto que, o enxofre e o amitraz apresentaram bom controle até 92 e 58 dias após o tratamento, respectivamente. O hexythiazox foi praticamente inócuo aos ácaros predadores mas os demais acaricidas foram significativamente prejudiciais a estes ácaros. Os produtos enxofre, fenpyroximate e acrinathrin induziram reduções na população de fitoseíídeos até 58 dias, porém o amitraz apresentou reduções até 92 dias após a pulverização

Efeito da utilização de acaricidas em citros, sobre a população de Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes, 1939) e ácaros predadores (Phytoseiidae)

The experiment was carried out in order to study the effects of some acaricides on Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes,1939) (Acari,Tenuipalpidae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiidae) hi citrus. The products tested and dosages in g AI/ 100 / of water were: fenpyroximate (5.0), acrinathrin (0.5), hexythiazox (1.5), amitraz (40.0) and sulphur (225.0). The acaricides fenpyroximate, acrinathrin and hexythiazox were efficient against B. phoenicis up to 127 days from the application date, whereas sulphur and amitraz presented good control up to 92 days and 58 days after treatment, respectively. Hexythiazox was fairly innocuous to predatory mites but, the remaining acaricides caused significant mortality to these mites. The pesticides sulphur, fenpyroximate and acrinathrin induced reductions of the population of phytoseid mites up to 58 days, but amitraz showed reductions up to 92 days after application.Foi conduzido experimento com o objetivo de estudar o efeito de alguns acaricidas sobre Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes,1939) (AcarirTenuipalpidae) e ácaros predadores (Phytoseiidae), em citros. Os produtos testados e as dosagens em g i.a./100 / de água foram: fenpyroximate (5,0), acrinathrin (0,5); hexythiazox (1,5); amitraz (40,0) e enxofre (225,0). Os acaricidas fenpyroximate, acrinathrin e hexythiazox foram eficientes contra B. phoenicis até 127 dias após a aplicação, enquanto que, o enxofre e o amitraz apresentaram bom controle até 92 e 58 dias após o tratamento, respectivamente. O hexythiazox foi praticamente inócuo aos ácaros predadores mas os demais acaricidas foram significativamente prejudiciais a estes ácaros. Os produtos enxofre, fenpyroximate e acrinathrin induziram reduções na população de fitoseíídeos até 58 dias, porém o amitraz apresentou reduções até 92 dias após a pulverização

Educación sanitaria en la farmacia comunitaria: estudio controlado en la provincia de Castellón

Introducción: La educación para la salud es una de las actividades que debe realizar el farmacéutico comunitario orientada hacia el paciente. Con el objetivo de conocer la influencia de la educación sanitaria en los pacientes, se realizó un estudio controlado en farmacias comunitarias de la provincia de Castellón. Material y métodos: En el estudio participaron catorce oficinas de farmacia (siete en el grupo control y siete en el grupo intervención). En todas ellas se realizó una encuesta inicial a los pacientes sobre educación para la salud. En las farmacias del grupo intervención se realizaron cinco campañas de educación sanitaria y al finalizar cada campaña los pacientes completaron una encuesta para valorar la educación sanitaria recibida. En las farmacias del grupo control se pasaron las encuestas a los pacientes pero no se realizaron las campañas de educación sanitaria. Resultados y discusión: Los pacientes están significativamente más satisfechos con la formación que reciben en las farmacias que realizan educación sanitaria. Además, se incrementa significativamente la percepción que tiene la población del farmacéutico en la oficina de farmacia como punto de referencia a la hora de ayudar a resolver sus problemas de salud. La educación sanitaria permite que los pacientes reciban formación completa acerca de temas de salud que les preocupan y les proporciona más capacidad para resolverlos por ellos mismos.Introduction: Health education is one of the roles of the community pharmacist.A controlled study of pharmacies in the Spanish province of Castellón was carried out with the aim of determining the influence of health education on the general public. Material and methods: Fourteen pharmacies took part in the study: seven in the group control and seven in the intervention group. An initial survey about health education was conducted among the patients of all fourteen pharmacies. In the pharmacies in the intervention group five campaigns of health education were instigated; after each campaign patients answered a survey to evaluate the health education received. In the pharmacies in the control group the same surveys were carried out without the implementation of any educational campaigns. Results and discussion: Patients of the pharmacies in the intervention group were significantly more satisfied with their level of knowledge about health matters than those in the control other group. In addition, the same patients had a significantly more satisfied with the formation they received in the pharmacies that implemented the educational campaigns. In addition, patients of the pharmacies in the intervention group had a significantly better perception of the pharmacist and of the pharmacy as a reference point with respect to resolving their health problems. Health education informs patients about aspects of health and endows them with the aptitude to make decisions related to their health problems

The Physics of turbulent and dynamically unstable Herbig-Haro jets

The overall properties of the Herbig-Haro objects such as centerline velocity, transversal profile of velocity, flow of mass and energy are explained adopting two models for the turbulent jet. The complex shapes of the Herbig-Haro objects, such as the arc in HH34 can be explained introducing the combination of different kinematic effects such as velocity behavior along the main direction of the jet and the velocity of the star in the interstellar medium. The behavior of the intensity or brightness of the line of emission is explored in three different cases : transversal 1D cut, longitudinal 1D cut and 2D map. An analytical explanation for the enhancement in intensity or brightness such as usually modeled by the bow shock is given by a careful analysis of the geometrical properties of the torus.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Spac

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1�4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980�2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age�sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 5·7�6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7�53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3�43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6�2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1�57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6�3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95 uncertainty interval 2·9�3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4�3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78�0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1�1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens