Hydroisomerisation and hydrocracking of n-heptane: modelling and optimisation using a hybrid Artificial Neural Network–Genetic Algorithm (ANN–GA)

In this paper, the focus is on upgrading the value of naphtha compounds represented by n-heptane (n-C7H16) with zero octane number using a commercial zeolite catalyst consisting of a mixture of 75% HY and 25% HZSM-5 loaded with different amounts, 0.25 to 1 wt.%, of platinum metal. Hydrocracking and hydroisomerisation processes are experimentally and theoretically studied in the temperature range of 300–400 °C and under various contact times. A feedforward artificial neural network (FFANN) based on two hidden layers was used for the purpose of process modelling. A total of 80% of the experimental results was used to train the artificial neural network, with the remaining results being used for evaluation and testing of the network. Tan-sigmoid and log-sigmoid transfer functions were used in the first and second hidden layers, respectively. The optimum number of neurons in hidden layers was determined depending on minimising the mean absolute error (MAE). The best ANN model, represented by the multilayer FFANN, had a 4–24–24–12 topology. The ANN model accurately simulates the process in which the correlation coefficient (R2) was found to be 0.9918, 0.9492, and 0.9426 for training, validation, and testing, respectively, and an average of 0.9767 for all data. In addition, the operating conditions of the process were optimised using the genetic algorithm (GA) towards increasing the octane number of the products. MATLAB® Version 2020a was utilised to complete all required computations and predictions. Optimal operating conditions were found through the theoretical study: 0.85 wt.% Pt-metal loaded, 359.36 °C, 6.562 H2/n-heptane feed ratio, and 3.409 h−1 weight-hourly space velocity (WHSV), through which the maximum octane number (RON) of 106.84 was obtained. Finally, those operating conditions largely matched what was calculated from the results of the experimental study, where the highest percentage of the resulting isomers was found with about 78.7 mol% on the surface of the catalyst loaded with 0.75 wt.% Pt-metal at 350 °C using a feed ratio of 6.5 H2/n-C7 and WHSV of 2.98 h−1

The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC): Vaccine effectiveness study designs: Accelerating the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines and reducing the global burden of enteric fever. Report from a meeting held on 26-27 October 2016, Oxford, UK

Typhoid fever is estimated to cause between 11.9–26.9 million infections globally each year with 129,000–216,510 deaths. Access to improved water sources have reduced disease incidence in parts of the world but the use of efficacious vaccines is seen as an important public health tool for countries with a high disease burden. A new generation of Vi typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs), licensed for use in young children and expected to provide longer lasting protection than previous vaccines, are now available. The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) has convened a working group to review the evidence on TCVs and produce an updated WHO position paper for all typhoid vaccines in 2018 that will inform Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's future vaccine investment strategies for TCVs. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) has been formed through a $36.9 million funding program from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to accelerate the introduction of TCVs into Gavi-eligible countries. In October 2016, a meeting was held to initiate planning of TCV effectiveness studies that will provide the data required by policy makers and stakeholders to support decisions on TCV use in countries with a high typhoid burden. Discussion topics included (1) the latest evidence and data gaps in typhoid epidemiology; (2) WHO and Gavi methods and data requirements; (3) data on TCV efficacy; (4) cost effectiveness analysis for TCVs from mathematical models; (5) TCV delivery and effectiveness study design. Specifically, participants were asked to comment on study design in 3 sites for which population-based typhoid surveillance is underway. The conclusion of the meeting was that country-level decision making would best be informed by the respective selected sites in Africa and Asia vaccinating children aged from 9-months to 15-years-old, employing either an individual or cluster randomized design with design influenced by population characteristics, transmission dynamics, and statistical considerations

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma a

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Burden of diarrhea in the eastern mediterranean region, 1990-2013: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2013

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6 of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low-and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95 uncertainty interval UI = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden. Copyright © 2016 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene