Nonparametric estimation of a convex bathtub-shaped hazard function

In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a convex hazard function. We show that the MLE is consistent and converges at a local rate of $n^{2/5}$ at points $x_0$ where the true hazard function is positive and strictly convex. Moreover, we establish the pointwise asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator under these same assumptions. One notable feature of the nonparametric MLE studied here is that no arbitrary choice of tuning parameter (or complicated data-adaptive selection of the tuning parameter) is required.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/09-BEJ202 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Estimation of a discrete monotone distribution

We study and compare three estimators of a discrete monotone distribution: (a) the (raw) empirical estimator; (b) the "method of rearrangements" estimator; and (c) the maximum likelihood estimator. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator strictly dominates both the rearrangement and empirical estimators in cases when the distribution has intervals of constancy. For example, when the distribution is uniform on $\{0, ..., y \}$, the asymptotic risk of the method of rearrangements estimator (in squared $\ell_2$ norm) is $y/(y+1)$, while the asymptotic risk of the MLE is of order $(\log y)/(y+1)$. For strictly decreasing distributions, the estimators are asymptotically equivalent.Comment: 39 pages. See also http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/2009/ http://www.stat.washington.edu/jaw/RESEARCH/PAPERS/available.htm

Cities as emergent models: the morphological logic of Manhattan and Barcelona

This paper is set to unveil several particulars about the logic embedded in the diachronic model of city growth and the rules which govern the emergence of urban spaces. The paper outlines an attempt to detect and define the generative rules of a growing urban structure by means of evaluation techniques. The initial approach in this regards will be to study the evolution of existing urban regions or cities which in our case are Manhattan and Barcelona and investigate the rules and causes of their emergence and growth. The paper will concentrate on the spatial aspect of the generative rules and investigate their behaviour and dimensionality. Several Space Syntax evaluation methods will be implemented to capture the change of spatial configurations within the growing urban structures. In addition, certain spatial elements will be isolated and tested aiming to illustrate their influence on the main spatial structures. Both urban regions were found to be emergent products of a bottom up organic growth mostly distinguished in the vicinities of the first settlements. Despite the imposition of a uniform grid on both cities in later stages of their development these cities managed to deform the regularity in the preplanned grid in an emergent manner to end up with an efficient model embodied in their current spatial arrangement. The paper reveals several consistencies in the spatial morphology of both urban regions and provides explanation of these regularities in an approach to extract the underlying rules which contributed to the growth optimization process

Reduction of the phase jitter in differential phase-shift-keying soliton transmission systems by in-line Butterworth filters

We examine reduction of phase jitter by use of in-line Butterworth filters in soliton systems in the context of differential phase-shift-keying coding. We also demonstrate numerically that the use of a Butterworth filter in a return-to-zero differential phase-shift-keying system can reduce continuum background radiation

A Picture is Worth 150 Words: Using Wordle to Assess Library Instruction

Tired of the one minute paper and other quick and dirty assessment tools? By using word clouds, students can demonstrate their grasp of library fundamentals and information literacy concepts in less than 10 minutes. Wordle [http://www.wordle.net] is an extremely user-friendly online tool that provides an active learning activity for students and allows librarians to rapidly evaluate what students recall from the instruction session. Use it for quick assessment of student comprehension of library jargon or compare the students\u27 Wordle clouds with information literacy standards or the main points of your instruction. It\u27s free, flexible, and looks great on a t-shirt

Convergence of linear functionals of the Grenander estimator under misspecification

Under the assumption that the true density is decreasing, it is well known that the Grenander estimator converges at rate $n^{1/3}$ if the true density is curved [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 31 (1969) 23-36] and at rate $n^{1/2}$ if the density is flat [Ann. Probab. 11 (1983) 328-345; Canad. J. Statist. 27 (1999) 557-566]. In the case that the true density is misspecified, the results of Patilea [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 94-123] tell us that the global convergence rate is of order $n^{1/3}$ in Hellinger distance. Here, we show that the local convergence rate is $n^{1/2}$ at a point where the density is misspecified. This is not in contradiction with the results of Patilea [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 94-123]: the global convergence rate simply comes from locally curved well-specified regions. Furthermore, we study global convergence under misspecification by considering linear functionals. The rate of convergence is $n^{1/2}$ and we show that the limit is made up of two independent terms: a mean-zero Gaussian term and a second term (with nonzero mean) which is present only if the density has well-specified locally flat regions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1196 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Charge Imbalance and Bilayer 2D Electron Systems at νT=1\nu_T = 1

We use interlayer tunneling to study bilayer 2D electron systems at $\nu_T = 1$ over a wide range of charge density imbalance, $\Delta \nu =\nu_1-\nu_2$, between the two layers. We find that the strongly enhanced tunneling associated with the coherent excitonic $\nu_T = 1$ phase at small layer separation can survive at least up to an imbalance of $\Delta \nu$ = 0.5, i.e $(\nu_1, \nu_2)$ = (3/4, 1/4). Phase transitions between the excitonic $\nu_T = 1$ state and bilayer states which lack significant interlayer correlations can be induced in three different ways: by increasing the effective interlayer spacing $d/\ell$, the temperature $T$, or the charge imbalance, $\Delta \nu$. We observe that close to the phase boundary the coherent $\nu_T = 1$ phase can be absent at $\Delta \nu$ = 0, present at intermediate $\Delta \nu$, but then absent again at large $\Delta \nu$, thus indicating an intricate phase competition between it and incoherent quasi-independent layer states. At zero imbalance, the critical $d/\ell$ shifts linearly with temperature, while at $\Delta \nu$ = 1/3 the critical $d/\ell$ is only weakly dependent on $T$. At $\Delta \nu$ = 1/3 we report the first observation of a direct phase transition between the coherent excitonic $\nu_T = 1$ bilayer integer quantum Hall phase and the pair of single layer fractional quantized Hall states at $\nu_1$ = 2/3 and $\nu_2=1/3$.Comment: 13 pages, 8 postscript figures. Final published versio

Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework

Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) : Showcases for making science diplomacy

Science diplomacy can be defined as "the use of scientific collaborations between countries to address joint problems and to build constructive international partnerships for delivering effective scientific advice for policy making". During the last 10 years, the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) has been active in finding ways to solve global Grand Challenges, particularly climate change and poor air quality in polluted megacities, and at the same time, better bridge research to international climate policy and science diplomacy processes. INAR has introduced Pan-Eurasian Experiment programme running since the year 2012 (www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) to better address the scientific challenge to understand Atmosphere - Earth Surface - Biosphere interactions and feedbacks in the Northern Eurasian context. INAR has also launched a measurement concept called the Global Network of Stations Measuring Earth Surface and Atmosphere Interactions (GlobalSMEAR) and has hosted the European Centre of the International Eurasian Academy of Sciences since 2015. Most recently, INAR has coordinated the Arena for the gap analysis of the existing Arctic Science Co-Operations (AASCO), 2020-2021, to promote research with a holistic and integrated approach in understanding feedbacks and interactions globally and locally at the Arctic and outside the Arctic environments.Non peer reviewe