Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism

In this paper we explore the hierarchical nature of tourism demand time series and produce short-term forecasts for Australian domestic tourism. The data and forecasts are organized in a hierarchy based on disaggregating the data for different geographical regions and for different purposes of travel. We consider five approaches to hierarchical forecasting: two variations of the top-down approach, the bottom-up method, a newly proposed top-down approach where top-level forecasts are disaggregated according to forecasted proportions of lower level series, and a recently proposed optimal combination approach. Our forecast performance evaluation shows that the top-down approach based on forecast proportions and the optimal combination method perform best for the tourism hierarchies we consider. By applying these methods, we produce detailed forecasts for the Australian domestic tourism market.Australia, exponential smoothing, hierarchical forecasting, innovations state space models, optimal combination forecasts, top-down method, tourism demand.

Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series

In many applications, there are multiple time series that are hierarchically organized and can be aggregated at several different levels in groups based on products, geography or some other features. We call these "hierarchical time series". They are commonly forecast using either a "bottom-up" or a "top-down" method. In this paper we propose a new approach to hierarchical forecasting which provides optimal forecasts that are better than forecasts produced by either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Our method is based on independently forecasting all series at all levels of the hierarchy and then using a regression model to optimally combine and reconcile these forecasts. The resulting revised forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy, are unbiased and have minimum variance amongst all combination forecasts under some simple assumptions. We show in a simulation study that our method performs well compared to the top-down approach and the bottom-up method. It also allows us to construct prediction intervals for the resultant forecasts. Finally, we apply the method to forecasting Australian tourism demand where the data are disaggregated by purpose of visit and geographical region.Bottom-up forecasting, combining forecasts, GLS regression, hierarchical forecasting, Moore-Penrose inverse, reconciling forecasts, top-down forecasting.

Navigating Civil War through Youth Migration, Education, and Family Separation

Why did youth move from their trans-Himalayan villages at very young ages to attend school with the risk of prolonged family separation? An in-depth study of youth from rural trans-Himalayan villages who travelled to Kathmandu, capital of Nepal, to live and study at a (free) boarding school, funded by both national and international donors, provides a starting point to address this question. The “People’s War” from 1996 to 2006 in Nepal contextualizes the study, given that the Maoist insurgency in the Himalayan hinterland aimed to recruit youth to the rebel cause. The study of youth from the trans-Himalayan region living at the boarding school as students was conducted between April and July 2014 in Kathmandu. The youth arrived at the school between the ages of four and ten years, and did not see their families for several years after their arrival, given the significant distances between their villages and the associated costs of travel. Drawing on scholarship in children’s geographies, the narratives of these youth are employed to underscore their agency in these biographies of migration and better understand these difficult separations during political uncertainty and civil war.Qu’est-ce qui a motivé certaines jeunes personnes de quitter leurs villages trans-himalayens et de poursuivre leurs études dans le contexte d’une institution scolaire, avec le risque que cela comportait d’être séparé de leurs familles pour une période prolongée, et cela à un âge très précoce? Une étude en profondeur de jeunes personnes provenant de villages trans-himalayens ruraux, qui ont effectué le trajet jusqu’à la capitale Katmandu, afin d’y vivre et de faire leurs études à un pensionnat (gratuit) subventionné par des bénévoles nationaux ainsi qu’internationaux, constitue un point de départ pour aborder cette question. La « Guerre populaire » au Népal, qui a duré de 1996 jusqu’à 2006, fournit un contexte à l’étude, étant donné que l’insurrection maoïste dans l’arrière-pays himalayen avait pour but de recruter les jeunes à la cause des insurgés. Cette étude de jeunes personnes de la région trans-himalayenne, résidant au pensionnat en tant qu’étudiants, a été menée à Katmandu entre avril et juin 2014. Les jeunes, âgés de 4 à 10 ans à la date de leur arrivée à l’école, restaient sans voir leurs familles pendant plusieurs années après leur arrivée, en raison des distances considérables entre leurs villages et l’école, et les frais de voyage qui s’y associaient. En se basant sur les travaux universitaires en géographies des enfants, les récits de ces jeunes servent à mettre l’accent sur leur capacité d’action et d’initiative dans le contexte de ces biographies de migration, et à mieux comprendre la nature de ces séparations difficiles en période d’instabilité politique et de guerre civile

Influence of Rice Husk Ash Density on the Workability and Strength of Structural Concrete

Supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) have been known to improve the properties of fresh and hardened concrete, and at the same time enhance the sustainability of concrete. Rice husk Ash (RHA), is one such material, but has neither been widely studied nor applied in practice. This work investigated the effect of the density of RHA on the workability and compressive strength of fresh and hardened RHA-replaced concrete respectively. Cement was replaced with RHA in concrete by weight (RHA-W) and by volume (RHA-V) at steps of 0%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% and 30%. The 0% replacement was used as the reference point from which performances were measured. Results showed that unlike the characteristic of other established pozzolans, RHA significantly reduced the workability of wet concrete and the rate of compressive strength gain over curing time due to a high water demand that is caused by the increased volume of replaced concrete, which results from its low density. Workability reduced with increased replacement for both RHA-W and RHA-V. Replacements of above 15% were not possible for the RHA-W due to the high water demand. However, replacements of up to 30% were achieved for the RHA-V. RHA-W specimens achieved lower compressive strengths and were observed to gain strength at a lower rate over the 28 to 91-days period of curing compared to RHA-V specimens. This behavior was attributed to the shortage of water that is necessary for the hydration of cement and subsequent pozzolanic reaction, which is the basis of the contribution that is made to the strength and performance of concrete by SCMs. However, the compressive strengths achieved were above the study’s target concrete strength of class C32/40 at 91 days, which is among those classes that are listed as being durable and suitable for structural applications. A conclusion that RHA should supplement cements by volumetric replacement rather than simple substitution by weight was drawn

Elimination of the reaction rate 'scale effect': application of the Lagrangian reactive particle-tracking method to simulate mixing-limited, field-scale biodegradation at the Schoolcraft (MI, USA) site

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [Ding, D., Benson, D. A., Fernàndez‐Garcia, D., Henri, C. V., Hyndman, D. W., Phanikumar, M. S., & Bolster, D. (2017). Elimination of the reaction rate “scale effect”: Application of the Lagrangian reactive particle‐tracking method to simulate mixing‐limited, field‐scale biodegradation at the Schoolcraft (MI, USA) site. Water Resources Research, 53, 10,411–10,432. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021103], which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021103. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.Measured (or empirically fitted) reaction rates at groundwater remediation sites are typically much lower than those found in the same material at the batch or laboratory scale. The reduced rates are commonly attributed to poorer mixing at the larger scales. A variety of methods have been proposed to account for this scaling effect in reactive transport. In this study, we use the Lagrangian particle-tracking and reaction (PTR) method to simulate a field bioremediation experiment at the Schoolcraft, MI site. A denitrifying bacterium, Pseudomonas Stutzeri strain KC (KC), was injected to the aquifer, along with sufficient substrate, to degrade the contaminant, carbon tetrachloride (CT), under anaerobic conditions. The PTR method simulates chemical reactions through probabilistic rules of particle collisions, interactions, and transformations to address the scale effect (lower apparent reaction rates for each level of upscaling, from batch to column to field scale). In contrast to a prior Eulerian reaction model, the PTR method is able to match the field-scale experiment using the rate coefficients obtained from batch experiments.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Organizational Chart Inference

Nowadays, to facilitate the communication and cooperation among employees, a new family of online social networks has been adopted in many companies, which are called the "enterprise social networks" (ESNs). ESNs can provide employees with various professional services to help them deal with daily work issues. Meanwhile, employees in companies are usually organized into different hierarchies according to the relative ranks of their positions. The company internal management structure can be outlined with the organizational chart visually, which is normally confidential to the public out of the privacy and security concerns. In this paper, we want to study the IOC (Inference of Organizational Chart) problem to identify company internal organizational chart based on the heterogeneous online ESN launched in it. IOC is very challenging to address as, to guarantee smooth operations, the internal organizational charts of companies need to meet certain structural requirements (about its depth and width). To solve the IOC problem, a novel unsupervised method Create (ChArT REcovEr) is proposed in this paper, which consists of 3 steps: (1) social stratification of ESN users into different social classes, (2) supervision link inference from managers to subordinates, and (3) consecutive social classes matching to prune the redundant supervision links. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world online ESN dataset demonstrate that Create can perform very well in addressing the IOC problem.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. The paper is accepted by KDD 201

The Devon Island Expedition 1960-64

The establishment of the Arctic Institute's Devon Island Base Station and the progress of the research program in 1960 and 1961 were reported in brief summaries and preliminary field reports in Arctic 13:270-71 and 14:252-65, and a review of the research from September 1961 to September 1962 appeared in Arctic 15:317-320. Preliminary field reports for that period are presented here. ..

Assessing the effects of exposure timing on biomarker expression using β-estradiol

Temporal and spatial variability in estrogenicity has been documented formanytreated wastewater effluents with the consequences of this variability on the expression of biomarkers of endocrine disruption being largely unknown. Laboratory exposure studies usually utilize constant exposure concentrations which may produce biological effects that differ from those observed in organisms exposed in natural environments. In this study, we investigated the effects of differential timing of exposures with 17β - estradiol (E2) on a range of fathead minnow biomarkers to simulate diverse environmentally relevant exposure profiles. Two 21-day, replicate experiments were performed exposing mature male fathead minnows to E2 at time-weighted mean concentrations (similar average exposure to the contaminant during the 21-day exposure period; 17 ng E2/L experiment 1; 12 ng E2/L experiment 2) comparable to E2 equivalency values (EEQ) reported for several anthropogenically altered environments. A comparable time-weighted mean concentration of E2 was applied to five treatments which varied in the daily application schema: E2 was either applied at a steady rate (ST), in a gradual decreasing concentration (HI), a gradual increasing concentration (LO), applied intermittently (IN), or at a randomly varying concentration (VA). We assessed a range of widely used physiological (vitellogenin mRNA induction and plasma concentrations), anatomical (body and organ indices, secondary sex characteristics, and histopathology), and behavioral (nest holding) biomarkers reported to change following exposure to endocrine active compounds (EACs). All treatments responded with a rise in plasma vitellogenin concentration when compared with the ethanol carrier control. Predicatively, vitellogenin mRNA induction, which tracked closely with plasma vitellogenin concentrations in most treatments was not elevated in the HI treatment, presumably due to the lack of E2 exposure immediately prior to analysis. The ability of treatment male fish to hold nest sites in direct competition with control males was sensitive to E2 exposure and did yield statistically significant differences between treatments and carrier control. Other biological endpoints assessed in this study (organosomatic indices, secondary sex characteristics) varied little between treatments and controls. This study indicates that a broad suite of endpoints is necessary to fully assess the biological consequences of fish exposure to estrogens and that for at least field studies, a combination of vitellogenin mRNA and plasma vitellogenin analysis are most promising in deciphering exposure histories of wild-caught and caged fishes