Delineation of the forest-tundra ecotone using texture-based classification of satellite imagery

© 2020, © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. The transition zone between the boreal forest and Arctic tundra, the forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), is an area of high ecological and climatological significance. Despite its importance, a globally consistent high spatial resolution mapping is lacking. Accurate mapping of the FTE requires the use of satellite remote sensing data. Here we use the Landsat Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product and reference point data to derive the location and characteristics of the FTE. An image texture-based supervised classification scheme is developed based on a study area in Central Eurasia to statistically exploit the spatial patterns of the transition zone. Texture statistics for the VCF image are derived from the grey-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based on which the study area is classified into forest, tundra, and FTEs. Adaptive parameterization is implemented to achieve optimal classification performance in the study area. This method is further applied to six additional study areas around the circumarctic region to test its adaptability. In all study areas, this method achieves better FTE delineation results than previously reported methods, showing better classification accuracies (average of 0.826) and more realistic and complete representation of the FTE as shown by visual examination. This shows the universal applicability of the method and it is potential to be used to achieve more detailed and accurate circumarctic mapping of the FTE, which could serve as the basis of time series analysis of FTE positions, eventually contributing to a better understanding of the inter-relations between climate change and shifts in sub-arctic vegetation.Grant no. 260400/E10 and 244557/RI, Research Council of Norwa

The role of the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone for Arctic biodiversity

Accepted VersionThe arctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which links species communities of the boreal forest with those of the arctic tundra, is expected to respond swiftly to climate change with a profound reduction of tundra as the dominating scenario. With its circumarctic expanse and up to several hundred kilometres in width, the zone occupies a large part of the vegetated surface at high latitudes. Relocation and structural changes of the ecotone vegetation will affect not only plant but also animal and other biological diversity. A large number of arctic species are dependent on the forest–tundra ecotone in terms of food and habitat during parts of their life cycle or annual migration. In the ‘Arctic Species Trend Index’, developed to provide trends in arctic vertebrates, more than half of the species and data are from the forest–tundra ecotone. However, in assessments of arctic biodiversity, only the northernmost tundra-dominated areas of the ecotone are included. This is unfortunate and somewhat problematic since the treed part that serves as a source of seeds for new seedlings and saplings in the tundra-dominated part is excluded. This inconsistency hampers monitoring efficiency and biodiversity conservation efforts. During the International Polar Year, a large international research project on the forest–tundra ecotone established numerous sites around the circumpolar north where causes and consequences of vegetation change were analyzed. This network of sites and data forms an excellent basis for necessary monitoring of the spatial and temporal complexity of forest encroachment into tundra and its relation to arctic biodiversity

Effects of Warming on Shrub Abundance and Chemistry Drive Ecosystem-Level Changes in a Forest-Tundra Ecotone

Tundra vegetation is responding rapidly to on-going climate warming. The changes in plant abundance and chemistry might have cascading effects on tundra food webs, but an integrated understanding of how the responses vary between habitats and across environmental gradients is lacking. We assessed responses in plant abundance and plant chemistry to warmer climate, both at species and community levels, in two different habitats. We used a long-term and multisite warming (OTC) experiment in the Scandinavian forest–tundra ecotone to investigate (i) changes in plant community composition and (ii) responses in foliar nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon-based secondary compound concentrations in two dominant evergreen dwarf-shrubs (Empetrum hermaphroditum and Vaccinium vitis-idaea) and two deciduous shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus and Betula nana). We found that initial plant community composition, and the functional traits of these plants, will determine the responsiveness of the community composition, and thus community traits, to experimental warming. Although changes in plant chemistry within species were minor, alterations in plant community composition drive changes in community-level nutrient concentrations. In view of projected climate change, our results suggest that plant abundance will increase in the future, but nutrient concentrations in the tundra field layer vegetation will decrease. These effects are large enough to have knock-on consequences for major ecosystem processes like herbivory and nutrient cycling. The reduced food quality could lead to weaker trophic cascades and weaker top down control of plant community biomass and composition in the future. However, the opposite effects in forest indicate that these changes might be obscured by advancing treeline forests

Influence of Agronomic and Climatic Factors on Fusarium Infestation and Mycotoxin Contamination of Cereals in Norway

A total of 602 samples of organically and conventionally grown barley, oats and wheat was collected at grain harvest during 2002–2004 in Norway. Organic and conventional samples were comparable pairs regarding cereal species, growing site and harvest time, and were analysed for Fusarium mould and mycotoxins. Agronomic and climatic factors explained 10–30% of the variation in Fusarium species and mycotoxins. Significantly lower Fusarium infestation and concentrations of important mycotoxins were found in the organic cereals. The mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and HT-2 toxin (HT-2) constitute the main risk for human and animal health in Norwegian cereals. The impacts of various agronomic and climatic factors on DON and HT-2 as well as on their main producers F. graminearum and F. langsethiae and on total Fusarium were tested by multivariate statistics. Crop rotation with non-cereals was found to reduce all investigated characteristics significantly – mycotoxin concentrations as well as various Fusarium infestations. No use of mineral fertilisers and herbicides was also found to decrease F. graminearum, whereas lodged fields increased the occurrence of this species. No use of herbicides was also found to decrease F. langsethiae, but for this species the occurrence was lower in lodged fields. Total Fusarium infestation was decreased with no use of fungicides or mineral fertilisers, and with crop rotation, as well as by using herbicides and increased by lodged fields. Clay and to some extent silty soils seemed to reduce F. graminearum in comparison with sandy soils. Concerning climate factors, low temperature before grain harvest was found to increase DON; and high air humidity before harvest to increase HT-2. F. graminearum was negatively correlated with precipitation in July but correlated with air humidity before harvest. F. langsethiae was correlated with temperature in July. Total Fusarium increased with increasing precipitation in July. Organic cereal farmers have fewer cereal intense rotations than conventional farmers. Further, organic farmers do not apply mineral fertiliser or pesticides (fungicides, herbicides or insecticides), and have less problem with lodged fields. The study showed that these agronomic factors were related to the infestation of Fusarium species and the concentration of mycotoxins. Hence, it is reasonable to conclude that farming system (organic versus conventional) impacts Fusarium infestation, and that organic management tends to reduce Fusarium and mycotoxins. However, Fusarium infestation and mycotoxin concentrations may be influenced by a range of factors not studied here, such as local topography and more local climate, as well as cereal species and variety

Expansion of Canopy-Forming Willows Over the Twentieth Century on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

Canopy-forming shrubs are reported to be increasing at sites around the circumpolar Arctic. Our results indicate expansion in canopy cover and height of willows on Herschel Island located at 70° north on the western Arctic coast of the Yukon Territory. We examined historic photographs, repeated vegetation surveys, and conducted monitoring of long-term plots and found evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species (Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra), during the twentieth century. A simple model of patch initiation indicates that the majority of willow patches for each of these species became established between 1910 and 1960, with stem ages and maximum growth rates indicating that some patches could have established as late as the 1980s. Collectively, these results suggest that willow species are increasing in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island. We did not find evidence that expansion of willow patches is currently limited by herbivory, disease, or growing conditions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0168-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: a Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Published VersionRecent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical asso ciations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behav iours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being small est in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation dis tribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103–104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming