On Turkey's European Trade Policy: How Desirable is a Status Quo

International Relations/Trade,

An Open Economy Model of Political Influence and Competition Among Rent Seeking Groups

The paper develops a formal model of government's economic decisions as influenced by private agents within the context of neoclassical political economy. The government is assumed to form preferences over interest groups in the economy; in turn these preferences are influenced by the rent seeking behavior of these groups. An open, two-household, two-sector general equilibrium model is constructed to depict an environment in which preference-maximizing (rational) individuals allocate otherwise productive labor to directly unproductive rent seeking activities in order to exert political pressure on the government's choice of policy instruments. With the aid of five comparative-static experiments, the game-theoretic component and the second-best nature of the rent seeking environment is discussed. Insights are also provided on the influence of technological change, and changes in lobbying efficiency on resources allocated to rent seeking by interest groups. Key words: Rent Seeking, Political Economy, General Equilibrium.Political Economy,

An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns.Economics Models. ,Trade liberalization. ,Foreign trade Mathematical models. ,Agricultural trade. ,TMD ,

How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey

We utilize a multi-sector general equilibrium model based on intertemporally optimizing agents to study issues of trade liberalization and fiscal adjustments in the context of the Turkish economy. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of the distortionary consequences of excessive borrowing requirements of the public sector through increased domestic interest costs. The model results suggest that the postponement of adjustment to growing public debt and fiscal imbalances could be detrimental; and that in the absence of coordinated fiscal reforms, the welfare gains expected from trade liberalization may significantly be negated.International Relations/Trade,

Structural Adjustment and Trade in Turkey: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Export-Led Versus Domestic Demand-Led Strategies of Development

This paper attempts to assess the feasibility of the current strategy of manufactured export-led growth for Turkey over the Fifth and Sixth Five-Year Plan periods (1985-1994). The explicit hypothesis of the paper is that a domestic market, wage-goods oriented development strategy with agriculture leading the process will be more conducive to Turkey's long-term economic growth, as compared to an export-oriented strategy. The simulation experiments are conducted with the aid of a dynamic micro-planning model which belongs to a class of price-endogenous constructs known as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The model as applied to Turkey distinguishes seven economic sectors, four types of labor, three consumer groups, seven social classes, and a government. In addition, it accommodates both fixed and flexible wages along with a disequilibrium mechanism of labor allocation, endogenous rural-urban migration, international trade flows with government intervention, and separate rules of allocation for the private -versus- public fixed investment. The overall conclusion that is supported by this study is that by combining a time-wise regressive, selective export-promotion program with a domestic demand oriented, wage-goods strategy, Turkey can achieve a superior growth performance over the current strategy of manufactured export-led industrialization. The model results further emphasize the pressing need for the revitalization of the domestic demand, and the importance of the agricultural productivity growth in promoting Turkey's overall objectives of industrialization, income equity, and foreign trade over the Fifth and Sixth Plan periods.International Development, International Relations/Trade,

A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Development Policy Analysis

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Political Economy Perspectives on the 1994 Turkish Economic Crisis: A CGE Modeling Analysis

This paper investigates the role of the deterioration of the Turkish public sector balances in the latter half of the 1980's and the evolution of the economic crisis with the aid of a computable general equilibrium model. The theoretical basis of the model utilized in the paper rests upon the Walrasian and the Structuralist/Keynesian macro foundations. The model recognizes 15 production sectors, 3 socio-economic income groups and a central government; and simulates the production, income distribution, consumption, capital accumulation and foreign trade processes of the national economy within a simultaneous system of algebraic equations. The distinguishing feature of the model is that, it accommodates monopolistic mark-up pricing rules in the industrial sectors, and endogenously solves for capacity utilization and unemployment level through Keynesian mechanisms of effective final demand. The model investigates the evolution of the crisis under three main headings: (i) the role of the financial crisis and the unprecedented deficit in the public sector balances; (ii) the roles of the foreign borrowing strategy of the state and the short term foreign capital inflows on balance of payments and the foreign exchange rate; and (iii) the role of the political-economic relations of income distribution and inflationary processes emanating from real wage increases and non-competitive pricing behavior in the industrial sectors. The general equilibrium results of the model underscore the importance of intra-class relations of income distribution and conflict in the evolution of price movements in the Turkish economy; and suggest that the sources of the crisis lie in the historical role of the administrative interventions of the state towards protection of the capitalist and rural incomes, which would otherwise be squeezed out in favor of wage-labor in the late-1980's.Political Economy,

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Turkey’s Economy and a Policy Alternative to Protect Labor Incomes

The COVID-19 pandemic is being experienced as a multidimensional systemic crisis based on the simultaneous manifestations of the supply, demand, and financial shocks. These effects have already been realized in the exacerbation of deep inequalities in income distribution, in functional, regional, and gender terms; in access to public services that are commercialized; and therefore, in an environment where poverty is experienced with social exclusion due to severe inequalities of income. The crisis has hit the Turkish economy under a conjuncture where the adverse effects of the 2018 financial turbulence have not yet been alleviated, and the macroeconomic balances have not been resolved in a sustained fashion. Turkey has displayed already high rates of unemployment (at the rate of 13.6%) and inflation (11%) by the end of 2019. Projections by the IMF also reveal that as a result of the economic measures of isolation and employment disruption, Turkey’s GDP will likely contract by 5% in 2020. Given this background, our aim in this study is to analyze the upon-impact effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on Turkish economy and to investigate policy alternatives that can be implemented against these impacts. We utilize a macroeconomic applied general equilibrium model designed for this purpose; and examine the effects of the crisis conjuncture caused by the COVID-19 outbreak on sectoral production, employment, wages, and capital revenues, national income, and foreign trade balances. Then, we provide an analysis of defensive policies that can be developed against the crisis

A Dynamic CGE Model: An Application of R&D- Based Endogenous Growth Model Theory

An R&D based endogenous growth - applied general equilibrium model is developed from an underlying analytical model which combines Romer's capital variety with Grossman and Helpman's multi-sector open economy model. The transitional dynamics of the analytical model are derived. For numerical implementation, a time discrete empirical model, with an Armington structure, is fit to East Asian data of the social accounting matrix variety. Simulations of trade reform are performed and their static and dynamic effects compared. The transition paths of the state variables are found to have a half-life of five to six periods. A solution of the Social Planner's problem, and interventions which seek to obtain this outcome from the decentralized model are also obtained'.Applied General Equilibrium, Trade, Growth, International Relations/Trade, F11, 031, 041,

How to Go Green? A General Equilibrium Investigation of Environmental policies for Sustained Growth with an Application to Turkey

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Green growth is a relatively new concept aimed at focusing attention on achieving sustainable development through the efficient use of environmental assets without slowing economic growth. This paper presents a real-world application of the concept, and identifies viable policy options for achieving a complementary environmental regulatory framework that minimizes output and employment losses. The analysis utilizes macro level data from the Turkish economy, and develops an applied general equilibrium model to assess the impact of a selected number of green policy instruments and public policy intervention mechanisms, including market-based incentives designed to accelerate technology adoption and achieve higher employment and sustainable growth patterns. Overall, our results indicate that an integrated employment and urban greening policy strategy that combines a green jobs programme with a set of earmarked tax-cum-innovation policies towards R&D-driven growth, mainly targeted to strategic industrial sectors and agriculture, developing market economies can achieve significant reductions in gaseous emissions and urban waste while maintaining significant gains in productivity and employment. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg