Modelling the cost effectiveness of interferon beta and glatiramer acetate in the management of multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of four disease modifying treatments (interferon betas and glatiramer acetate) for relapsing remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Modelling cost effectiveness. SETTING: UK NHS. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality adjusted life year gained. RESULTS: The base case cost per quality adjusted life year gained by using any of the four treatments ranged from £42 000 ($66 469; 61 630) to £98 000 based on efficacy information in the public domain. Uncertainty analysis suggests that the probability of any of these treatments having a cost effectiveness better than £20 000 at 20 years is below 20%. The key determinants of cost effectiveness were the time horizon, the progression of patients after stopping treatment, differential discount rates, and the price of the treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Cost effectiveness varied markedly between the interventions. Uncertainty around point estimates was substantial. This uncertainty could be reduced by conducting research on the true magnitude of the effect of these drugs, the progression of patients after stopping treatment, the costs of care, and the quality of life of the patients. Price was the key modifiable determinant of the cost effectiveness of these treatments

Choice and judgement in developing models for health technology assessment; a qualitative study

Introduction: The role of models in supporting health policy decisions is reliant on model credibility. Credibility is fundamentally determined by the choices and judgements that people make in the process of developing a model. However, the method of uncovering choices and making judgements in model development is largely unreported and is not addressed by modelling methods guidance. Methods: This qualitative study was part of a project examining errors in health technology assessment models. In-depth interviews with academic and commercial modellers were used to obtain descriptions of the model development process. Data were analysed using framework analysis and interpreted in the context of the methodological literature. Results: The activities involved in developing models were characterised according to the themes; understanding the decision problem, conceptual modelling, model implementation, model checking, and engaging with the decision maker. Finding and using evidence was frequently mentioned across these themes. There was marked variation between practitioners in the extent to which conceptual modelling was recognised as an activity distinct from model implementation. Discussion: Methodological approaches to addressing model credibility described in the wider modelling literature highlight the necessity to disentangle the conceptual modelling and implementation activities. Whilst interviewees talked of judgements and choice making throughout model development, discussion indicated that these were based upon skills and experience with no discussion of formal approaches. Methods are required that provide for a systematic approach to uncovering choices, to generating a shared view of consensus and divergence, and for making judgements and choices in model development

Proceed with caution: an economic perspective on the UK's value based pricing proposals

The shift from the Pharmaceutical Pricing Regulation Scheme to Value Based Pricing (VBP) is an important change in the way that medicines will be priced, and consequently, reimbursed in the United Kingdom. Whilst the opportunity to purchase new medicines based on value to society is one that should be welcomed, we should proceed with caution. We highlight ten issues that should be considered relating to innovation, the role and meaning of funding threshold and the adjustments to reflect burden of illness, therapeutic innovation and improvement and wider societal factors. Most importantly, the assessment of value should continue to be based on the characteristics of the displaced activities (e.g. the health produced). To a large extent, all that is changing under VBP are the characteristics being considered; weighted health rather than unweighted health. In addition, we should not totally abandon a cost-utility framework for appraisal just because its current formulation does not match the wider perspective now desired by government

Critical Role of Nutrition in Improving Quality of Care: An Interdisciplinary Call to Action to Address Adult Hospital Malnutrition

AbstractThe current era of health care delivery, with its focus on providing high-quality, affordable care, presents many challenges to hospital-based health professionals. The prevention and treatment of hospital malnutrition offers a tremendous opportunity to optimize the overall quality of patient care, improve clinical outcomes, and reduce costs. Unfortunately, malnutrition continues to go unrecognized and untreated in many hospitalized patients. This article represents a call to action from the interdisciplinary Alliance to Advance Patient Nutrition to highlight the critical role of nutrition intervention in clinical care and to suggest practical ways to promptly diagnose and treat malnourished patients and those at risk for malnutrition. We underscore the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to addressing malnutrition both in the hospital and in the acute post-hospital phase. It is well recognized that malnutrition is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Although data vary across studies, available evidence shows that early nutrition intervention can reduce complication rates, length of hospital stay, readmission rates, mortality, and cost of care. The key is to systematically identify patients who are malnourished or at risk and to promptly intervene. We present a novel care model to drive improvement, emphasizing the following six principles: (1) create an institutional culture where all stakeholders value nutrition; (2) redefine clinicians' roles to include nutrition care; (3) recognize and diagnose all malnourished patients and those at risk; (4) rapidly implement comprehensive nutrition interventions and continued monitoring; (5) communicate nutrition care plans; and (6) develop a comprehensive discharge nutrition care and education plan

A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer

Background: Tumour response endpoints, such as overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR), are increasingly used in cancer trials. However, the validity of response-based surrogates is unclear. This systematic review summarises meta-analyses assessing the association between response-based outcomes and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or time-to-progression (TTP). Methods: Five databases were searched to March 2019. Meta-analyses reporting correlation or regression between response-based outcomes and OS, PFS or TTP were summarised. Results: The systematic review included 63 studies across 20 cancer types, most commonly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer. The strength of association between ORR or CR and either PFS or OS varied widely between and within studies, with no clear pattern by cancer type. The association between ORR and OS appeared weaker and more variable than that between ORR and PFS, both for associations between absolute endpoints and associations between treatment effects. Conclusions: This systematic review suggests that response-based endpoints such as ORR and CR may not be reliable surrogates for PFS or OS. Where it is necessary to use tumour response to predict treatment effects on survival outcomes, it is important to fully reflect all statistical uncertainty in the surrogate relationship

An Early Health Economic Analysis of the Potential Cost Effectiveness of an Adherence Intervention to Improve Outcomes for Patients with Cystic Fibrosis

Background Cystic fibrosis (CF) negatively impacts upon health-related quality of life and survival. Adherence to nebulised treatments is low; improving adherence is hypothesised to reduce rates of exacerbation requiring intravenous antibiotics and lung function decline. Objective A state transition model was developed to assess the cost effectiveness of an intervention aimed at increasing patient adherence to nebulised and inhaled antibiotics compared with current CF care, in advance of the forthcoming CFHealthHub randomised controlled trial (RCT). Methods The model estimated the costs and health outcomes for each option from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. Health gains were valued in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) trajectories were predicted over three lung function strata: (1) FEV1 ≥70%, (2) FEV1 40–69% and (3) FEV1 <40%. Additional states were included to represent ‘post-lung transplantation’ and ‘dead’. The model was populated using CF Registry data, literature and expert opinion. Costs were presented at 2016 values. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results If effective, the adherence intervention is expected to produce an additional 0.19 QALYs and cost savings of £64,078 per patient. Across all analyses, the intervention dominated current care. Over a 5-year period, the intervention is expected to generate cost savings of £49.5 million for the estimated 2979 patients with CF with Pseudomonas aeruginosa currently aged ≥16 years in the UK. If applied to a broader population of adult patients with CF receiving any nebulised therapy, the expected savings could be considerably greater. Conclusions If effective, the adherence intervention is expected to produce additional health gains at a lower cost than current CF care. However, the economic analysis should be revisited upon completion of the full RCT. More generally, the analysis suggests that considerable gains could be accrued through the implementation of adherence interventions that shift care from expensive hospital-based rescue to community-based prevention

The type and impact of Evidence Review Group (ERG) exploratory analyses in the NICE Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process

Background: As part of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal process, independent evidence review groups (ERGs) critically appraise a company's submission relating to a specific technology and indication. Objectives: To explore the type of additional exploratory analyses conducted by ERGs and their impact on the recommendations made by NICE. Methods: The 100 most recently completed single technology appraisals with published guidance were selected for inclusion. A content analysis of relevant documents was undertaken to identify and extract relevant data, and narrative synthesis was used to rationalize and present these data. Results: The types of exploratory analysis conducted in relation to companies' models were fixing errors, addressing violations, addressing matters of judgment, and the provision of a new, ERG-preferred base case. Ninety-three of the 100 ERG reports contained at least one of these analyses. The most frequently reported type of analysis in these 93 ERG reports related to the category Matters of judgment, which was reported in 83 reports (89%). At least one of the exploratory analyses conducted and reported by an ERG is mentioned in 97% of NICE appraisal consultation documents and 94% of NICE final appraisal determinations, and had a clear influence on recommendations in 72% of appraisal consultation documents and 47% of final appraisal determinations. Conclusions: These results suggest that the additional analyses undertaken by ERGs in the appraisal of company submissions are highly influential in the policy-making and decision-making process

Mathematical practice, crowdsourcing, and social machines

The highest level of mathematics has traditionally been seen as a solitary endeavour, to produce a proof for review and acceptance by research peers. Mathematics is now at a remarkable inflexion point, with new technology radically extending the power and limits of individuals. Crowdsourcing pulls together diverse experts to solve problems; symbolic computation tackles huge routine calculations; and computers check proofs too long and complicated for humans to comprehend. Mathematical practice is an emerging interdisciplinary field which draws on philosophy and social science to understand how mathematics is produced. Online mathematical activity provides a novel and rich source of data for empirical investigation of mathematical practice - for example the community question answering system {\it mathoverflow} contains around 40,000 mathematical conversations, and {\it polymath} collaborations provide transcripts of the process of discovering proofs. Our preliminary investigations have demonstrated the importance of "soft" aspects such as analogy and creativity, alongside deduction and proof, in the production of mathematics, and have given us new ways to think about the roles of people and machines in creating new mathematical knowledge. We discuss further investigation of these resources and what it might reveal. Crowdsourced mathematical activity is an example of a "social machine", a new paradigm, identified by Berners-Lee, for viewing a combination of people and computers as a single problem-solving entity, and the subject of major international research endeavours. We outline a future research agenda for mathematics social machines, a combination of people, computers, and mathematical archives to create and apply mathematics, with the potential to change the way people do mathematics, and to transform the reach, pace, and impact of mathematics research.Comment: To appear, Springer LNCS, Proceedings of Conferences on Intelligent Computer Mathematics, CICM 2013, July 2013 Bath, U

Evidence-based recommendations for addressing malnutrition in health care: An updated strategy from the feedM.E. global study group

The prevalence of malnutrition ranges up to 50% among patients in hospitals worldwide, and diseaserelated malnutrition is all too common in long-term and other health care settings as well. Regrettably, the numbers have not improved over the past decade. The consequences of malnutrition are serious, including increased complications (pressure ulcers, infections, falls), longer hospital stays, more frequent readmissions, increased costs of care, and higher risk of mortality. Yet disease-related malnutrition still goes unrecognized and undertreated. To help improve nutrition care around the world, the feedM.E. (Medical Education) Global Study Group, including members from Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North and South America, defines a Nutrition Care Pathway that is simple and can be tailored for use in varied health care settings. The Pathway recommends screen, intervene, and supervene: screen patients' nutrition status on admission or initiation of care, intervene promptly when needed, and supervene or follow-up routinely with adjustment and reinforcement of nutrition care plans. This article is a call-to-action for health caregivers worldwide to increase attention to nutrition care. (C) 2014 AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine