Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Structural Integrity of Functionally Graded Composite Structure using Mindlin-Type Finite Elements.

In this paper, two new Mindlin-type plate bending elements have been derived for the modelling of functionally graded plate subjected to various loading conditions such as tensile loading, in-plane bending and out-of-plane bending. The properties of the first Mindlin-type element (i.e. Average Mindlin element) are computed by using an average fibre distribution technique which averages the macro-mechanical properties over each element. The properties of the second Mindlin-type element (i.e. Smooth Mindlin element) are computed by using a smooth fibre distribution technique, which directly uses the macro-mechanical properties at Gaussian quadrature points of each element. There were two types of non-linearity considered in the modelling of the plate, which include finite strain and material degradation. The composite plate considered in this paper is functionally graded in the longitudinal direction only, but the FE code developed is capable of analysing composite plates with functional gradation in transverse and radial direction as well. This study was able to show that the structural integrity enhancement and strength maximisation of composite structures are achievable through functional gradation of material properties over the structure

IMPACT OF TEAM WORK ON TERTIARY INSTITUTION PERFORMANCE: A STUDY OF SELECTED COLLEGES IN FUNAAB

Successful teamwork is being recognized as a necessity for many aspects of effective administrative assignments and team-leadership has proved effective in improving team performance. Using two management-related colleges of Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta (FUNAAB) as organization of study, ninety respondents were sampled through the use of questionnaire. It was concluded after analysis that the practice of team-working is and should be embraced by corporate organizations, especially tertiary institution i.e. the more collectively engaged staff members are, the better the outcomes for the organization generally. Likewise it was also concluded that working in well-structured teams with an effective team-leader is a predictors of both individual and collective performance. The recommendation among others was that other institutions (private/ public) in the education sector should emulate the FUNAAB team-working initiative in order to continually and effectively meet their corporate obligations. Keywords:, , &nbsp

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Incidence of Poverty: An Experience from Africa

This study investigates the effects of agricultural productivity growth on poverty.  Using Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) data covering two decades (1971-2009) we determined the relationship between agricultural productivity and poverty. Malmquist Index Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was used as indicator of agricultural productivity while Human Development Index (HDI) was adopted as proxy for poverty. Further analysis was carried out to determine whether the performance of factor productivity is due to change in technology or technical efficiency. The result of Malmquist TFP index analysis showed that the average TFP growth over the period was found to be 0.2 percent per annum with large variation in growth rate across the sampled countries.  Twenty-two countries representing about 52% of the total sample experienced productivity growth and this is largely due to technological change.  Congo and Somalia experienced decline in growth and this may be attributed to the incidence of war and civil unrest which have adverse effect on growth.  Overall, the continent experienced improvement in technology with 2.1 percent upward shift in the production frontier and 1.8 percent decline in efficiency.  Regional comparison of agricultural productivity growth reveals that East, South and North Africa experienced growth of 3.3, 2.6 and 3.6 percent respectively.  There were declines in agricultural productivity in West and Southern Africa regions as a result of reduction in efficiency. The analysis of agricultural productivity growth on poverty shows a positive and significant relationship between indicators of the two variables.  Specifically, the result indicates that a unit increase in productivity growth will lead to 0.69 percent change in human development index and conversely poverty.  Further analysis revealed that the unit improvement in technological change will cause about 1.3 percent improvement in human development index. The study concludes that agricultural productivity growth is pro-poor and effective strategy to reduce poverty in Africa.  It is recommended that relevant policies to address the constraints to technology progress and efficiency should be promoted to improve productivity growth and reduce poverty. Key Words: Malmquist index, Total Factor Productivity, Technology, Efficiency, Agricultural Productivity, Poverty, Africa

Construction practitioners’ perception of key drivers of reputation in mega-construction projects

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to commence the discourse on the non-inclusiveness of the dynamics of reputation within the construction industry by identifying and examining the key product and process drivers of reputation in mega-construction projects. Design/methodology/approach: Data was collected through an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach which commences with a qualitative study and culminates with a quantitative study to identify product and process drivers of reputation in mega-construction projects. Findings: The findings suggest that “project quality”, “robust social and environmental sustainability plan”, “project team competence and interpersonal relationship” and “project process efficacy” are the four key drivers influencing the reputation of mega-construction projects. Research limitations/implications: The findings of this study are solely based on the perception of UK construction practitioners; therefore, the results may only be considered valid in this context. The identification of these key drivers provides a pathway where stakeholders, professionals and organisations can identify and prioritise critical issues associated with enhancing and sustaining the reputation of mega-construction projects. Originality/value: Findings of this research make a significant contribution to the discourse on the concept of reputation within the construction industry by identifying its specific drivers of reputation

Critical factors for insolvency prediction: Towards a theoretical model for the construction industry

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Many construction industry insolvency prediction model (CI-IPM) studies have arbitrarily employed or simply adopted from previous studies different insolvency factors, without justification, leading to poorly performing CI-IPMs. This is due to the absence of a framework for selection of relevant factors. To identify the most important insolvency factors for a high-performance CI-IPM, this study used three approaches. Firstly, systematic review was used to identify all existing factors. Secondly, frequency of factor use and accuracy of models in the reviewed studies were analysed to establish the important factors. Finally, using a questionnaire survey of CI professionals, the importance levels of factors were validated using the Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient and significant index ranking. The findings show that the important quantitative factors are profitability, liquidity, leverage, management efficiency and cash flow. While important qualitative factors are management/owner characteristics, internal strategy, management decision making, macroeconomic firm characteristics and sustainability. These factors, which align with existing insolvency-related theories, including Porter's five competitive forces and Mintzberg's 5Ps (plan, ploy, pattern, position and perspective) of strategy, were used to develop a theoretical framework. This study contributes to the debate on the need to amalgamate qualitative and quantitative factors to develop a valid CI-IPM

SUBSURFACE FLOW CONSTRUCTED WETLAND SYSTEM VEGETATED WITH PHRAGMITES KARKA IN THE TREATMENT OF DYE-RICH WASTEWATER

Some major parts of tropical Africa, especially in West Africa are nowadays grappling with the problem of degradation of the quality of fresh water by the introduction of effluents containing dyes from textile industries. In this study a low cost and economical method of treating dye-rich effluent using locally available macrophyte was investigated. The pilot Constructed Wetland (CW) consists of 1200 × 1000 × 1000 mm plastic tanks, filled with 500 mm deep 10-15 mm size granite overlaid with 150 mm thick sand (Cu = 1.15 and Cc = 6.8) substrate. The substrates had an hydraulic conductivity of 0.002 m/s. The pilot CW was planted with Phragmites Karka Retz. at 200 mm c/c to provide a high density bed. Irrigation was done intermittently at 6 days retention period with 0.05 m3 indigo dye rich wastewater from the local tie and dye textile industries and plant growth monitored. Physico-chemical parameters, Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn and Fe removal were also evaluated. The study revealed a 24 % growth rate reduction in the plants irrigated with indigo dye-rich wastewater. Reduction of TDS (50 %), TSS (66 %), EC (46 %) were also observed and the heavy metals evaluated showed an uptake of 64 %, 68 %, 78 %, 58 %, and 68 % for Cr, Pb, Zn, Cu, and Fe respectively by the CW. Phragmites karka as a macrophyte in Constructed Wetland was found to be efficient in dye-rich wastewater treatment.     &nbsp

Surface spin dynamics of antiferromagnetically coupled frustrated triangular films

Results are presented for spin-wave dispersions in geometrically frustrated stacked triangular antiferromagnets with a thin film or semi-infinite geometry having either zero, easy-plane, or easy-axis anisotropy. Surface effects on the equilibrium spin configurations and excitation spectrum are investigated for the case of antiferromagnetically coupled films, serving to extend previous results on ferromagnetically coupled layers [E. Meloche et al., Phys. Rev. B 74, 094424 (2006)]. An operator equation of motion formalism is applied to systems which are quasi-one and quasi-two dimensional in character. In contrast to the case of ferromagnetically coupled films the new results show surface modes that are well separated in frequency from bulk excitations. Magnetic excitations in thin films with an even or an odd number of layers show qualitatively different behavior. These results are relevant for a wide variety of stacked triangular antiferromagnetics materials.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

The Effect of Marketing Strategies on Corporate Performance of Estate Surveying and Valuation Firms in Kaduna Metropolis of Nigeria

The issue of marketing management has been of little concerned to most real estate surveying and valuation firms in Nigeria in the time past probably because of the limited number of firms jostling for work then. Many of them were of the erroneous opinion that marketing was not more than mere letting or selling of properties and which does not require more than either placing of advertisement in the newspapers or hanging of “for sale” or “to let” boards on such properties to sell or let. It was this erroneous belief which was responsible for the property industry being lagged behind in performance when compared with most other industries especially the consumer goods and service industries. This study is set out to examine marketing strategies being adopted by estate surveying and valuation firms practising in Kaduna metropolis and how such strategies impact their corporate performance. To achieve the objective of the study, structured questionnaires were administered on estate surveying firms operating within the metropolis and the retrieved questionnaires were subsequently analysed with the aid of simple statistical techniques. The study revealed that there is a positive relationship between marketing strategies adopted and corporate performance of the firms. The study recommends the practising estate firms should employ aggressive marketing strategies at driving their products and services with a view to making their existence more known