Моделирование рейтингов российских банков

The paper presents econometric analysis of the of Russian banks ratings, and the experts’ opinion based on a survey, designed in a framework of the project. From the ratings and the survey we derived the factors that in the experts’ opinion and in the rating agencies’ opinion are most important for bank reliability. The models of the ratings and experts’ opinions were designed for real and virtual banks. We constructed the model ratings of the Russian banks. These models use only publicly available information and hence could be used as an early warning system of the current bank reliability

Моделирование рейтингов российских банков

The paper presents econometric analysis of the of Russian banks ratings, and the experts’ opinion based on a survey, designed in a framework of the project. From the ratings and the survey we derived the factors that in the experts’ opinion and in the rating agencies’ opinion are most important for bank reliability. The models of the ratings and experts’ opinions were designed for real and virtual banks. We constructed the model ratings of the Russian banks. These models use only publicly available information and hence could be used as an early warning system of the current bank reliability

Statistics of transmission in one-dimensional disordered systems: universal characteristics of states in the fluctuation tails

We numerically study the distribution function of the conductance (transmission) in the one-dimensional tight-binding Anderson and periodic-on-average superlattice models in the region of fluctuation states where single parameter scaling is not valid. We show that the scaling properties of the distribution function depend upon the relation between the system's length $L$ and the length $l_s$ determined by the integral density of states. For long enough systems, $L \gg l_s$, the distribution can still be described within a new scaling approach based upon the ratio of the localization length $l_{loc}$ and $l_s$. In an intermediate interval of the system's length $L$, $l_{loc}\ll L\ll l_s$, the variance of the Lyapunov exponent does not follow the predictions of the central limit theorem and this scaling becomes invalid.Comment: 22 pages, 12 eps figure

Phylogenetic Relationships of the Marine Haplosclerida (Phylum Porifera) Employing Ribosomal (28S rRNA) and Mitochondrial (cox1, nad1) Gene Sequence Data

The systematics of the poriferan Order Haplosclerida (Class Demospongiae) has been under scrutiny for a number of years without resolution. Molecular data suggests that the order needs revision at all taxonomic levels. Here, we provide a comprehensive view of the phylogenetic relationships of the marine Haplosclerida using many species from across the order, and three gene regions. Gene trees generated using 28S rRNA, nad1 and cox1 gene data, under maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, are highly congruent and suggest the presence of four clades. Clade A is comprised primarily of species of Haliclona and Callyspongia, and clade B is comprised of H. simulans and H. vansoesti (Family Chalinidae), Amphimedon queenslandica (Family Niphatidae) and Tabulocalyx (Family Phloeodictyidae), Clade C is comprised primarily of members of the Families Petrosiidae and Niphatidae, while Clade D is comprised of Aka species. The polyphletic nature of the suborders, families and genera described in other studies is also found here

How Sensitive are Retirement Decisions to Financial Incentives: A Stated Preference Analysis

We study effects of financial incentives on the retirement age using stated preference data. Dutch survey respondents were given hypothetical retirement scenarios describing age(s) of (partial and full) retirement and replacement rate(s). A structural model is estimated in which utility is the discounted sum of within period utilities that depend on employment status and income. Parameters of the utility function vary with observed and unobserved characteristics. Simulations show that the income and substitution effects of pensions as a function of the retirement age are substantial and larger than according to studies using data on actual retirement decisions

Two Steps Forward - One Step Back? Evaluating Contradicting Child Care Policies in Germany

We apply a structural model of mothers' labor supply and child care choices to evaluate the effects of two childcare reforms in Germany that were introduced simultaneously in August 2013. First, a legal claim to subsidized child care became effective for all children aged one year or older. Second, a new benefit called 'Betreuungsgeld' came into effect that is granted to families who do not use public or publicly subsidized child care. Both reforms target children of the same age group and are unconditional on the parents' income or employment status, yet affect mothers' incentives for labor supply and child care choices in opposite directions. Our model facilitates estimating the joint reform impact as well as disentangling the individual effects of both policies. A comprehensive data set with information on labor supply, the use of and potential access restrictions to various child care arrangements provides the basis for the empirical analysis. We find the overall effect of both reforms to be small but positive as far as mother's labor supply and the use of formal care is concerned. The legal claim's positive impact on mothers' labor supply and the use of formal child care is largely offset by the negative effect on both outcomes resulting from the introduction of the 'Betreuungsgeld'

Molecular Phylogeny of the Astrophorida (Porifera, Demospongiaep) Reveals an Unexpected High Level of Spicule Homoplasy

Background: The Astrophorida (Porifera, Demospongiae(rho)) is geographically and bathymetrically widely distributed. Systema Porifera currently includes five families in this order: Ancorinidae, Calthropellidae, Geodiidae, Pachastrellidae and Thrombidae. To date, molecular phylogenetic studies including Astrophorida species are scarce and offer limited sampling. Phylogenetic relationships within this order are therefore for the most part unknown and hypotheses based on morphology largely untested. Astrophorida taxa have very diverse spicule sets that make them a model of choice to investigate spicule evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings: With a sampling of 153 specimens (9 families, 29 genera, 89 species) covering the deep- and shallow-waters worldwide, this work presents the first comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the Astrophorida, using a cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene partial sequence and the 59 end terminal part of the 28S rDNA gene (C1-D2 domains). The resulting tree suggested that i) the Astrophorida included some lithistid families and some Alectonidae species, ii) the sub-orders Euastrophorida and Streptosclerophorida were both polyphyletic, iii) the Geodiidae, the Ancorinidae and the Pachastrellidae were not monophyletic, iv) the Calthropellidae was part of the Geodiidae clade (Calthropella at least), and finally that v) many genera were polyphyletic (Ecionemia, Erylus, Poecillastra, Penares, Rhabdastrella, Stelletta and Vulcanella). Conclusion: The Astrophorida is a larger order than previously considered, comprising ca. 820 species. Based on these results, we propose new classifications for the Astrophorida using both the classical rank-based nomenclature (i.e., Linnaean classification) and the phylogenetic nomenclature following the PhyloCode, independent of taxonomic rank. A key to the Astrophorida families, sub-families and genera incertae sedis is also included. Incongruences between our molecular tree and the current classification can be explained by the banality of convergent evolution and secondary loss in spicule evolution. These processes have taken place many times, in all the major clades, for megascleres and microscleres