Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues--particularly in highly aid-dependent countries--and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?

External aid, Volatility, Predictability, IMF-supported programs

Explaining Africa’s public consumption procyclicality : revisiting old evidence

This paper compiles a novel dataset of time-varying measures of government consumption cyclicality for a panel of 46 African economies between 1960 and 2014. Government consumption has, generally, been highly procyclical over time in this group of countries. However, sample averages hide serious heterogeneity across countries with the majority of them showing procyclical behavior despite some positive signs of graduation from the “procyclicality trap” in a few cases. By means of weighted least squares regressions, we find that more developed African economies tend to have a smaller degree of government consumption procyclicality. Countries with higher social fragmentation and those are more reliant on foreign aid inflows tend to have a more procyclical government consumption policy. Better governance promotes counter- cyclical fiscal policy whileincreased democracy dampens it. Finally, some fiscal rules are important in curbing the procyclical behavior of government consumption.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The African Political Business Cycle: Varieties of Experience

We seek to understand both the incidence and the impact of the African political business cycle in the light of a literature which has argued that, with major extensions of democracy since the 1990s, the cycle has both become more intense and has made African political systems more fragile. With the help of country-case studies, we argue, first, that the African political business cycle is not homogeneous, and occurs relatively infrequently in so-called ‘dominant-party systems’ where a pre-election stimulus confers little political advantage. Secondly, we show that, in those countries where a political cycle does occur, it does not necessarily cause institutional damage. Whether it does or not depends not so much on whether there is an electoral cycle as on whether this cycle calms or exacerbates fears of an unjust allocation of resources. In other words, the composition of the pre-election stimulus, in terms of its allocation between different categories of voter, is as important as its size

Chlamydia Pneumoniae CdsL Regulates CdsN ATPase Activity, and Disruption with a Peptide Mimetic Prevents Bacterial Invasion

Chlamydiae are obligate intracellular pathogens that likely require type III secretion (T3S) to invade cells and replicate intracellularly within a cytoplasmic vacuole called an inclusion body. Chlamydia pneumoniae possess a YscL ortholog, CdsL, that has been shown to interact with the T3S ATPase (CdsN). In this report we demonstrate that CdsL down-regulates CdsN enzymatic activity in a dose-dependent manner. Using Pepscan epitope mapping we identified two separate binding domains to which CdsL binds viz. CdsN221–229 and CdsN265–270. We confirmed the binding domains using a pull-down assay and showed that GST–CdsN221–270, which encompasses these peptides, co-purified with His–CdsL. Next, we used orthology modeling based on the crystal structure of a T3S ATPase ortholog from Escherichia coli, EscN, to map the binding domains on the predicted 3D structure of CdsN. The CdsL binding domains mapped to the catalytic domain of the ATPase, one in the central channel of the ATPase hexamer and one on the outer face. Since peptide mimetics have been used to disrupt essential protein interactions of the chlamydial T3S system and inhibit T3S-mediated invasion of HeLa cells, we hypothesized that if CdsL–CdsN binding is essential for regulating T3S then a CdsN peptide mimetic could be used to potentially block T3S and chlamydial invasion. Treatment of elementary body with a CdsN peptide mimetic inhibited C. pneumoniae invasion into HeLa cells in a dose-dependent fashion. This report represents the first use of Pepscan technology to identify binding domains for specific T3S proteins viz. CdsL on the ATPase, CdsN, and demonstrates that peptide mimetics can be used as anti-virulence factors to block bacterial invasion

When is Lift-Off? Evaluating Forward Guidance from the Shadow

Monetary policy decisions are typically taken after a committee has deliberated and voted on a proposal. However, there are well-known risks associated with committee-based decisions. In this paper we examine the record of the shadow Monetary Policy Council in Canada. Given the structure of the committee, how decision-making takes place, as well as the voting arrangements, the MPC does not face the same information cascades and group polarization risks faced by actual decision-makers in central bank monetary policy councils. We find a considerable diversity of opinion about the recommended future path of interest rates inside the MPC. Beginning with the explicit forward guidance provided by the Bank of Canada market determined forward rates diverge considerably from the recommendations implied by the MPC. There is little evidence that the Bank and the MPC coordinate their future views about the interest rate path. However, it is difficult to explain the basis on which median voter inside the MPC, as well as doves and hawks on the committee, change their views about future changes in policy rates. This implies that there remain challenges in understanding the evolution of future interest rate paths over time