A model of the determinants of expenditure on children's personal social services

Every year the United Kingdom central government assesses the relative spending needs of English local authorities in respect of the services for which is it responsible. This is done by estimating a Standard Spending Assessment (SSA) for each service, which is intended to indicate the spending requirements of an authority if it were to adopt a standard level of services, given the circumstances in its area. In practice, statistical methods are used to develop SSAs for most services. This report describes the findings of a study designed to review the methods for setting SSAs for a single service: personal social services (PSS) for children, which in 1995/96 accounting for about £1.8 billion of expenditure (4.4% of total local government expenditure). The study was commissioned by the Department of Health and undertaken by a consortium which comprised The University of York, MORI and the National Children’s Bureau. The study was guided by a technical advisory group, comprising representatives from the local authority associations and the Department of Health. In seeking to limit the length of the report, the authors have necessarily omitted a great deal of the technical material produced in the course of the study. We understand that the Department of Health is willing to make this material and the data used in the study available to interested parties, subject to certain confidentiality restrictions. Existing methodology for constructing SSAs had been the subject of some criticism, both in general and specifically in respect of children’s PSS. This document reports the results of a study designed to apply a radically new statistical approach to estimating the SSA for children’s PSS. Previous methods were based on statistical analysis of local authority aggregate data. In contrast, this study is based on an analysis of PSS spending in 1,036 small areas (with populations of about 10,000) within 25 local authorities. A relatively new statistical method known as multilevel modelling, which was originally developed in the educational sector, was used for this purpose.children, SSA, social services

Hospital benchmarking analysis and the derivation of cost indices

This paper reports work undertaken for the UK Department of Health to explore approaches to measuring and comparing hospital productivity. The purpose of the cost indices produced in this paper has been to use them to derive productivity scores for English NHS Trusts in order to benchmark them against one another to help identify poorer performers. The work builds on previous deterministic ‘efficiency indices’ by using statistical regression adjustment techniques. This work describes the derivation of three cost indices (CCI, 2CCI and 3CCI), each with increasing adjustment in terms of case mix, factor prices and environmental factors. The analysis uses data for the year 1995/6 and specifically examines acute Trusts. The CCI cost index is a deterministic index that takes into account case mix as measured by Healthcare Resource Groups (HRGs) and inpatient, first outpatient and accident and emergency (A & E) activity. It is a weighted index of actual / expected costs where expected costs are measured as average national costs per respective attendance. 2CCI takes factors into account such as additional adjustments for case mix, age and gender mix, transfers in and out of the hospital, inter-specialty transfers, local labour and capital prices and teaching and research costs for which Trusts might be over or under compensated. The 3CCI makes additional adjustments over and above those in the 2CCI for hospital capacity, including number of beds, and number of sites, scale of inpatient and non-inpatient activity and scope of activity. It therefore tries to capture institutional characteristics amenable to change in the long, but not the short run. 2CCI and 3CCI indices are obtained from a short-run regression model using CCI as the dependent variable, and productivity scores are obtained from the residuals of the regressions. The results suggest that the statistical adjustments reduce estimates of productivity variation between providers considerably, such that there is relatively little difference between providers in terms of fully adjusted (short-run) productivity scores (3CCI). This suggests that savings from bringing poorer performers up to those with higher productivity scores, may in fact be quite small. In the long run there may be more scope for productivity enhancement and savings than in the short run, by optimising capacity and activity levels. Productivity benchmarking results should always be tempered against judgements on the quality and effectiveness of service provision which these indices are currently unable to measure. Implicitly equating high cost to inefficiency, as these indices do, may also be problematic. The paper suggests that the use of panel data and the application of alternative methodologies (such as stochastic frontiers and Data Envelopment Analysis) would be a valuable way to extend this work.cost index, productivity

Estimating demand pressures arising from need for social services for older people

The twelve years preceding the introduction of the community care reforms in 1993/4 saw an increased demand for health and social services generated by the increase in numbers of older people (particularly the over 85s) and reflected in the rapid growth of residential and nursing home places over a twelve year period (from 224,000 in 1983 to 427,000 in 1994). While the move into the residential and nursing home sector was partly driven by the perverse incentives offered by social security in the early 1980s, it may also have reflected a real increase in the levels of dependency experienced by older people coming into contact with the services during the period. This has fuelled concern about rising costs. However, there are competing forecasts of how big a burden the costs of care will be. One of the difficulties is in determining how far the burden will fall on statutory services or formal services (provided by either the statutory or independent sectors) and how far the pool of informal carers will be large enough to maintain the level of care which it provides currently. The Institute of Actuaries published an influential paper in 1993 (Nuttall et al, 1993) suggesting that the current cost of informal caring based on a rate of £7 per hour could be estimated at £33.9 billion. The House of Commons Health Committee (1996) took evidence during 1995 and 1996 and concluded that the gloomiest forecasts were unfounded and that radical action was not needed in the immediate future. Nevertheless, whatever the predictions for the medium and long term, concerns have been raised with regard to current capacities to meet demand. The community care changes resulting from the Act were funded by a transfer, Special Transitional Grant (STG), to the local authorities with which to meet their new responsibilities. There has been a continuing debate as to whether the STG and the SSA allocations have been sufficient to enable them to do this. The Association of Directors of Social Services and the Association of Metropolitan Authorities (now subsumed into the Association of Local Government) have repeatedly called for a review of the current funding of community care saying they are unable to meet the full needs of dependent people (Community Care, 1996, 1997a).elderly, social services

Performance indicators and health promition targets

This paper discusses the usefulness of performance indicators in health promotion. Health promotion and target-setting in health have both risen to the fore in the light of the Health of the Nation White Paper. This coupled with increasing pressure on all sectors of health care to demonstrate their “value-for-money” have meant that health promotion activities are being scrutinised as never before. Performance indicators have been one suggested means of ensuring movement towards Health of the Nation targets and value-for-money in health promotion. The paper outlines the uses to which performance indicators have been put elsewhere in the NHS and argues that they are unlikely to be directly transferrable to health promotion. Criteria for successful performance indicators in health promotion are outlined. However, it is doubtful whether these criteria will be fulfilled to any useful extent at present. The theory of health promotion is characterised by many different views of what is an appropriate outcome measure of any health promotion intervention and therefore what will be an appropriate performance indicator. Consensus in theory is needed before any consensus on what is most suitable to measure is reached. In addition, any outcomes from health promotion, by its very nature, are likely to become apparent only over long periods of time, if at all. This reduces the likelihood of attribution and the feasibility of assigning responsibility for meeting targets. Nonetheless, there is some scope for performance indicators in health promotion and their use as an internal management tool and as mechanisms for reaching external micro and macro level health-related targets is discussed. A collection of suggested macro performance indicators from the Health Education Authority are evaluated according to the criteria developed earlier. It is argued that at present these do not qualify as performance indicators, although they are certainly useful as monitoring tools. The paper concludes with priorities for further research in this area. Despite the emphasis on target-setting brought about by the Health of the Nation, knowledge and expertise in performance indicators for health promotion is lacking. This is a matter of urgent concern. There are many complex conceptual and practical problems which will influence the future role and choice of performance indicators in health promotion. These range from the fundamental, differing views about the definition of health education and health promotion, to the practical, a lack of knowledge at the community level about how to start looking for indicators, and the technical, a lack of clear responsibility for meeting macro-level targets.performance indicators, targets

Economics and public policy 0 NHS research and development as a public good

This paper analyses National Health Service R&D as a Samuelsonian public good. It also identifies other characteristics of NHS R&D: supplier-induced demand; information asymmetries; jointness in production of R&D, medical education and health care; multiplicity in research funding sources; uncertainty about research outcomes; the difficulty of measuring and valuing research outcomes; and the behavioural characteristics of the institutions which produce R&D. The principal conclusion is that a centrally planned approach is unlikely to solve the problems arising from these characteristics, whereas the creation of an appropriate institutional and behavioural framework is more promising. The recent reforms in the arrangements for supporting R&D in the NHS can be seen as a response consistent with this analysis, are outlined and set in their historical context.R&D; supply and demand

Dental utilisation by young adults before and after subsidisation reform in Finland

Dental care was never fully integrated into the welfare state in Finland, but in 1986 it was decided to improve access to both publicly and privately provided dental care by reducing the price paid by patients. Since this would have been rather expensive to do for the whole population, it was decided to introduce it gradually, starting with the young adult population (those under 21 already had free publicly provided dental care). The so-called “Subsidisation Reform” (SR) was based on the assumption that the seeking of care would increase, as would the amount of care actually provided, and this increase would be spread across both the public and the private sectors. This study investigates the short-term effects of this reform. The seeking of care did increase, but the amount of care actually provided decreased and the changes were not evenly spread between the two sectors. The reasons for these changes are explored, and some of the inherent difficulties in evaluating health care reforms are set out, since they are likely to be of wider significance than this particular reform in Finland.reform, dental care

NICEly does it: economic analysis within evidence-based clinical practice guidelines

There is increasing professional and policy interest in the role of clinical guidelines for promoting effective and efficient health care. The NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme identified an urgent need, when such guidelines are produced, to develop a framework and methods for incorporating the best evidence of effectiveness, taking into account information on cost-effectiveness. This paper describes the development of recent evidence-based guidelines, for use in primary care, which were the result of recent work by the North of England Guidelines Development Group. Their specific aim was to incorporate economic analysis into the guideline process and treatment recommendations. The introduction of economic data raised some methodological issues, specifically: in providing valid and generalisable cost estimates; in the grading of cost ‘evidence’; in finding a presentation helpful to clinicians. The approach used was to help clinicians aggregate the various attributes of treatment to make good treatment recommendations, rather than interpret cost-effectiveness ratios. In none of the guideline areas was there adequate information to estimate a cost per quality-adjusted-life-year. In the light of this research, future areas of work are identified and some recommendations are made for the forthcoming National Institute for Clinical Excellence.evidence-based medicine, economic evaluation, clinical guidelines, NICE

The Relationship between Body Mass Index and Health-Related Quality of Life

Study Objectives: This paper explores the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), measured using EQ-5D, for men and women within a national population sample.Methods: Data were taken from the 1996 Health Survey for England, an annual survey commissioned by the UK Department of Health. HRQoL was measured using EQ-5D. Informants’ BMI was calculated from height and weight measurements collected by trained nurses. Details of any long-standing illness were also collected. Complete data was available for 11,783 cases aged 18 years or more. Main Results: There were significant differences in EQ-5D by BMI category, although the nature of the relationship between EQ-5D and BMI differed by gender. For women, significant differences in EQ-5Dindex could be observed for each BMI category, which was independent of age and the presence of long-standing illness. For men, being classified within the obese BMI range was associated with poor EQ- 5Dindex score, although this relationship disappeared after accounting for age and long-standing illness. The EQ-5D pain and mobility dimensions showed the greatest change in reported problems with increasing BMI. Analysis showed little relationship between BMI and the EQ-5D anxiety/depression dimension.Discussion: Most of the apparent relationship between BMI and HRQoL could be accounted for by age and the presence of long-standing illness. However women’s HRQoL did appear to be sensitive to their weight. Further investigation of the nature of the gender differences in the relationship between BMI and HRQoL would be useful.EQ-5D, UK, gender differences

Cost-effective safe motherhood interventions in low-income countries: a review

This paper reviews studies providing evidence of the cost-effectiveness of safe motherhood interventions in low-income countries. The economic case for investing in safe motherhood interventions is also examined. It is estimated that 1,600 women die globally each day as a result of problems during pregnancy or childbirth. A large proportion of these deaths is preventable. According to the World Bank, antenatal and maternal services comprise two of the six most cost-effective sets of health nterventions in low-income countries. Due to the problem of linking programme interventions with outcomes however, few cost-effectiveness studies currently exist. Despite this certain interventions are more cost-effective than others, such as substituting manual vacuum aspiration for dilatation and curettage when dealing with incomplete abortion. It is estimated that 26% of maternal deaths are avoidable through antenatal/community-based interventions, costing around 30% of the World Health Organisation’s Mother Baby Package. Ensuring access to high quality essential obstetric care can prevent a further 58% of maternal deaths, consuming 24% of total Mother Baby Package costs. Current evidence suggests that targeting investments on essential obstetric services would reap the greatest efficiency gains.safe motherhood; maternal mortality; cost-effectiveness

A critical structured review of economic evaluations of interventions for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a major cause of morbidity, mortality and resource cost amongst the elderly population. Hip fracture is the most serious of the osteoporotic fractures, with approximately 10-20% of patients dying within six months of sustaining a fracture. Furthermore, hip fractures are the most expensive manifestation of osteoporosis, incurring about 87% of the total costs of osteoporotic fractures. This public health and economic burden is likely to increase in developed nations due, in part, to ageing populations. In addition, there is strong evidence that the age-specific incidence of fracture is rising. There are a number of treatments which can be used to prevent fracture including hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonates, vitamin D and calcium. These interventions have been used for primary prevention, secondary prevention and the treatment of established osteoporosis. This Discussion Paper details the results of a structured review, the purpose of which was to identify and critically appraise economic evaluations relating to interventions for osteoporosis. The focus of the work is a critical assessment of the methodology of those studies. A total of 16 economic evaluations was identified on the basis of a computerised search of three bibliographic databases. All studies were based on decision analytical models and all took the form of cost-effectiveness analysis. Seven studies were from the US and four from the UK. The majority of studies focused on either primary prevention alone (seven) or both primary and secondary prevention where high-risk women were identified on the basis of bone mineral density screening (seven). Most studies considered the cost-effectiveness of HRT. Most of the published studies conclude that treatment using HRT is relatively cost-effective among symptomatic women or women who have had a prior hysterectomy. In contrast, for asymptomatic women, the results are more equivocal. The most recent cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken by the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) which makes the explicit assumption that HRT is the treatment of choice. For women unwilling or unable to take HRT, the next recommended treatment was alendronate; should alendronate not be tolerated, calcitonin was recommended. Many of the models included in the review exhibit methodological weaknesses which suggest heir results should be treated with some caution. One of these concerns the dearth of formally elicited health state preference data from patients or members of the public: only two studies in the review derive preferences empirically rather than use the authors’ judgement. A second limitation of many studies is the inappropriate application of costeffectiveness decision rules with the frequent use of average cost-effectiveness ratios. Areas of methodological controversy, such as whether or not to include costs unrelated to osteoporosis in life-years added as a result of treatment, increase uncertainty regarding how to interpret the results of the studies.osteoporosis, HRT